The results? Much better! 🚀 Result: holdout error 9.6 - almost matching Vegas. 🤝
Good, but not perfect. So we tried use more data. I won't go through every detail, but in general, we added injury / availability (who's actually playing tonight), player ratings + projected lineups, richer per-game box scores, and player tracking / shot data
Users cheer the boosted NBA margin model with injury and tracking data, noting single-game randomness while showing clear excitement for the Knicks.
So, what's the model predicting for Game 3? 🏀 Knicks 108–105, Knicks 59% to win.
That sits right between Vegas (57%) and a separate Monte Carlo "blend" model (68%).
Player projections: • Brunson ~27 pts / 7 ast (±8) • Towns ~18 / 11 reb • Wembanyama ~25 / 11 reb (±9)
The results? Much better! 🚀 Result: holdout error 9.6 - almost matching Vegas. 🤝
It's off-course not betting advice - single NBA games are that random. That's the entire point. 🏀🤖
Go Knicks! 🧡💙
So, what's the model predicting for Game 3? 🏀 Knicks 108–105, Knicks 59% to win.
That sits right between Vegas (57%) and a separate Monte Carlo "blend" model (68%).
Player projections: • Brunson ~27 pts / 7 ast (±8) • Towns ~18 / 11 reb • Wembanyama ~25 / 11 reb (±9)
The results? Much better! 🚀 Result: holdout error 9.6 - almost matching Vegas. 🤝
Good, but not perfect. So we tried use more data. I won't go through every detail, but in general, we added injury / availability (who's actually playing tonight), player ratings + projected lineups, richer per-game box scores, and player tracking / shot data