Reactions from ranked influencers
5 posts
I'm concerned the US has a major interceptor problem.
Two U.S. Servicemembers were killed, and one is currently missing-in-action, following an Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack Friday, July 17, against military installations in Jordan, according to a statement issued moments ago by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).
Why did POTUS suddenly pivot from "unconditional surrender" to a deal at any cost in Iran? TL/DR it's the interceptors, stupid. - it takes Lockheed >two years and $5-15m to make a missile interceptor - i.e., $10k drones take a $5m missile to defeat - our forecast was that a) the population was going to rebel and b) we’d quickly take out the missile launchers - But: Iran murdered 50k protesting citizens before our forces were in place; we didn’t defeat the launch capability as fast as expected - we were facing down dwindling interceptor supplies - 50% of patriots are gone and 80% of Thaad interceptors are gone. They cannot be replaced in a relevant timeframe - if we actually ran out of defenses, US and allies in the region would be slaughtered— and the US would be facing a historic defeat - we're already rationing interceptors, which is why our soldiers died in Jordan last night and why there are no more Patriots in Ukraine. - in this context we try to make any deal you can — regardless of cost. Pretend it’s about gas prices if we must. So we are losing this war. Badly. And what really lost the war was the fucked up defense supply chain that can’t make munitions in a relevant cost or timeframe — and we have no technology that defeats the enemy in an economically sustainable way. This is why advanced anti drone and advanced missile defense is so critical. Personally I am bullish on directed energy intercept, particularly space-based directed energy. Regardless of specific technology, we must be able to build interceptors faster and cheaper than any enemy can build offensive weapons. Against China right now we lose. Badly. It isn’t even close. Fortunately we are learning this lesson against Iran not against China—and there is still time to pivot and fix the US industrial base, but only barely.
@bscholl Strong disagree, but I love you, and we can debate this when I see you at dinner tonight 🤣 1) the US is crushing both Iran and China here 2) as much as the US’ supply chain has been set back, China’s has been set back 10x worse 3) stockpile numbers are classified
IMHO, if the US wants to maintain its absolute military dominance, the only way to go about it is to ramp up weaponization of space. Everything else is a stop-gap measure, at best.
The US has a major missile defense crisis. The Patriot and THAAD interceptors work but are far too costly and time consuming to make. We need startups building scalable cheap interceptors—ideally space-based directed energy so the marginal cost to kill is zero https://twitter.com/centcom/status/2078530691109974522
The US has a major missile defense crisis. The Patriot and THAAD interceptors work but are far too costly and time consuming to make. We need startups building scalable cheap interceptors—ideally space-based directed energy so the marginal cost to kill is zero
CENTCOM Statement on Recently Fallen, Missing U.S. Service Members TAMPA, Fla. — On July 17, two U.S. service members in Jordan were killed in action as U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) and partner forces defended against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks. Additionally, one service member is currently missing. Four American service members were medically evacuated to Jordanian hospitals. They have since been discharged. Other personnel who were evaluated for minor injuries have returned to duty. Out of respect for the families, CENTCOM will withhold additional information, including the identities of the fallen warriors, until 24 hours after the next of kin have been notified.