A two-year prediction for AI to beat humans on a benchmark, revisited

In September 2024, one user said they would bet that general models would exceed human performance on a benchmark within two years. Another user returned to that prediction after setting a two-year reminder. Their comments used different wording: on September 14, 2026, they wrote, “I think all of our timelines have increased.” A later comment, dated September 15, said, “I think our timelines to capable AI have decreased.”