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    Unverified figures put Baseten's gross margin at 17% in its most recent quarter

    A user shares an unverified Rednote claim that Baseten cut its full-year gross-margin guidance from 30% to 20%.

    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭MN
    Jinyan SuJS
    2 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    A user says they could not verify Rednote figures claiming Baseten's gross margin was 17% in its most recent quarter and its full-year guide fell from 30% to 20%. The claim attributes the pressure to demand outstripping contracted capacity, forcing Baseten to buy expensive short-term compute. It also says Cursor's share of Baseten's annualized revenue went from 57% in April to 28% in September, with roughly 4% gross margin on that business. The user notes that Baseten does not disclose its margins.

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    2 Sources, first seen 2h ago

    Combined views

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    2 Sources, first seen 2h ago

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    2 Sources

    Jinyan Su@SuJinyan6Saw this on Rednote and found it surprising (I am not able to verify it). It claims Baseten's gross margin was 17% in its most recent quarter, with the full-year guide cut from 30% to 20%. The stated reason: demand outran contracted capacity, so they're buying expensive short-term compute to keep customers served. It also says Cursor went from 57% of Baseten's annualized revenue in April to 28% in September, and that Baseten makes only ~4% gross margin on it. I knew inference margins were well below SaaS, and way below data startups (I covered this in my earlier post on NVIDIA and open-weight models). But the public number reported for Fireworks is ~50%. Baseten doesn't disclose its own. 17% would be a very different business. These numbers don't match what I'd learned about inference economics. But there's supporting evidence at another company: OpenAI reportedly told investors its adjusted gross margin fell from 40% to 33% in 2025, because it had to buy pricier compute at the last minute. I couldn't find a public source for the Baseten numbers. The closest thing: CEO Tuhin Srivastava said in June that a cloud provider quoted him $5.10/hr to renew a B200 cluster in October, up from $2.63. A 94% jump. It's getting harder to tell which number to believe, and harder still to see where this is going.2h
    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭@menhguinRT @SuJinyan6: Saw this on Rednote and found it surprising (I am not able to verify it). It claims Baseten's gross margin was 17% in its mo…1h

    2 Sources

    Jinyan Su@SuJinyan6Saw this on Rednote and found it surprising (I am not able to verify it). It claims Baseten's gross margin was 17% in its most recent quarter, with the full-year guide cut from 30% to 20%. The stated reason: demand outran contracted capacity, so they're buying expensive short-term compute to keep customers served. It also says Cursor went from 57% of Baseten's annualized revenue in April to 28% in September, and that Baseten makes only ~4% gross margin on it. I knew inference margins were well below SaaS, and way below data startups (I covered this in my earlier post on NVIDIA and open-weight models). But the public number reported for Fireworks is ~50%. Baseten doesn't disclose its own. 17% would be a very different business. These numbers don't match what I'd learned about inference economics. But there's supporting evidence at another company: OpenAI reportedly told investors its adjusted gross margin fell from 40% to 33% in 2025, because it had to buy pricier compute at the last minute. I couldn't find a public source for the Baseten numbers. The closest thing: CEO Tuhin Srivastava said in June that a cloud provider quoted him $5.10/hr to renew a B200 cluster in October, up from $2.63. A 94% jump. It's getting harder to tell which number to believe, and harder still to see where this is going.2h
    Minh Nhat Nguyen 🦭@menhguinRT @SuJinyan6: Saw this on Rednote and found it surprising (I am not able to verify it). It claims Baseten's gross margin was 17% in its mo…1h