AI investment returns versus the cost of capital

A post says aggregate hyperscaler return on incremental invested capital (ROIIC) peaked near 40% in Q1 2026, far above an estimated cost of capital of about 8%. It says consensus expects ROIIC to fall to around 23% in Q3 2027 as the current capital-spending wave enters the calculation’s denominator, before recovering toward roughly 35% by 2030. The author argues that policy-rate changes of 25–75 basis points are unlikely to materially alter AI investment decisions while returns remain so far above capital costs—not that monetary policy is ineffective, but that tighter policy’s weight will fall elsewhere in the economy.