New Epoch AI piece worth reading (also thanks for the shout out on one of my tweets!): Their best guess is that OpenAI is ~10-15% of the world's operational compute at end-2025, and even adding Anthropic, xAI, and the labs inside Google and Meta, the frontier still uses under half the global total.
OAI + ANTH + xAI together: fewer than 4M H100e (OpenAI ~1.7M, Anthropic 1M+, xAI ~600-700K) out of a ~16M world stock.
Google owns ~25% of all AI compute and Meta ~10%, but most of that runs Cloud and recommender systems, not DeepMind or MSL. It's not even clear DeepMind out-computes OpenAI.
Obvious caveat is the future will look a lot different than the past. Frontier labs are obviously growing a lot faster and could consume 80%+ in just the next 2-4 years given the fast ramp.