Reactions from ranked influencers
5 posts
@VictorTaelin Basically have kids
I think these who fear "AI will take my jobs" ultimately fall to the following logical trap: "the value of my work might go down to zero (true), thus I'll not be able to afford the things that I could afford otherwise (false)". Obviously, if the value of everyone's work goes to 0, then so does the *cost* of everything. Models are getting better at everything, so, there's no realistic scenario where YOU stop being valuable yet you still need to pay the same to all the goods and services you consume. But that is somehow a hard conclusion to make. If I'd predict the future, this is how I think things will work out. First, AI will take nearly all jobs that can be done behind a computer. Period. Stop coping. I'm glad I don't need to measure my words. That IS happening. Fable is almost implementing Bend on its own, in many instances it feels more competent than myself, and I've hardly met a single human I'd attribute that title to. Accept reality. Second, once software and math becomes trivial and people get used to the fact they can conjure programs and proofs beyond human comprehension - once that becomes the new normal - science will turn its attention head to elsewhere. In particular, SF nerds will be pikachu-shocked to find out that solving math/swe doesn't automatically solve hunger, climate, violence, biology. So, these will become the next big thing in the frontier of science. Third, and this is where most are worried about - what happens to our jobs? This discussion will become more and more prevalent and some think UBI will be the solution. I don't think so. I think UBI will not be *needed* because the cost of everything will naturally go down to zero. I think this point is easy to visualize for things behind a screen. That utility app you pay a $20 / mo for? You will stop paying for it, because a local AI will rebuild the thing for $0.1, and someone will publish it for free. A 100% open App Store will probably emerge, and will be massively adopted because quality will be so high, and people don't want to pay for things they can get for free at higher quality. This is "auto-UBI" for software. We all can afford it now, not because the gov is sending us a $5k check every month, but because the cost of the thing is zero. If you accept that, then, it shouldn't be much harder to accept this will ALSO happen, to a large extent, to things in the real world. The food you eat, the water you drink, the car you ride. Real world goods cannot go down to literal zero because atoms aren't copiable, but their production will be so aggressively automated, each on their own way, that the practical result will be nearly the same. You'll walk into a store, grab stuff, and go home. You'll make a hand gesture, get into an auto driving car, and go wherever you want to. And if you think that's not going to happen, that's probably because you have this "but who pays for it?" on your mind. And that's the catch, nobody does. AI robots are producing all the stuff needed to sustain it in such an enormous abundance that there is basically no cost. "What prevents vandalism and abuse?" - Laws don't stop working, they get better too. This is so hard to visualize because we were born to live in a world where you must work to *survive*. This is so axiomatically ingrained in our brains we can't imagine another way. Your children will not live in this world. This is the future of humanity, and it will happen sooner than you expect. I'm not denying the transition won't be turbulent and I'm not invalidating these who are afraid. Some fields (swe for example) will be gone faster than others, and that IS a real concern. In particular, I think we should put a lot of pressure in ensuring this transition happens as smoothly as possible. But once it lands, humanity will be in a much better position than it is today. Your children will not work to live. They will just... live. And they'll look at work scales as view slavery today. Which is how it should be
I think these who fear "AI will take my jobs" ultimately fall to the following trap: "the value of my work might go down to zero (true), thus I'll not be able to afford the things that I could afford otherwise (false)". Obviously, if the value of everyone's work goes to 0, then so does the *cost* of everything. Models are getting better at everything, so, there's no realistic scenario where YOU stop being valuable but you still need to pay the same to all the goods and services. But that is somehow a hard conclusion to make. If I'd predict the future, this is how I think things will work out. First, AI will take nearly all jobs that can be done behind a computer. Period. Stop coping. I'm glad I don't need to measure my words. That IS happening. Fable is almost implementing Bend on its own, in many instances it feels more competent than myself, and I've hardly met a single human I'd attribute that title to. Accept reality. Second, once software and math becomes trivial and people get used to the fact they can conjure programs and proofs that no human developer or mathematician would be able to replicate in their lifetimes - once that becomes the new normal - science will turn its attention head to elsewhere. In particular, SF nerds will be pikachu-shocked to find that solving math/swe doesn't automatically solve hunger, climate, violence, biology. So, these will become the next big thing in the frontier of science. Third, and this is where most are worried about - what happens to our jobs? This discussion will become more and more prevalent and some think UBI will be the solution. I don't think so. I think UBI will not be *needed* because the cost of everything will naturally go down to zero. I think this point is easy to visualize for things behind a screen. That utility app you pay a $20 / mo for? You will stop paying for it, because a local AI will rebuild the thing for $0.1, and someone will publish it for free. A 100% open App Store will probably emerge, and will be massively adopted because quality will be so high, and people don't want to pay for things they can get for free at higher quality. This is "auto-UBI" for software. We all can afford it now, not because the gov is sending us a $5k check every month, but because the cost of the thing is zero. If you accept that, then, it shouldn't be much harder to accept this will ALSO happen, to a large extent, to things in the real world. The food you eat, the water you drink, the car you ride. Real world goods cannot go down to literal zero because atoms aren't copiable, but their production will be so aggressively automated, each on their own way, that the practical result will be nearly the same. You'll walk into a store, grab stuff, and go home. You'll make a hand gesture, get into an auto driving car, and go wherever you want to. And if you think that's not going to happen, that's probably because you have this "but who pays for it?" on your mind. And that's the catch, nobody does. AI robots are producing all the stuff needed to sustain it in such an enormous abundance that there is basically no cost. "What prevents vandalism and abuse?" - Laws don't stop working, they get better too. This is so hard to visualize because we were born to live in a world where you must work to *survive*. This is so axiomatically ingrained in our brains we can't imagine another way. Your children will not live in this world. This is the future of humanity, and it will happen sooner than you expect. I'm not denying the transition won't be turbulent and I'm not invalidating these who are afraid. Some fields (swe for example) will be gone faster than others, and that IS a real concern. In particular, I think we should put a lot of pressure in ensuring this transition happens as smoothly as possible. But once it lands, humanity will be in a much better position than it is today. Your children will not work to live. They will just... live. And they'll look at work scales as view slavery today. Which is how it should be
also I (obviously, duh) think gaming, sports, music, events, and every entertainment industry, will boom when everyone isn't working anymore. necessarily scarce assets (land, crypto, fame) will also have value. in short, what AGI will do is bring down the cost of anything that can be copied (i.e., bits of information) to zero, the cost of anything that can be produced (i.e., goods and products) to near-zero. everything else remains valuable the one milestone that would make say "hey I was actually right" is if HOC is able to manufacture chips in Brazil in 2-3 years. not because we built a foundry like TSMC, but because AGI found clever ways to turn atoms into computing devices. designs that are so simple and elegant we can do it at home
@infix_fun that's the thing everyone gets wrong. people in power don't need to do anything. with universal AGI, we don't NEED them. example: → AGI is here → production costs drop → food prices stay the same → small startups use AGI to capture that gap → food prices drop and so on