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    Rumor

    TSMC posts record Q3 profits and strong Q4 guidance, reaffirming robust AI chip demand

    A post citing Taiwanese press reports revenue of $46.72 billion and record profit of $23.6 billion.

    2 Sources, 2h ago, first seen 2h ago

    TLDR

    A post citing Taiwanese press says TSMC reported $46.72 billion in revenue and record profit of $23.6 billion, up 68% year over year, with fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $52.3–$54.3 billion. The post says management assessed AI financing, data-center construction and component supplies before concluding demand still exceeds supply. According to the post, TSMC said AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%-plus compound annual growth projection through 2029.

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    2 Sources, first seen 2h ago

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    2 Sources, first seen 2h ago

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    Image: @aleabitoreddit on X

    Sentiment

    Positive81.8%18.2%Negative

    Summary

    Many accounts welcomed TSMC's record earnings and Texas expansion talks with Musk because of strong fundamentals, growth, and cash flow, while others worried the stock kept falling amid AI capex and overbuild risks.

    Based on 45 sentiment-bearing replies from 42 accounts across 2 conversations.

    Sentiment

    Positive81.8%18.2%Negative

    Summary

    Many accounts welcomed TSMC's record earnings and Texas expansion talks with Musk because of strong fundamentals, growth, and cash flow, while others worried the stock kept falling amid AI capex and overbuild risks.

    Based on 45 sentiment-bearing replies from 42 accounts across 2 conversations.

    2 Sources

    Serenity@aleabitoreddit$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic. For analyst Q&A rounds: Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components. Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029. This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff. Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility) A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial. It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand. Q: On pricing power: A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight. (Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press) Regarding earnings, very strong: as usual - TSMC record profits of $23.6B (68% Y/Y growth), and revenue jumping to $46.72B, beating expectations. - Q4 Guidance was $52.3-$54.3B revenue off 65-67% gross margins. TLDR: - No signs of any slowdown or collapse as AI demand far exceeds supply for foreseeable future. $TSM is probably the fundamental proxy/canary to how the overall AI semi trade is doing. - On financing concerns and fear of overcapacity showing up in semiconductor demand: $TSM specifically examined the risks investors are concerned about now and assessment still points to unmet demand. During the Q&A session, Wei said AI demand was "very, extremely strong," with absolutely no signs of slowing. Underlying AI semi supply chain growth is healthier than recent market panic suggest.2h
    Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay$TSM is exploring a Texas expansion and is in discussions with Elon Musk about Terafab as $SPCX and $TSLA scale their ambitions across AI, robotics & chipmaking. What’s really interesting is that Musk could own the facility while TSMC operates the fab inside it potentially lowering expansion costs while bringing advanced chip production closer to both companies.1h
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    2 Sources

    Serenity@aleabitoreddit$TSM released earnings today. I was more curious about commentary given recent the market panic. For analyst Q&A rounds: Q: Citi explicitly challenged TSMC on AI financing, HBM, CoWoS, lasers and the risk of overbuilding capacity A: $TSM assessed CSP capex, DC construction conditions, customer financial conditions, and supply of critical components. Management's conclusion is still that "demand exceeds supply". As well as that AI accelerator revenue growth could exceed its previous 50%+ CAGR projection through 2029. This is a more meaningful statement since it addresses some concerns regarding recent selloff. Q: JPM asked if wafer supply could be tighter in 2027 than in 2026 (demand visibility) A: Wei (Chairman/CEO) stated $TSM even sends staff to verify DC construction progress on site. And after assessing all the factors, TSMC believes gap between supply and demand remains substantial. It could not determine whether the extent of the gap given customers continues to increase demand. Q: On pricing power: A: Wei responded that there is "no ceiling on TSMC's profitability" but that profits will not surge dramatically overnight. (Source: NextApple, Taiwanese press) Regarding earnings, very strong: as usual - TSMC record profits of $23.6B (68% Y/Y growth), and revenue jumping to $46.72B, beating expectations. - Q4 Guidance was $52.3-$54.3B revenue off 65-67% gross margins. TLDR: - No signs of any slowdown or collapse as AI demand far exceeds supply for foreseeable future. $TSM is probably the fundamental proxy/canary to how the overall AI semi trade is doing. - On financing concerns and fear of overcapacity showing up in semiconductor demand: $TSM specifically examined the risks investors are concerned about now and assessment still points to unmet demand. During the Q&A session, Wei said AI demand was "very, extremely strong," with absolutely no signs of slowing. Underlying AI semi supply chain growth is healthier than recent market panic suggest.2h
    Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay$TSM is exploring a Texas expansion and is in discussions with Elon Musk about Terafab as $SPCX and $TSLA scale their ambitions across AI, robotics & chipmaking. What’s really interesting is that Musk could own the facility while TSMC operates the fab inside it potentially lowering expansion costs while bringing advanced chip production closer to both companies.1h
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    Today's Rank

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