Analyst Kim Isenberg highlights how the top $200 monthly tiers for ChatGPT Pro and Claude Max appear to grant heavy users compute resources worth thousands of dollars, framing the plans as deeply subsidized offerings from OpenAI and Anthropic that far exceed the sticker price for power users.
oh and check out my newsletter, where i wrote about it http://getsueprintel.com :)
Subscription plans are massively subsidized.
And by massively, I mean absurdly:
Claude Max 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $8,000
ChatGPT Pro 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $14,000
The $8,000 and $14,000 figures originate in the newsletter analysis and lack independent confirmation, while separate estimates for equivalent Claude usage range from roughly $2,000 to $5,000 in API terms.
Even at lower confirmed valuations the flat-rate plans still deliver substantial headroom over standard tiers, which may explain their appeal despite ongoing questions around exact provider costs.
Some users praise the subsidized AI Pro Plans as a game-changing value, while many others angrily dismiss the subsidy claims, insult the discussion, and call API prices absurdly overpriced.
You could say that, but at same time API prices are likely significantly inflated and many users of sub plans probably not using it all too. In the end the math is working out for these companies. And doubt it will change much in future, at least regarding models of similiar scales as opus 4.8/gpt 5.5 - if we get some 10T or 20T models those might not make sense to even sell as part of sub anymore. But don't think most users even need those anyway.
@PawelJLisowski good call and i agree. many people subscribe to $20 or $20 and dont even use their weekly rates.
Subscription plans are massively subsidized.
And by massively, I mean absurdly:
Claude Max 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $8,000
ChatGPT Pro 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $14,000
Recently, we purchased one of each Anthropic/OpenAI subscription plan and randomly ran long horizon coding tasks until we exhausted the weekly limit. It's widely believed that a $200/month plan maxes out at ~$2000/month worth of tokens (assuming API pricing). However, we found that the subscriptions are actually far more generous. (2/4)
@kimmonismus Not really. These plans take into account that not every user will use it 24/7.
@kimmonismus That's not true any more.
I've used Claude Max before the rate cuts and capped at $5k (constantly paused). Now it's less than $4k in Claude and $2.5k in codex (yes... way less).
If anybody can show me a better gpt stat I'd be impressed and know I'm doing something wrong there.
@decruz Yeah, but that doesnt make the calculation wrong. Semi Analysis just tested how much value you could get from their subscriptions. And seeing OpenAIs cash burn Id say its still heavily subsidiesd. So the take is correct.
@azed_ai i mean, Anthropic is getting cash-positive, right
@kimmonismus This if you use all of it ofc which is rare
@kimmonismus The real question is how long the subsidies can keep going
ye and the economics of scale are wild for these companies. nobody knows exact numbers but inference got A LOT more efficient. They probably have 90%+ margin on API tokens for models like opus 4.8 or gpt 5.5. I reckon on average they still profit from subs, just less. If they had enough enterprise users to eat up all their compute reliably they'd degrade subs in a heart beat.
@PawelJLisowski @kimmonismus I've seen some yt video debunking claims of such gigantic subsidy. For $200 plans it's likely they subsidize it below $1000 (costs on energy and infra).
So API usage might be charging like 20x more than what it costs the company.
oh and check out my newsletter, where i wrote about it http://getsuperintel.com
Subscription plans are massively subsidized.
And by massively, I mean absurdly:
Claude Max 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $8,000
ChatGPT Pro 20x: $200/month, with usage reportedly worth around $14,000
@kimmonismus It’s literally just customer acquisition I’m scared for what happens when they get past this stage
@kimmonismus I thought you're smarter than this, but I guess not.
Massively subsidized compared to what? Themselves?? Electricity is cheap. Intelligence from electricity actually cost pennies. That's why deepseek scares them, it's the only one showing actual true cost of inference.
I don't really know if any of this is true, but even if it is, who cares. $200 per month with caps is still excessive. We need to shift to an unlimited affordable plan. And these companies need to get their act together on costs so that consumers are not subsidising their incompetence.
@cristian_is_c Semianalysis, probably the best source in AI / Chip market.
@tomhacks interesting, i mean, still good value, but way below what SA found out
@kimmonismus It will only get cheaper
@kimmonismus From where do you got these prices?
@kimmonismus Yeah, now I can see if after the copilot sub becomes expensive
