@scaling01 Charts OpenAI P50 Time Horizons Since January 2026

@scaling01 posted analysis of OpenAI internal P50 time horizons. The posts state that horizons rose 6.18 times from January to July 2026, reaching 4.7 hours. They report endpoint doubling time of 2.28 months and fitted doubling time of 2.18 months, with a 95 percent confidence interval of 1.46 to 5.23 months. Charts show sigmoid fits to monthly curves and note a slowdown in March plus a June outlier. The account runs LisanBench, a custom LLM reasoning benchmark, and frequently shares technical scaling observations.