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- joe8pack, on 09/22/2008, -0/+1 It is now day 20 since Gustav hit. The US has been losing 1.5 to 2.0 barrels of gasoline production a day. 20 X 1.75 is a big number. Inventory was 187 mb when the hurricane hit. Since we only had about 90 mb of usable inventory to start with (the other half is stuck in a pipe somewhere) you don’t need to have a Ph.D. in mathematics to figure out were we are. The inventory at the end of pipe is falling daily!
Since we have only seen serious shortages in some of the SE states, apparently the industry is playing the most advanced game of Whack-The-Mole in history. The media has obviously been constrained enough to prevent wide spread panic and a national run on supplies. There will be, however, one node, one junction in this maze of piping when the oil and pipeline people will not get together in a totally coordinated fashion. The inventory is just getting too low to keep this game up much longer.
When that happens the whole eastern part of nation will run out, at the same time. Panic will ensue! It will take months to get the nation running again. It will take draconian restrictions on businesses and people to put the supply back together again. Coupled with the present ongoing financial market crisis, the prognosis is not good!
As I posted here awhile ago, US gasoline production has been down between 1.5 to 2 mb/d per day since Gustav arrived on the first. That is at least 30 - 35 mb of production that has been lost since the hurricane hit. In the mean time the eastern part of the nation has been motoring along fairly well. Product supplied was hardly down last week.
Inventories should be down 30 - 35 mb. Last week they came in at 185 mb. These numbers do not add up. We are using product that can’t be there! Inventory has to be somewhere between 155 - 160 mb. Where is it coming from? This is an enigma!
There is only one place that the supplies we are using could be coming from. The Colonial pipeline, for instance, requires 19.5 mb to fill from Houston to NYC. 56% of that is probably gasoline. In essence they are dumping the pipe. The pipeline is being tapped at node junctions and the product is being shipped east by tanker car or truck. As tin-foil as this sounds, it is the only explanation. 35 mb of gasoline did not just start growing on trees... - chacac, on 09/20/2008, -0/+0Watch video here:
http://videonewsland.com/?z=Tennessee_Gas_Shortage ...
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