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    API revenue as a potential offset for losses on Claude’s $200 plan

    Using figures they explicitly call made up, a user sketches how API spending driven by subscribers could cover subscription losses and support aggressive expansion.

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    11 Sources, ,

    TLDR

    One user makes a hypothetical case for Claude’s $200 plan: average usage could be well below the maximum offered, limiting subscription losses, while API business driven by those subscribers could cover the gap. The argument assumes margins around 90%. The user explicitly says the specific numbers are made up and argues that breaking even could justify aggressive expansion.

    Combined views

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    11 Sources, first seen 23d ago

    Combined views

    324.1K

    11 Sources, first seen 23d ago

    4.9K likes
    23d ago
    first seen 23d ago
    4.9K likes
    243 comments
    339 saves
    140 reposts

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    243 comments
    339 saves
    140 reposts

    Sentiment

    Positive——Negative

    Summary

    Not enough discussion yet.

    No sentiment analysis available yet.

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    11 Sources

    @blakeirfree tier access to the most expensive models should basically work like Clash Royale chests
    @xeophonokay I can see how you can spend $7K/d on research in API cost equivalent data analysis goes brrrrrrrrrrrrr
    @cjcFuture generations will hear stories of a brief period when $200/month bought you seemingly unlimited access to the world’s most expensive intelligence, the way we talk about $2 Ubers now.
    @harjtaggarRT @cjc: Future generations will hear stories of a brief period when $200/month bought you seemingly unlimited access to the world’s most e…
    @paularamblesFuture generations will hear stories of a brief period when intelligence cost $200/month, the way we talk about paying 10¢ per text message now.
    @AustenFuture generations will look at the models we’re paying $200/month for and wouldn’t use them for free. You wouldn’t be able to pay them to use them.
    @thdxri know this is not the point but here's the math on this claude is expensive, 90% margins wouldn't be crazy that means if the average user of the $200 plan spends $2000, they break even. even if they offer $8000 max, the average will be less let's say the average is $3200 - so they lose $1000 per user here the api business these users drive (which is 90% margin) just has to cover this if they have 1M $200 subscribers (probably overestimate) that's $1B in loss. they just need $10B in api spend for it to break even (which they have) if they can break even then yeah run it aggressively till you consume the world these specific numbers are made up but hopefully you can see it's not as dumb as you imagine
    @menhguin"API pricing equivalent" has got to be the new "ARR". If Minimax is pulling 70% margins then it would not surprise me if Anthropic and OpenAI are pulling 90% margins.
    @beffjezosThe real threat to the business model of the centralized labs building one god model to rule them all is an ecosystem of specialized post-trained small open source models The latter is far more natural and cost-effective than the former, and it's what the market actually wants

    11 Sources

    @blakeirfree tier access to the most expensive models should basically work like Clash Royale chests
    @xeophonokay I can see how you can spend $7K/d on research in API cost equivalent data analysis goes brrrrrrrrrrrrr
    @cjcFuture generations will hear stories of a brief period when $200/month bought you seemingly unlimited access to the world’s most expensive intelligence, the way we talk about $2 Ubers now.
    @harjtaggarRT @cjc: Future generations will hear stories of a brief period when $200/month bought you seemingly unlimited access to the world’s most e…
    @paularamblesFuture generations will hear stories of a brief period when intelligence cost $200/month, the way we talk about paying 10¢ per text message now.
    @AustenFuture generations will look at the models we’re paying $200/month for and wouldn’t use them for free. You wouldn’t be able to pay them to use them.
    @thdxri know this is not the point but here's the math on this claude is expensive, 90% margins wouldn't be crazy that means if the average user of the $200 plan spends $2000, they break even. even if they offer $8000 max, the average will be less let's say the average is $3200 - so they lose $1000 per user here the api business these users drive (which is 90% margin) just has to cover this if they have 1M $200 subscribers (probably overestimate) that's $1B in loss. they just need $10B in api spend for it to break even (which they have) if they can break even then yeah run it aggressively till you consume the world these specific numbers are made up but hopefully you can see it's not as dumb as you imagine
    @menhguin"API pricing equivalent" has got to be the new "ARR". If Minimax is pulling 70% margins then it would not surprise me if Anthropic and OpenAI are pulling 90% margins.
    @beffjezosThe real threat to the business model of the centralized labs building one god model to rule them all is an ecosystem of specialized post-trained small open source models The latter is far more natural and cost-effective than the former, and it's what the market actually wants