The original forecast targeted the first quarter of 2026.
Another quite successful prediction by @DKokotajlo : Fable is intentionally nerfed for frontier ML research. This is within ~3 months of Daniel's prediction of Q1 2026 (made in 2023).
Although I don't think Mythos is automating ML research to the same extent as his prediction.
Positive users praise DKokotajlo's track record after his earlier prediction that Fable would be intentionally nerfed for frontier ML research.
@a_karvonen Thanks! Note that this particular comment wasn't technically a prediction by me, so I shouldn't get that much credit. Iirc it was a hypothetical scenario I took seriously but wasn't my median timeline. At least that's what my fuzzy memory says.
Another quite successful prediction by @DKokotajlo : Fable is intentionally nerfed for frontier ML research. This is within ~3 months of Daniel's prediction of Q1 2026 (made in 2023).
Although I don't think Mythos is automating ML research to the same extent as his prediction.
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo source for the Kokotajlo comment?
@theojaffee @a_karvonen @DKokotajlo https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K2D45BNxnZjdpSX2j/ai-timelines
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Yes, "basically doing all the work itself" is incorrect, Anthropic just said explicitly it doesn't come close to replacing its researchers.
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Somebody should put this idea in a book!
Oh wait.
@allTheYud @So8res
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo It'd be crazy if Q3 is when all the frontier labs declare that we officially enter the era of ASI
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo ml tasks have not really improved since opus 4.6 iirc so they have probably been stealth nerfing since then, which was q1
@a_karvonen @wrongplace_eth @DKokotajlo DKokotajlo has a good track record with predictions and Fable nerfing is a big signal. His Q1 2026 call is looking more real by the day
@a_karvonen @DKokotajlo Real respect for him!
The original forecast targeted the first quarter of 2026.
Another quite successful prediction by @DKokotajlo : Fable is intentionally nerfed for frontier ML research. This is within ~3 months of Daniel's prediction of Q1 2026 (made in 2023).
Although I don't think Mythos is automating ML research to the same extent as his prediction.
