A two-year prediction for AI to beat humans on a benchmark, revisited
A September 2024 post predicted general models would exceed human performance on a benchmark within two years. A user revisiting it two years later offered different takes on AI timelines.
TLDR
In September 2024, one user said they would bet that general models would exceed human performance on a benchmark within two years. Another user returned to that prediction after setting a two-year reminder. Their comments used different wording: on September 14, 2026, they wrote, “I think all of our timelines have increased.” A later comment, dated September 15, said, “I think our timelines to capable AI have decreased.”
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