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    AI capabilities could leap, plateau and then accelerate again

    A user predicts automated R&D could drive sharp AI gains within about nine months, before compute and data limits slow progress.

    Richard NgoRN
    Samuel Hammond 🦉SH
    2 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    A user predicted in October 2026 that automated R&D would make AI capabilities appear to leap within about nine months, bringing unusually fast progress in fields including science and medicine—but not immediate runaway self-improvement. They expect slower gains for months to a few years, followed by a possible breakthrough, perhaps in hardware, that could enable a much bigger leap.

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    2 Sources, first seen 2h ago

    Combined views

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    2 Sources, first seen 2h ago

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    2h ago
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    2 Sources

    Samuel Hammond 🦉@hamandcheeseMy prediction for RSI is a secret 3rd thing. Within about 9 months, capabilities will seem to discontinously leap to crazy high levels in most domains thanks to automated R&D, but fall short of a full Yudkowskyan "foom." People will declare that ASI is here. Progress in math, science, medicine, digital services, etc. will be unprecedently fast. Diffusion will partially solve itself through capabilities, although many barriers will remain. Incumbent industries will start turning over and the economy will be ripping. There will be growing waves of institutional disruption, cyberattacks, lots of crazy shit happening etc., but it will be basically tolerable. Overall, it will feel like a new Renaissance has begun. GPT will even compose a fugue that brings Dean Ball to tears. After the RSI leap, capability improvements will be more linear than super-exponential given compute and data constraints. We'll be matmul-ing at the theorerical optimal. There will be many freaky alignment failures but alignment science will itself be automated, putting the worst doomer fears to rest. This quasi-plateau will last on the order of months to a few years, giving the techno-optimists ample time to spike the football. But it will be a kind of false vacuum. At some point not long after RSI 1.0, a breakthrough of some kind (perhaps hardware related) will raise the theoretical capability ceiling by multiple OOMs, at which point we foom for real.2h
    Richard Ngo@RichardMCNgoRT @hamandcheese: My prediction for RSI is a secret 3rd thing. Within about 9 months, capabilities will seem to discontinously leap to cra…1h
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    2 Sources

    Samuel Hammond 🦉@hamandcheeseMy prediction for RSI is a secret 3rd thing. Within about 9 months, capabilities will seem to discontinously leap to crazy high levels in most domains thanks to automated R&D, but fall short of a full Yudkowskyan "foom." People will declare that ASI is here. Progress in math, science, medicine, digital services, etc. will be unprecedently fast. Diffusion will partially solve itself through capabilities, although many barriers will remain. Incumbent industries will start turning over and the economy will be ripping. There will be growing waves of institutional disruption, cyberattacks, lots of crazy shit happening etc., but it will be basically tolerable. Overall, it will feel like a new Renaissance has begun. GPT will even compose a fugue that brings Dean Ball to tears. After the RSI leap, capability improvements will be more linear than super-exponential given compute and data constraints. We'll be matmul-ing at the theorerical optimal. There will be many freaky alignment failures but alignment science will itself be automated, putting the worst doomer fears to rest. This quasi-plateau will last on the order of months to a few years, giving the techno-optimists ample time to spike the football. But it will be a kind of false vacuum. At some point not long after RSI 1.0, a breakthrough of some kind (perhaps hardware related) will raise the theoretical capability ceiling by multiple OOMs, at which point we foom for real.2h
    Richard Ngo@RichardMCNgoRT @hamandcheese: My prediction for RSI is a secret 3rd thing. Within about 9 months, capabilities will seem to discontinously leap to cra…1h