SpaceX's reported stranglehold on orbital launches has ignited fresh questions about whether that edge alone can underwrite an IPO valuation that aims for Facebook-level scale, especially with Starlink driving much of the current volume and Starship economics still unproven.
the question of $SPCX IPO; Is 5-10 years of de facto monopoly on the entire spacecraft industry worth ~one Facebook ?
SpaceX delivered ~90% of Earth’s payload mass to orbit in 2025
That’s nearly 9× more than the rest of the world combined
Plans call for a $1.75 trillion target valuation and $75 billion raise at $135 per share, numbers that invite direct comparisons to Facebook's 2012 debut and its rocky early trading, though independent verification of the exact 90 percent payload-mass figure remains limited to Musk's internal data.
Launch counts show clear leadership, yet the bulk of missions tie to Starlink and the precise mass-share claim lacks third-party audit, leaving open how much of the premium rests on forward-looking bets versus today's proven throughput.
Many users highlighted SpaceX's 90% share of global orbital payload mass as strong justification for its valuation and a multi-year headstart in space industries.
@menhguin Whoa that’s frankly like the best justification of their valuation I’ve heard so far
the question of $SPCX IPO; Is 5-10 years of de facto monopoly on the entire spacecraft industry worth ~one Facebook ?
@menhguin Earth companies operate a certain way and can only be so much, I don’t know if that rule applies to space companies
of course, it's not just spacecraft. the actual profit and revenue comes from Starlink and (currently terrestrial) datacentres.
@menhguin yknow when u put it like that
@yishan i like to collapse complex decisions down to a single number w very few assumptions: currently, we know SpaceX is alr 90% of launch volume. we know China+other providers are working on relaunchables as well, so it's 5-10 year headstart
@menhguin Whoa that’s frankly like the best justification of their valuation I’ve heard so far
@GogOnMuhGog thats why i said 5-10 years
@menhguin Give China a few years lol. Remember how Tesla was in 2020 compared to now.
@yishan @menhguin Yes. But 90% of it is their own product. Stsrlink
@yishan the more important thing IMO is this gives spacex a 5-10 year headstart on every single space industry where launches have been a bottleneck. this is where most near term revenue is actually coming from (Starlink, DCs)
@yishan i like to collapse complex decisions down to a single number w very few assumptions: currently, we know SpaceX is alr 90% of launch volume. we know China+other providers are working on relaunchables as well, so it's 5-10 year headstart
@menhguin Might worth 10 Facebook
@tenobrus
@yishan @menhguin This how I see it
@menhguin Haha you are bold. I’m very pro China but I don’t dare buy Chinese stocks or inject Chinese research glp1s lol
@renuraman @yishan which is highly profitable, sticky and fast growing