Polymarket odds for the reinstatement of Anthropic's Claude Fable fall to 24% by July 1

this is tragic i didn’t think http://dayswithoutfable.com would have to handle triple-digit numbers

@yacineMTB Consider stateside brother, I am. This only gets worse from here, and it won't be limited to Anthropic.

@TheZvi Wouldn't Anthropic just leave Fable 5 off the market and release a new better one if it lasted much longer?

I think you’re wrong on that b/c the other companies work with the government more effectively and not snobby v EA who have a God complex. And they answer the phone and emails.

And the other companies have been working with the government longer, except for xAI bit onvoously EM has worked with the government for decades.

@MelindaBChu1 @yacineMTB Yes, but Anth doesn't just want geolocks, that doesn't slow development. They want a global coordinated pause on advancement itself.

@AndrewCurran_ @HiaIchiro7430 @yacineMTB I think geolocks are possible but imo not the likeliest outcome.

At this point I'm pretty sure the reason for the Fable ban are genuine security concerns (instead of political maneuvering), and geolocks don't really adress that problem.

@rjmacleod_dev Depends if they treat everyone the same or if this is just another attempt to murder Anthropic.

Boeing had 737Max planes grounded for years? b/c they weren’t safe. This is no different than the government stepping in for the

And Anthropic / EAs say AI is dangerous & the biggest risk to society and the world, so rationally (lol) they should think this is good.

Anthropic specifically dug their own grave in many ways and this started back in Biden admin.

@Quinurum @AndrewCurran_ @HiaIchiro7430 @yacineMTB That's illegal under EO12333.

@yacineMTB Wow I just realized you might be permablocked because you’re Canadian

@TheZvi What about US living abroad?

@Quinurum @HiaIchiro7430 @yacineMTB They didn't ask for this though, this was Anths choice. They asked for Fable to be restricted to US citizens only. Anth effectively had no choice because it was impossible to comply with this, but this is the direction it will go.

@TheZvi I would not read too much into the market as I attempted to trade it, and was told as long as you are from US + Canada + Western Europe this contract is not offered to you.

@PlastiqSoldier Yes, if and only if it is easier to get Fable 5.1 approval than 5.0.

@MelindaBChu1 @yacineMTB You are correct, but it won't be the company's decision. If it does arrive, it will come from the USG and it will be industry wide.

@umnovd @jlffinance I think even low-liquidity markets tend to be meaningful but yeah you can only get serious volume in the July 1 contract for now as they just added the others. My guess is the long contracts are trading too high.

@TheZvi Rip 💀

@jlffinance @TheZvi I don’t know much about market impact you get on these things, but when liquidity is that low it is hard to get meaningful exposure. E.g. one might not even bother to trade because it is hard to get 1K exposure -> information stays off the market -> market is inefficient

lol, if 1 frontier lab is paused / destroyed isn’t that better than everyone accelerating in the world? Anthropic just doesn’t want themselves to be the one paused.

People are forgetting EAs tried to coup sama and destroy OpenAI just in 2023, 2 1/2 years ago and had no remorse.

Continued to do the same thing as OpenAI & arguably more dangerous which is why this is all playing out now.

@yacineMTB Maybe next time don't insult repeatedly key decision makers in NatSec.

Basic sales skills.