SWE-bench turns three amid a prediction that AI won’t replace software engineers within 10 years

In an October 11, 2026, post marking SWE-bench’s third anniversary, the author predicts that even far more capable AI coding agents won’t replace human software engineers in the next 10 years. They expect engineers to read and write less code and spend more time listening to users and directing agents. They also predict a major AI coding breakthrough within 18 months, while suggesting the software engineer role could be phased out in 25 years as new jobs emerge.