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    An estimated one-year divide between fast and slow AI takeoff

    A user quotes Claude saying “fast” meant days to months for three AI thinkers, while “slow” meant a few years.

    Boaz BarakBB
    Scott AlexanderSA
    2 Sources, 50m ago, first seen ago

    TLDR

    A user asked Claude to estimate what Paul Christiano, Robin Hanson and Holden Karnofsky meant by “fast” and “slow” AI takeoff. Claude put the dividing line at about one year and said none of the three meant decades by “slow.” The user added that “longer than one year” still looked good, even if takeoff were counted from October 7, 2026.

    Combined views

    2.7K

    2 Sources, first seen 50m ago

    Combined views

    2.7K

    2 Sources, first seen 50m ago

    52 likes
    50m
    52 likes
    6 comments
    4 saves
    4 reposts
    6 comments
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    4 reposts
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    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

    Today's Rank

    #5

    Today's Rank

    #5

    2 Sources

    Scott Alexander@slatestarcodexI asked Claude >> "When people like Paul Christiano, Robin Hanson, and Holden Karnofsky discussed takeoff speeds, what do you think they defined as a "slow" vs. "fast" takeoff, in terms of literal amount of time? What would you have called the boundary? Please give a specific number (ie "one second" or "one thousand years"). Please provide quotes if possible." Claude answered: >> "In clock time, the line these three were arguing across sat at about one year. "Fast" meant days to months, and "slow" meant a few years. None of them used "slow" to mean decades. That was Bostrom's older scale, and by it all three were really "moderate" takeoff people." I think even if we define the start of the takeoff as today (???) , "longer than one year" still looks good.50m
    Boaz Barak@boazbaraktcsRT @slatestarcodex: @allTheYud I asked Claude >> "When people like Paul Christiano, Robin Hanson, and Holden Karnofsky discussed takeoff…29m

    2 Sources

    Scott Alexander@slatestarcodexI asked Claude >> "When people like Paul Christiano, Robin Hanson, and Holden Karnofsky discussed takeoff speeds, what do you think they defined as a "slow" vs. "fast" takeoff, in terms of literal amount of time? What would you have called the boundary? Please give a specific number (ie "one second" or "one thousand years"). Please provide quotes if possible." Claude answered: >> "In clock time, the line these three were arguing across sat at about one year. "Fast" meant days to months, and "slow" meant a few years. None of them used "slow" to mean decades. That was Bostrom's older scale, and by it all three were really "moderate" takeoff people." I think even if we define the start of the takeoff as today (???) , "longer than one year" still looks good.50m
    Boaz Barak@boazbaraktcsRT @slatestarcodex: @allTheYud I asked Claude >> "When people like Paul Christiano, Robin Hanson, and Holden Karnofsky discussed takeoff…29m