DeepMind's Demis Hassabis predicts AGI will arrive within a few years
He compares its impact to fire, warning of critical biosecurity risks.
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Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsI don't believe (as Demis Hassabis claims here) that the impact of AI will be 10x the industrial revolution, because I think that humans in 1945 had more than 10% of all useful knowledge, at least as weighted by impact on living standards.
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TB Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsObviously we'll never reach a point where we know literally everything, but I think the number of highly impactful inventions and discoveries (airplanes, refrigeration, atomic bombs, general relativity, etc.) is finite and we probably have more than 10% of them today.
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BS Buck Shlegeris@bshlgrsI love the question "what proportion of useful knowledge do humans have"; seems like a great exercise to investigate operationalizations of this. I think that weighting by impact on living standards might be pretty conceptually confusing. Like, I'm not sure how you'd…
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TB Timothy B. Lee@binarybits@bshlgrs I think there are a couple of questions here. One is whether you think the economy will continue to be dominated by human consumers, or whether AI/robots will become economic actors in their own right.
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TB Timothy B. Lee@binarybitsThis tweet has attracted a number of objections and counterarguments and it's striking that almost all of them are about medicine. *If* we get rapid progress in AI, it's very likely to be mainly in medical advances like curing cancer and extending lifespans.…
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