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An economist and a futurist walk into a bar. The economist takes a sip of his drink. "Ugh, if only people understood basic economics. High-skilled immigration alone would do wonders for US growth." Futurist: "Oh yeah? Say 100 million immigrants moved to the US, each matching the best human experts in every economically relevant field. Big deal?" Economist: "Massive. Transformative." Futurist: "What if they also worked longer hours and faster than any American?" Economist: "Even better." Futurist: "What if they were extremely frugal — consuming only the bare minimum needed to keep working?" Economist: "A near-100% savings rate? Better still!" Futurist: "What if they were very clumsy and physically weak, so they could only do some kinds of work?" Economist: "They could still do all cognitive labor — that's over half all wages! Somewhat less good, sure. Still transformative." Futurist: "What if their skin was grey, almost metallic, from some kind of accident?" Economist: "Who cares?!" Futurist: "What if they were AIs?" Economist: "3% growth per year, tops. There'd be bottlenecks. Honestly, the people predicting explosive growth from AI should learn some economics."
@RyanGreenblatt It's funny because it's true.
@RyanGreenblatt If 100 million skilled immigrants showed up in the US, would the economist predict >3% growth? "Working wonders" is pretty vague.
@jasoncrawford Yes, but economists typically don't even predict a large one time increase when they claim to accept the premise! (Like "not all economists" ofc, and overall I'm a fan of the profession.) See here:
@RyanGreenblatt Hmm… I expect high growth rates from AI, but I'm not sure this analogy holds exactly. No one-time influx of immigration would permanently raise the growth rate of the economy, at least not if something like Chad Jones's semi-endogenous growth model holds