Ten governors’ races in the 2026 midterms could help determine the rules for 67.4 gigawatts of planned data centers, according to Emily Peck’s reporting for Axios. Axios cites an October analysis by research firm Cleanview estimating the associated AI infrastructure investment at $2.5 trillion. Axios notes that the planned capacity exceeds all data center capacity currently operating in the U.S. The figures describe planned projects, not operating facilities.
Investors are watching races in states where projects are planned but construction has yet to begin, Axios reports. Morgan Stanley public-policy researcher Ariana Salvatore told Axios that governor races deserve particular attention; the outlet reports that state leaders have tangible power over building. Axios also cites Beacon Policy Advisors analyst Maxwell Shulman, who pointed to places with substantial planned construction, competitive statewide races and candidates who differ on data center policy.
Texas accounts for 25% of planned data center construction, according to Axios. Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa supports a moratorium on new data centers until tougher rules are established. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has imposed a limited pause on permits, though critics have documented permits still moving forward, Axios reports. “I’d say Texas is No. 1,” Shulman told the outlet.
New restrictions on a project that has not broken ground could delay construction and put loans or bonds at risk, Axios reports. Axios reports Morgan Stanley’s counterpoint: slower construction could reduce borrowing needs. Axios cautions that even an election outcome adverse to AI investor sentiment would not necessarily cause a broad stock sell-off or end AI spending.
