The COVID-19 Risk Level For Group Gatherings In Each US County, Visualized
Just two weeks before Thanksgiving, coronavirus cases in the United States hit a new daily high Thursday, as more than 163,000 Americans tested positive for the virus, according to the New York Times. The COVID-19 death toll also climbed by 1,172 on Thursday, while some 67,000 Americans remain hospitalized.
The skyrocketing number of cases comes as many Americans are considering their Thanksgiving plans, which typically entail small to medium-size indoor family gatherings of young and old alike.
Speaking to CBS News in mid-October when daily cases numbered around 60,000, the nation's top infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci urged Americans to rethink their holiday plans. "I think given the fluid and dynamic nature of what's going on right now in the spread and the uptick of infections, I think people should be very careful and prudent about social gatherings, particularly when members of the family might be at a risk because of their age or their underlying condition," he said.
"Namely, you may have to bite the bullet and sacrifice that social gathering unless you're pretty certain that the people that you're dealing with are not infected," he continued.
Ensuring that all attendees are uninfected, however, is easier said than done — even among small groups.
The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, led by Professor Joshua Weitz and Professor Clio Andris at the Georgia Institute of Technology, illustrates the risk level of attending an event like Thanksgiving based on the gathering's size and location. In this case, risk level is defined as "the estimated chance (0-100%) that at least 1 COVID-19 positive individual will be present at an event in a county, given the size of the event."
So, what would the risk level be attending an event with, say, just 10 people in Dallas County, Texas? According to the tool, there is an 18% chance that at least one of the attendees would have the coronavirus, as of this publication. At a larger gathering of 25 people, the risk level goes up to 38%.
What is the risk level where you live? Explore the maps below to find out.
Risk Level At An Event With 10 People
Risk Level At An Event With 20 People
