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See the original image at flickr.com —

Is the war in Georgia related to the Iran blockade?

flickr.com — One thing the Georgia war has accomplished is to deny Russian troops access to Georgian territory. This may plug a major hole through which Russia could have supplied or armed Iran.

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  • Hangly, on 08/11/2008, -1/+24Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan might be another hole in the blockade, but I'm still not sure whose side (if any) they are on. My research indicates there are neither Russian nor American troops in either country.
  • 2bsbc, on 08/11/2008, -1/+28Russian supply line into Iran? Interesting...
    • Hangly, on 08/11/2008, -2/+9We know they've been supplying them, and south through the Caucuses is the most convenient route.
    • Shellius, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2Western Concern Grows Over Oil, Gas Pipes Through Georgia

      " That announcement came shortly after Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said that Russian warplanes had staged a raid near the 1,774-kilometer BTC pipeline, the world's second longest. Inaugurated in 2006, the pipeline which carries oil from Azerbaijan on the shores of the Caspian to Western markets via the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. It is capable of transporting 1.2 million barrels a day.

      BP has a 30% stake in the pipeline, which cost $3 billion to build, along with some 10 other partners including U.S. oil groups Chevron Corp. (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP)."

      http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf50 ...
  • 911ArtStudent, on 08/11/2008, -0/+25Excellent maps here:
    http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2008/08/good-map ...

    http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2008/08/fyi-maps ...

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_VH0DmsF39UE/SJ45d5ojugI/ ...
    • Hangly, on 08/11/2008, -0/+5Yeah, my map kinda sucks :P
      • MarkEarhart, on 08/11/2008, -0/+9You've shown most people more than they already knew, assuming they bother to look.
      • Hangly, on 08/11/2008, -0/+8I didn't know Russia had 14,000 troops stationed in Armenia until I looked it up.

  • 2bsbc, on 08/11/2008, -0/+21IMF has been In Kazakhstan. Looks like they're open to the highest bidder.
    http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2008/043008.htm
    • Hangly, on 08/11/2008, -0/+9I saw that. I also read that they're prospective members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. So who knows?
  • stormkrow, on 08/11/2008, -2/+21A little more perspective about the chess board and pieces in play:

    http://www.rense.com/general82/grand.htm

    The pipeline is being financed and built by an international consortium led by oil major BP and also comprising Azeri state oil company SOCAR, Statoil, Unocal, TPAO, Eni Agip, Total Fina Elf, Itochu and Amerada Hess.
    • ramiro, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1BURIED for mentioning discredited and immoral rense.com
  • stormkrow, on 08/11/2008, -1/+13Had to do some more digging around for this article, but it really puts things into the right perspective. ALWAYS Ask yourself: Who Benefits?
    http://www.rense.com/general82/msm.htm

    07-21-2008:
    "With tensions growing between Russia and Georgia, I still maintain that if Bush has three brain cells capable of firing at the same time, he had better cut a deal with Iran and fast.. take his oil pipeline SOUTH THROUGH IRAN since he will not get it through Georgia and he will not get the Turkmenistan ­ Afghanistan ­ Pakistan pipeline done, either in his administration or his lifetime. He has squandered any 'good will' with Russia, Afghanistan and Pakistan."

    The Georgia Pipeline was the last hope, but the Neo-Cons have been checkmated.
    • D1ckFace, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1Excellent link - It helps put into perspective why all this has blown up.
    • mistertrogdor, on 08/12/2008, -0/+0I am astonished.
  • groggyboy, on 08/11/2008, -0/+6where's china in all this? they are a rising world player with a huge need for oil. it seems to me they would also want to get their fingers in this pie.
    • Hangly, on 08/12/2008, -0/+4China has a 25 year deal for oil and natural gas with Iran. It has its own oil production, but no longer enough to export and not enough to cover expected future demand.

      Both China and Japan import a good deal of their oil from Iran. If there is a blockade Japan can probably be intimidated into just suffering, but China may try to defy it. They need that oil.

      I can't think of any other reason the US would need three carrier groups in the Persian gulf. That many ships aren't needed merely to seal off the strait to Iranian shipping. If the Chinese navy tries to escort some tankers through the blockade on the other hand...
      • slowmo, on 08/12/2008, -1/+2I kind of hope, for selfish reasons, that Japan gets hit hard by an oil crunch. If they are forced to put all of their efforts toward developing alternative energy technology we will surely see something awesome come of it.
    • D1ckFace, on 08/12/2008, -1/+1They're too busy hosting the "one world one dream" olympics.
  • FrankHope, on 08/12/2008, -0/+4Take a look at the map and you'll see that Russia can easily supply Iran via the Caspian Sea thus defeating the US naval blockade of the Persian Gulf.

    Also Russia has signed a deal with Iran to build a pipeline supply India and Pakistan with Gas from Iran. This is a direct consequence of the US led embargo of Iran since France was originally signed up to build this pipeline.
    http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-07-14-voa4.cfm
    • Hangly, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2Yeah, I noticed that.

      Convoys across the Caspian would make it more difficult and dangerous to move large amounts of troops and hardware though, and it would be practically possible to do so covertly.

      I'm just speculating though. It could in fact be all about shutting down the flow of oil between Iran and Russia. Or perhaps about both.
  • D1ckFace, on 08/12/2008, -3/+3It's all about oil natural gas energy security (who gets it and when). Central Asia holds about 5% of all the worlds discovered natural gas and Oil – possibly more. These resources are landlocked both physically and politically. There are four routes via pipelines out (Iran south, Russia North, Afghanistan east and Georgia west) for these resources and two major consumers China & Europe). Russia want to control the flow of these resources and hence affect the price as it will have a bearing on their own reserves. US/UK want to avoid this ‘being held to ransom’ factor that Russia will have in this case. Considering the four routes, Georgia is the main route to the west. Russia is effectively, by this invasion, gaining control over the flow of resources to the west since there is no route south or east. If this route is controlled by Russia, then it will mean very high prices for oil and natural gas for the EU – with the added threat of ‘being held to ransom’ by turning off the supply in order to influence world geopolitics. With regards to an ever increasing China demand the US also want to build a pipeline east through Afghanistan into china but this is proving difficult with the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan.. Don’t forget that the central Asian ‘Stans’ don’t have the technology to extract the resources themselves – it’s the AIOC conglomerate which is made up from 11 western oil companies BP, Exxon along with the British Government who is the main shareholder! Iran simply won't let the AIOC use their pipes to export this oil and gas to the south. The only safe route was Georgia and now this will be controlled by Russia..This can only lead to 4 things. 1) Increased prices and increased ‘being held to ransom’ of the west by Russia as they control the flow of resources. 2) War/negotiations with Russia to get back control of ‘Westernised’ Georgia. 3) Invasion of Iran to gain control over their pipelines to the south. 4) Free energy devices. Which are heavily suppressed will finally be allowed to flourish and do away with this tiresome oil and war thing forever. (As can be seen in this article: www.spiritofmaat.com/archive/feb2/lindemnn.htm )
  • GSX606, on 08/12/2008, -2/+2So when do we attack Iran?
    • Hangly, on 08/12/2008, -1/+2Probably pretty soon.
    • jabberwolf, on 08/12/2008, -2/+1There wont be an invasion of Iran, just a bombing of their nuclear fuel sites.
      The west doesnt want them to have nukes, but definitely wants them to sell their oil and gas.

      There will be angry words, condemning etc.. and 1 year later it will be business as usual. Oh there will be a few terrorist attacks in retaliation but business will continue as usual.
    • ciaran036, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2Never.
  • TheAIMBoy, on 08/12/2008, -1/+2Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are also as much as part of this as Iran and the Middle East.
    http://www.baltic-course.com/eng/baltics_cis/?doc= ...
    I think it's time to gear up for WW3
  • richmomz, on 08/12/2008, -0/+6Russia has free access to Iran via the Caspian Sea so this theory doesn't fit. However, Georgia is host to a supply line of a different kind - that of Caspian Sea crude oil to the west. Without Georgia, there is no way to get the oil without the consent of an "un-westernized" nation.
    • Hangly, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2You're right. And there's the eastern overland route as well.

      Who knows what our government is thinking. It looks like Russia is going to clobber Georgia, and I can't see how that would be in anyone's interest aside from maybe Russia.
    • jabberwolf, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1SHHHH!! You guys are ruining the conspiracy.
      I mean this included the US, neocons, and I'm still trying to see where they can fit Israel and zionists into this.
      But you're ruining it !!
  • DuggDowner, on 08/12/2008, -1/+3As the Uzbeks go, so goes the region.
  • mistertrogdor, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2Hmm. Iran looks pretty screwed.
  • jabberwolf, on 08/12/2008, -1/+1Um dudes??

    Georgia was on our side to begin with!! They would not supply Iran with arms or allow Russian transport.
    Are you saying that Russia invading Georgia helps this??? HUH???
    Or are you saying that an invasion and THEN withdraw enforces this?

    This makes no sense at all as Iran had PLENTY of other borders to receive supplies from.

    Not to mention the UN agreed to strengthen sanctions against IRAN before the Georgian invasion. The movement of a couple more ships would have happened REGARDLESS of the Georgia situation.
  • MacSuxWindozSux, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1Good eye.
    The Russians could very well have intentionally escalated the situation. Looking like they are close to being able to pipe oil directly from Iran, once they annex Georgia.
  • stormkrow, on 08/12/2008, -1/+1Word on the ground is that prior to the build up and eventual flare up. Georgia's president at the prodding of his Neo-Con corporate sponsorship was in the process of appropriating the land at gun point; necessary for the Georgia Pipeline Expansion Project. The Neo-Con corporate sponsors know that time is running out for the current administration and wants the deal done and construction to begin.
    The locals didn't take to kindly to having their homes and farms "appropriated" and lobbied their Russian allies for help.
    Georgia thought it would be a push over sent some troops (possibly mercenaries as well) to terrorize the populace.
    Russia laid the smack down.
    The No-Cons watched the Olympics and talked out the sides of their mouths.
    End of story.
  • stormkrow, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2The Caspian Oil Story in full; draw your own conclusions in their current context.
    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2002/aug2002/casp-a30 ...
  • Shellius, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2There are 3 pipelines in Georgia, one major one. All wars from now on will be about resources of some kind, or what Bush calls "American interests". aka "human interests", -- which apparently includes pipelines.
    And thanks for the Caspian Oil Story.

  • Kizilbash, on 08/12/2008, -1/+1Excuse me? Russia has more access to Georgia now than it had before.

    Anyway, if they want to supply Iran, I'm sure there is plenty of Caspian Sea they can use...
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