5h ago

Big Tech AI Investments Show Negative ROI Amid Trillion-Dollar Spending

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Original post
Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus#153@GARYMARCUSOPYoshikYoshik@ASKYOSHIK

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly. Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive. This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era. Incredible technology does not automatically mean sustainable economics. The internet survived. Most internet companies didn't. Right now hyperscalers are spending trillions hoping future demand catches up to present capex. That's not certainty. That's a leveraged bet.

9:08 PM · May 27, 2026 View on X
QUOTE POSTGary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus#153Gary Marcus, MIT PhD and NYU Professor Emeritus@GARYMARCUS

just imagine what will happen to the economy and people’s retirement funds if these projections from FT are correct.

brace for bailouts.

YoshikYoshik@AskYoshik

The AI numbers are starting to look very ugly. Even under "best case" assumptions, FT's own data shows Microsoft AI ROI at -9%, Google at -15%, Meta at -28%, Oracle at -35%. Only Amazon barely comes out positive. This is exactly why I keep comparing this to the dot-com era. Incredible technology does not automatically mean sustainable economics. The internet survived. Most internet companies didn't. Right now hyperscalers are spending trillions hoping future demand catches up to present capex. That's not certainty. That's a leveraged bet.

4:08 AM · May 28, 2026 · 410.8K Views
2:38 PM · May 28, 2026 · 39.6K Views