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Is China the Next Japan?

chinaexpat.com — For years economists have wondered whether the inevitable rising power of China was similar to Japan in the 1980s. If you remember (and that requires you to be over 22), people used to think that Japan was an unstoppable beast destined to take over the world. Movies and popular media frequently made reference to this, of in now-comical ways.

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  • phpLover, on 11/05/2007, -12/+2Mybee, but i don't really beleive that ... :)
  • usha49, on 11/05/2007, -6/+6There is no doubt that china is making fast progress. Chinese goods have captured markets of the world. In India also u will find Chinese items every where.The items are cheap too!
    • attention, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1i think its similar, but japan just happened faster and evened out faster. china will become bigger and will even out in a bigger way but further in the future.
  • schuchwun, on 11/05/2007, -8/+63naw china will never be like japan. china is more lead based and japan is more sex based.
    • Nudar, on 11/05/2007, -14/+4China is a third world country and always will be. Japan is first world and always will be. Sorry China.
      • loganhid, on 11/03/2007, -4/+4LOL watch in the next 50 uears chine be first world and US be third world (that is if it is still run by morons)
      • Jelfish, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1If raping pillaging and murdering several hundred thousand people and then denying it is a sign of a first world country, then sure.
    • spillwater, on 11/04/2007, -3/+2that and its environment can only support so much industrialization. theres so much up der place. factors beside those that are economic will prove precedent to economic factors themselves-- dope them rice and dip in buttah fellas cause tires make a race tom cruise. yeah yeah... f'k y'all too.
      • rune420, on 11/04/2007, -1/+2The first sentence made sense. Then your comment took a turn somehow.
      • benedictkenny, on 11/04/2007, -1/+2que?
    • sanman, on 11/03/2007, -0/+3It all depends on how China's political system evolves. What if the communist party starts to fragment or suffer schisms? That could cause catastrophe. Don't think it couldn't happen. Absolute power corrupts absolutely -- guaranteed.
      • known, on 11/03/2007, -2/+3A country is not made of land; a country is made of its people.
        • kuzotz, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1A nation is made up of people..

          A country aka state is a combination of a governing body with defined territory.
      • known, on 11/04/2007, -3/+2A country is not made of land; a country is made of its people.
  • msaleem, on 11/05/2007, -13/+18With respect to the economy, China will blow Japan so far out of the water that people will be like Japan who? At the same time I don't know whether China will be able to emulate that success in medical and technological research and innovation.

    Just my thoughts
    • fuzzmeister, on 11/03/2007, -1/+13I think that can be attributed to China's gigantic population, and therefore their gigantic economic potential. Whether they can reach the same level of technological prowess as an economy and society as Japan is dubious, though.
      • Zique, on 11/03/2007, -2/+3Why do you think it's dubious?
        • fuzzmeister, on 11/05/2007, -4/+14Mainly because of their undemocratic system of government, which has a trickle-down dampening effect on innovation in the society. I could be wrong, though.
      • kuzotz, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1if they do.. Then let the resource wars begin1!!!!!!!!!
    • razishaban, on 11/03/2007, -5/+10China will just have a bigger collapse...
      • monkeyrun, on 11/03/2007, -2/+14China's collapse is going to ***** the US so hard that we'll all wish we are Canadian citizens.

        I think you better wish for China not collapsing for now.
      • aukxsona, on 11/03/2007, -0/+3I agree...with you and monkey run both. However, a collapse is eminent. Their inflation is rising as our dollar falls. The only way China could hold off a collapse is to sell it's bonds and move to more European markets. We'd be *****, but they would survive. However, they are our friends and would never do that...right?
    • over90000, on 11/03/2007, -3/+7I guess you haven't seen the quality of research coming out of China lately.
      • twomeyw23334, on 11/03/2007, -3/+13True, they have been reverse engineering some high quality products lately.
    • Tanktunker, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1It's just Japan.
      There's no second word to replace the "Who".
    • Salgat, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2China is in a stage where the majority of its workers haven't received the economic benefit that the rest of the country has. Once workers start making fair and decent wages, any hopes of cheap products quickly disappear. China is communist, so they can control this to some extent, but as the country modernizes more, who knows.
      • Urusai, on 11/03/2007, -1/+5It's not Communist except in name. It's actually far closer to an aristocracy.
        • haterrade, on 11/03/2007, -1/+3there really hasn't been any communist country based on the true marxian ideals..communism as it's been implemented (or atleast falls into by the end) and believed to be by the mass public is something along the lines of an aristocracy
      • ZellD, on 11/03/2007, -0/+0It is more complicated than that. Along the coast China is heavily capitalistic, whereas inland rural villages tend to have a much more socialistic economy. More than that, China has been in a capitalistic phase for the past decade. However, in the recent communist party meeting it was proposed to have a sort of reverse course against pollution, poverty, greed, etc. For the sake of the Chinese people I hope this means a middle path, though history has shown China to be a bit... excessive in its political movements...
    • orca94, on 11/03/2007, -0/+5If they can't emulate Japan's success in technological innovation then how are they going to blow Japan's success out of the water? Manufacturing can only grow your economy at a rapid point to the point at which your tied with the second cheapest manufacturer out there.
  • ZipKodiak, on 11/05/2007, -5/+3they certainly have had some amazing growth but with such a large population it makes you wonder if they won't suffer from the same problems as the Russians had
    • Gavagai80, on 11/04/2007, -3/+5Amazing growth is easy when you start from zero. China's stated, highly optimistic goal is to quadruple their economy by 2020 so that the average chinese person will be as rich as the average mexican. In another century or two they'll reach the russian standard of living.
  • whymanwhy, on 11/05/2007, -6/+55Is turkey the new ham? Is Cuba the new Mexico? Are bicycles the new cars? Is David Blaine the new Hilliary Clinton? All very valid hypothetical questions.
    • natedouglas, on 11/04/2007, -3/+21Is whymanwhy the new Socrates? Only time will tell.
    • gettophilosophr, on 11/04/2007, -7/+3@natedouglas
      Dugg for bitching. ;-)
  • whatthefu, on 11/05/2007, -11/+23No, China's too big to sustain itself in the long run; its government doesn't know how to handle *****.
    • khpmli, on 11/05/2007, -4/+27so you're saying that china is new USA?
    • ZellD, on 11/03/2007, -2/+0The CIA gives China a 50 percent chance to collapse within the next 20 years. Is that poitically motivated and bias? Sure. But there are a number of compelling reasons for it. I'm not sure if Hu Jintao can really deliver on his promises while keeping the ecomonic and political gentry happy.
      • yifes, on 11/04/2007, -0/+0That's bad news for us when all their nukes go missing
    • monkeyrun, on 11/05/2007, -2/+2contrary to what the US media tells you, the Chinese government is very efficient.

      When they want something done, it will be done fast.

      Yeah they are "communists", but they are ran more like a business. And frankly, they have the US by the balls, so yeah if China goes down, we are going down with them.

      So keep telling yourself China will collapse for the next 30-50 years.
    • ZellD, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1That is exactly why they are considered unstable. When they want something done, they get it done quickly, often without regard for the consequences of their actions. Cultural revolution, Great Leap Forward, Deng Xiaoping's economic "miracle".... that's a highly unstable way to run a society. So far they've made it out, but they've come quite close to revolution on a number of occasions. The latest reverse course policy suggested is going to disenfranchise many business, political, and military leaders. That's a dangerous thing for a government to do.
  • theinept, on 11/05/2007, -5/+77The difference is that Japan gave us Sony and China gives us Sorny.
    • maddskillz, on 11/03/2007, -11/+5Which leads to the question, which company is crappier
    • Branyers, on 11/03/2007, -1/+2...and Magnetbox and Panafonics.
    • Kanidia, on 11/03/2007, -3/+6China also gave us Lenovo, which is one of the top 10 computer companies. And if you consider Taiwan part of China, it also gave us Acer, and Asus, some of the top leaders for computers in Europe. Not to mention BenQ, the 20 inch LCD monitor I'm using right now.
      • vitasoy, on 11/03/2007, -6/+1iirc, yahoo and dlink from taiwan too
        • Kanidia, on 11/03/2007, -2/+2Hey I didn't know that D-Link was made in Taiwan. And I also didn't know that yahoo was founded by someone from taiwan. I dugg you down because I thought you were wrong, but I guess I was wrong too. Sorry for that :(
        • orangysb, on 11/03/2007, -2/+4Yahoo's a US company
          • Kanidia, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1One of the founders is from Taiwan. Not that it makes it a Taiwanese company, but just a note.
      • diulei, on 11/03/2007, -2/+2Yea, but Lenovo used IBM's success to factor into their own. Also, you can't really consider Taiwan part of China (at least yet), not wanting to start a debate but they are basically two different countries... (different government, different currency...)
      • ortucis, on 11/03/2007, -3/+1Ahh Asus, their fault mobo components and high prices.
      • ortucis, on 11/03/2007, -3/+1Ahh Digg, it's comment system which lets you double post.
  • whataboutdave, on 11/05/2007, -1/+5The only major things in China's way are rampant pollution and the instability inherent in having over a billion people. Those are big problems. Still, I don't think China will fall short of predictions like Japan did. That said, people said all the same things about Japan. The point is that nothing is certain and China still has a long way to go even with their amazing growth.
    • pyrotix, on 11/03/2007, -1/+1Instability in having a billion people? Look at America and its monoculture. Russia is having stability problems from DEpopulation. If its population continues to drop, it will lose regions to separatism. Large populations are easy to control, especially for totalitarian governments.
      • whataboutdave, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1There is no middle class in China. That is kind of what I was getting at.
    • ZellD, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1Instability doesn't particularly have to do with population. It is much more about relative population density, the intermixing of regional cultures, politics, and economic spread. All of which China has problems with.
  • wreckosaurus, on 11/05/2007, -7/+45Japan - lots of well educated engineers that are able to make high tech, good quality products at a decent cost
    China - we have over a billion people which we pay pennies a day to work in our factories mass producing cheap crap that breaks the first ***** time you use it, if it doesn't poison you first.
    Answer - no, China sucks and they owe me a new plunger, which I used once on the bathroom sink before it broke
    • Viceice, on 11/03/2007, -9/+9Exactly. And it's not just a matter of education and economy.

      Japanese culture is such that one always strives to improve on ones self, to progress and to go further at all costs. Chinese culture on the other hand is very simple. Get rich at all costs. In fact if it weren't for communism keeping them in check, I dare say the Chinese are far more capitalistic and exploitative than anyone else.

      So yea, as long as it remains in the Chinese psyche that the almighty buck is indeed that, they will never better the Japanese.
      • yifes, on 11/04/2007, -0/+0Actually, the rampant capitalism is characteristic of late 19th century America, where everybody rushed to make a buck at the expense of others. Even today you can say that American puts too much value on wealth. If you look at the American auto industry vs Japan, the Japanese cars tend to be more reliable. But overall, America is the world leader in research and development, not Japan. Culture plays a lot less of a role than you think.
    • brad3378, on 11/03/2007, -4/+1I disagree - the Chinese have nowhere to go but up. Sadly Japan & the USA have already peaked.
  • otakushark, on 11/05/2007, -4/+28Ah, the irony. In the 1950's, America was in an absolute panic over Communist countries. Now damn near every manufactured item you buy comes from one.
    • geekee, on 11/05/2007, -1/+17China is communist in name only now. They are basically your ordinary corrupt dictatorship these days.
      • otakushark, on 11/03/2007, -1/+3I fail to see the difference between the corrupt leadership then and now. It's not like the "people" ever ruled the country.
      • Swanston, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2Agreed, there is no difference to communist government, and a corrupt dictatorship. If you do get a fairy tale 'true' communist government it will turn out to be corrupt anyways. If you digg me down, you haven't read the communist manifesto, or any other books about communism or you would know it (has) always fail[s](ed) miserably.
    • KanchoBukkakeku, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1More like teh rich and powerful in the US were in panic of communism in the US, and thus inducing panic in the public through propaganda.
  • woojoo, on 11/05/2007, -11/+3Here is a mirror
    http://tinyurl.com/yotfy3
  • FluffyWolf, on 11/05/2007, -1/+10No. China is currently similar to Japan of the late 1950's, so they might have another 35 years of economic growth ahead.
    http://tools.google.com/gapminder/#$majorMode=char ...

  • vulcanius, on 11/03/2007, -7/+7Is this a joke?
  • aflaks, on 11/04/2007, -8/+18Japan has high expertise and excellent product quality. China has toaster production and lead paint.

    If you have any knowledge of business or economics, the connection can not be made. If anything, China will either become a powerhouse or crumple under its own weight.
    Japan made very innovative products, China can mass produce ***** ones.
    • ZellD, on 11/04/2007, -0/+7Japan made "*****" products for a long time after World War II which helped them build up. There are other reasons why China won't succeed, that is not one of them. If anything, that IS the major threat of China.
  • SpykerSpeed, on 11/03/2007, -2/+10If you think America's retiring baby boomers are going to put a cramp on our economy, wait till you see what the one-child policy does for China in about... 7 to 12 years. That's going to be a train wreck.
    • Tanktunker, on 11/03/2007, -1/+4Be assured, people in rural areas of china still have 6-9 babies, mainly because they can't survive without farm help.
      • SpykerSpeed, on 11/03/2007, -1/+2Nope, they can't get away with that. The village cadres are responsible for making sure the rule is enforced, and the fines for having more children are exorbitant, especially for the poor.
      • whataboutdave, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1The children they have go off to work in cities anyway...
    • etnu, on 11/05/2007, -1/+1As opposed to the train wreck of having their population double?
    • VCAT, on 11/03/2007, -0/+3yeah nigeria's 20-child-per-family policy is really working out for them. Imagine trying to feed a 3 billion ppl in china in 2050!
  • tehxen3, on 11/04/2007, -3/+5This is stupid, Japan has 120 million people and China has more than 1.2 billion.
  • knicks555, on 11/03/2007, -2/+2damn 22 exactly
  • geekee, on 11/03/2007, -1/+9China is more like Taiwan used to be, a cheap source of labor. As the standard of living there rises, products will become more expensive. Eventually manufacturers find a new cheap labor source somewhere else. At some point the effective wages for everyone around the world will reach equilibrium, but it will take many generations. Of course, corrupt govts. will always throw a wrench in the works, so we'll see if China tries to stiff it's labor and business owners, and skim off the top, like every other dictatorship.
    • ZellD, on 11/03/2007, -1/+2Japan also used to be a source of cheap labor. The difference was the Japanese business elite and government "worked together" or "collaborated", your choice, to make sure the standard of living in Japan remained artificially low. This created a class of skilled workers with low consumption but who still had to work very hard. It is an incredibly powerful economic tool. To this day this day the standard of living is quite low for a country of Japan's wealth.
  • BHRecon, on 11/03/2007, -4/+8China is the next Japan.... coated in lead paint.
  • bjs3171, on 11/04/2007, -7/+15i'm a shoe designer, and all of our shoes are made in Chinese factories. From my experience, I can tell you that China is not going to take over *****. Taking 10 attempts to understand you want a ***** stitch is not confidence inducing The chinese do not think, they follow. And how many "made in china" toys have been recalled this year? like 306? And what are all around most reliable cars on the market today? That's right, Japanese ones. Let me know when the chinese learn to think for themselves, and then I'll believe that in 20 years or so they'll be a force to be reconed with.
    • Leksikon, on 11/03/2007, -0/+4Chinese cars ROCK! Just check out this review on the Brilliance - http://www.autoblog.com/2007/06/22/brilliance-bs6s ...

      I'd love to get one for someone I hate.
    • Kanidia, on 11/03/2007, -4/+1Just because worker class chinese people can't do things to your standard, doesn't mean high class businesspeople can't either.
    • wonttellya, on 11/03/2007, -6/+6Shoe designer. We should value a shoe designer's opinion. We all know how shoe designers are smarter than most of us. If he says Chinese are stupid, who are we to question his judgment.

      The one Chinese who couldn't understand a SHOE DESIGNER, and we all know how smart shoe designers are, that is enough to prove ALL Chinese are not smart.

      Shoe designers. The US is lost without the like of shoe designers, shoe salesmen, tollbooth operators, etc...
    • kinerry, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1Chery Automobile

      Look it up
    • yifes, on 11/04/2007, -0/+0If the only chinese people I interact with are unskilled shoe workers and factory owners, I'd think the same way as you.
  • skews13, on 11/04/2007, -5/+2i hope so.do you know how much money there will be to speculate on,in their market economy.instead of them speculating on ours.ther's a new way to make money in this country,boys and girls.you are witnessing a major global shift in world economics.this is not something to be frightened of.the opportunities just change.they don't go away.
  • jpkeisala, on 11/03/2007, -0/+4Well what we westerns should worry about is revolution in China, image if someone would let those billion people out of communism.
    • Gavagai80, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1Indeed. I make regular sizeable donations to the communist party's citizen pacification fund to do my part to save us from that possible horror.
  • BlackAle, on 11/04/2007, -4/+8Actually, the question should be, is China the next US?
    • Urusai, on 11/04/2007, -4/+3No.
      • BlackAle, on 11/03/2007, -3/+3Indeed, China will do better.
        • budda44, on 11/03/2007, -1/+2Seriously? Take a look at the GDP per capita numbers for China and the US. The US would have to endure many many years of negative economic growth coupled with even more massive economic growth from China for them to even begin to narrow the gap. The problem with this is that the two cannot occur at the same time over the long term. China is very dependant on the US consumer and our cash. If that is taken away then they will have great difficulty growing. A strong China depends on a strong United States. Their own people cannot drive their economy to a level of the US.
        • whitesaint, on 11/03/2007, -1/+3Actually, the answer is, China is the next Soviet Union.
      • kirab, on 11/03/2007, -1/+2Glad that's resolved.
    • winsomecowboy, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1That's a very astute observation.
  • FunkyWitDaSysTm, on 11/04/2007, -5/+3/digg down
  • madcat033, on 11/04/2007, -2/+20You should all look into the solow swan model (also called exogenous growth model) of output and capital per unit of effective labor. Essentially, countries with less capital per labor experience much faster short term growth than countries with more capital per unit of labor. These countries accumulate capital while they experience this rapid growth in output. In the long run however, their growth rate will slow down and they will reach the equilibrium amount of capital per unit of effective labor.

    We saw this with the soviets during the middle of the cold war. Everyone in the USA was panicking because the USSR was experience much more rapid growth than the USA. Everyone was afraid that the Soviet Union was going to blow by the USA economically. People were worried that it was proof socialism was better, et cetera. However, this was only because the USSR had very little capital and they were in the middle of industrializing. Solow explained his model to JFK (I think that's what happened) and calmed their fears. Essentially, their growth was faster than ours because we were already at an equilibrium amount of capital / effective labor. Solow's predictions came true... the Soviet Union's growth eventually slowed down significantly and they never passed us economically.

    China is in the same situation. Tons of people, VERY little capital. Of COURSE they are going to experience rapid growth right now! They are industrializing. As they accumulate capital, their GDP is going to grow a LOT faster than ours. All those 1 billion Chinese will be a LOT more productive once they get more industrialized. We aren't growing as fast because we are already at the optimal level... we're fully industrialized.
    • wonttellya, on 11/04/2007, -7/+1Go read Greenspan's "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World" or take Econ 101 before you open your month. You're just making up facts about USSR and compare it to China.
    • SpykerSpeed, on 11/03/2007, -0/+3Great point, madcat. China is a good investment now because it requires smaller doses of investment capital for big percentage returns. But India may be even better, if you're just analyzing an economy based on this metric.
    • whataboutdave, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1An economist on Digg? In a million years I never thought I would hear someone reference the Solow growth path on Digg. You're dead on, by the way.
  • MoltenBoron, on 11/04/2007, -1/+9mirror:

    Is China the Next Japan?
    Posted November 2nd, 2007 by Josh

    For years economists have wondered whether the inevitable rising power of China was similar to Japan in the 1980s. If you remember (and that requires you to be over 22), people used to think that Japan was an unstoppable beast destined to take over the world. Movies and popular media frequently made reference to this, of in now-comical ways.

    Among some of the most notable examples of this frenzy were Gung Ho (Ron Howard’s film), the scene in Back to the Future II when old Marty is talking to his Japanese bosses, and the hilariously out of date Rising Sun, which was a Michael Crichton book, turned into a movie only after Japan’s downfall had already become clear. The popular theory was that Japanese people were more dedicated to their work, and willing to put in longer hours than people in the West. This gap in work ethic meant that Japan was an unstoppable force in the global economy, and that we would all soon be working as mannies in Tokyo.

    As it turned out, Japan was able to maintain its place as a superpower economically, but it is hardly hegemonic the way that people expected. People in the West were not quite as lazy as we thought (shout out to the French 35-hour work week. Way to continue to promote the theory!) Japan does not own the US or Europe. On the contrary, they are still digging themselves out of a decade-long recession that actually saw deflation, something rarely seen since the Great Depression.

    Experts will generally tell you that China is a completely different situation. The common argument is that the sheer population size of the country makes it an inevitable economic power. However, it seems like this point, in isolation, falls flat, otherwise China surely would have become an economic titan years ago.

    The second point is that the driving force is not only population. Rather the (relatively) newly open economy has helped shed the chains of communism that previously held the country back. In combination, these two factors are propelling China ahead of the pack.

    Yet for all of the rhetoric that China is the heir apparent to economic hegemony, there has been no shortage of reporting on the problems with its current policies. Most notably poor safety regulation, IP piracy (which hinders innovation), and the developing environmental disaster, all serve to set back the recent economic push. These factors should be tamping down on what some might label irrational exuberance.

    Perhaps even more compelling is lack of underlying logic to why China will dominate the global economy (whereas there was a case with Japan, even thought the theory proved flawed). While there are Chinese entrepreneurs who have shown a knack for innovation and even brilliance, the greater work force shows more remnants of communistic tendencies than signs of a dynamic work ethic.

    China backers will make the case that Japan’s unprecedented rise was based largely on an illusion, namely the absurdly inflated property prices that created vast amounts of paper money and spurred poor investment decisions. When this bubble burst it brought reality to the markets, and made Japan’s place as a strong, but not dominant economic player, all the more apparent.

    It should be pointed out that China also shows signs of major flaws in its economy. Many have argued that there is a property bubble, although not on the scale of Japan in the 1980s. It has rampant corruption, fueling both the property problem as well as the massive amounts of NPLs (non-performing loans) that continue to raise red flags in the banking industry. And finally China’s economic system is not developed enough to reign in economic growth to curb inflation. Interest rates are essentially irrelevant when loans are not made on economic criteria.

    None of this is to say that China will not become a major player in the world economy. Clearly it already has and there is no reason to believe that even a precipitous collapse, something that seems unlikely, would be so devastating the country could not recover. South Korea, for example, is in a strong position only ten years after an unmitigated disaster.

    The question is not about whether China will be a power, it is about if the country will become an economic hegemon.
  • damnyooneek, on 11/03/2007, -0/+6until they figure out how to be innovative and not just copy products they won't go anywhere
    • amicor, on 11/03/2007, -3/+1Japan started the same way.
      • potp, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2Trust. i do business with the Chinese and they know ***** about product development and even less about marketing. if that doesn't change then they will just be an outsourcing hub where people like me make 80% of the profit and those saps will be stuck with only 20%. No doubt they are hard workers but hard work counts for ***** these days. you need to do more smart work. I doubt China could
    • diulei, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1And South Korea, and look how succesful both have become.
  • crestfall, on 11/04/2007, -3/+3yellow - the new red.

    Sorry... Digg time is over today.
  • passedoutghost, on 11/04/2007, -2/+2Japan has actually plateaued. It's economy isn't as strong as it was during the post war boom years and since the 1973 oil crisis there have been small improvements, for the most part its citizens are more focused on saving rather than acting like a consumer society by spending. Japan was previously supported by the US to help their economy along to prevent Communism from spreading (a clumsy explanation on my part, but that was what really happened). Also when Japan's wealth began to increase it drew more global criticism. Another reason for Japan's relative success was that it did not spend a large amount on defence spending, relying on the US to provide for that sector. Thus they could develop high tech consumer products, and quite successfully by establishing off shore production factories and focusing on the services sector.

    China on the other hand is a delayed consumer society. It's relatively recent entry into the WTO in 2001 and thus into the global economy have marked an increase in economy profit. Indeed as madcat had said before me China's GDP is increasing exponentially at the moment (although what the future holds we don't know). A few years ago I think their GDP had increased by 10% which is a large amount by any standards. Also China is quickly outstripping Japan as the main trade partner in Australia and other countries.

    But the two are completely distinct countries. Japan's economy is a Western style economy, but has a symbiotic relationship with the government compared to the American economy which is completely autonomous from the government. China's economy on the other hand is 'Capitalism with Chinese aspects' (an actual quote, but I can't remember the author)
    • whitesaint, on 11/04/2007, -1/+3It's easier to grow when you start from zero. Japan makes far superior products. Wal-Mart makes half-grade cheap products on a mass scale, and they aren't very well known to have the top tiered products around. Japan is miles ahead of anything China will ever be. Sure, China is a great economic power, but look at the standard of living the majority of the population lives in.
      • potp, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1You dont even want to know thee living condition of many of the daily workers. some just get 20$ a month and watered down soup for breakfast and Dinner (forget about Launch). Standard of living for most in china is seriously bad.
  • rz8472, on 11/04/2007, -4/+9I lived in China for 3 years and go back and visit every 5 years or so. And I can tell you that every time I visit, the cities look NOTHING like they did 5 years ago. The infrastructure of China is going up at an extremely rapid pace, and that infrastructure will translate to continued and steady growth over the next decade at least. For example, in my home city of Nanjing, they just started tearing apart the city center to make way for a subway, and in Beijing they're going to have the world's largest airport (to supplement the 5- or so they already have) to handle increased volumes. In short, China is beginning to rival the US more and more in terms of infrastructure (perhaps even greater in some of the coastal areas). However, the inland is still relatively undeveloped, but I expect that to change as more and more Han settlers begin to displace the ethnically Uighur and Tibetan indigenous peoples.

    As for the United States - as someone living in the Bay Area, there has not been a major public works project since the 1970s in our area (although the Bay Bridge is set to be replaced, but the project is going slower than expected and has been scaled back). The Nimitz Freeway is a horrible place to drive, yet I dont see any plans to expand it. Basically, the United States seems to be in a quagmire where most money for public works goes towards MAINTAINING our ever-aging infrastructure rather than building up new infrastructure. That, and the fact that we're under record deficits and owe China billions of dollars (+ interest) indicates that the United States will undergo a phase of contraction relatively soon.

    I think the best analogy to make is that China today is like the rapidly-expanding Japan of the 1970s, and the United States is like slowly-dying Japan in the late 1980s.

    US foreign policy is hoping that India will help offset China's growing power. This may be true eventually, but India simply lacks the infrastructure right now to compete economically. This is one of the sad disadvantages of democracy (not that it isn't a great system) - infrastructure simply isnt a 'sexy' issue. Case in point - Italy under Mussolini and Germany under Hitler had freeways in the 20s and 30s. The UK started building its highway system in the 50s.
    • Comatose51, on 11/04/2007, -3/+7On top of that, the leadership of China are mostly engineers who graduated from Tsinghua (China's MIT) and other top technical universities. They've made science a governmental policy. We have a president who can't speak his native language correctly and supports teaching Creationism in school. China doesn't have to be the next Japan to beat us. We'll do that ourselves.
    • WikiEasy, on 11/04/2007, -1/+1That's the problem with people who judge based on what's on the surface. What you are not seeing is the corruption, lack of innovation, lack of legal protection, healthcare, education, standard of living, etc.

      It's very easy to see the new skyscrapers and go "wow this place looks better than XXX in my country." But remember, just because you bought a new car, doesn't mean your neighbor, who owns an older car, is poorer than you.
    • kreneskyp, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1"just because you bought a new car, doesn't mean your neighbor, who owns an older car, is poorer than you."

      correct. but in this case there is no money to fix or replace the older car when it breaks. We've even known it needed fixing or replacement for a very long time. In our case our aging infrastructure is a very good indicator that something is going to go terribly wrong.

      We won't have any major public works projects for a very long time because we have built up too much debt from the iraq war. It will already take decades to pay off what we owe. If we borrow much more we will be stuck in a state of perpetual debt because we can't even pay the interest on the loans.

      This is exacerbated by the dropping value of the dollar. Think of it as a massive sub-prime mortgage default. We borrowed trillions based on the dollar being strong just like people overextend themselves with adjustable rate home loans. Now that rates are changing the US can't pay its debt.
  • mr5150, on 11/04/2007, -11/+6Unlike Japan, China makes crap products that break in record time. China has no form of self respect for manufacturing like Japan has always had. Comparing Japanese technology/industry to China's is silly. China is nothing more than a whore for anyone with a buck to exploit.

    I try and find what I need without it having any affiliation to China. It's getting incredibly hard to do which make me even more resolute to avoiding any company that does business with such a shoddy ***** up corrupt and contemptuous nation like China.
    • AeroZeppelin, on 11/04/2007, -1/+9Thank you for generalizing an entire nation based on your observations on some of the companies out of the countless thousands. Next time make a post when you actually know what the ***** you're talking about.
      • vitasoy, on 11/03/2007, -0/+0qft
      • mr5150, on 11/04/2007, -5/+1***** you and the camel you rode in on, you presumptious *****! Any company that outsources to China is a whore and doesn't deserve my dollar. As for chinese quality, well there is none. All product made in China without western overight are ***** and those that are overseen are miriginally acceptable. Pretending to be a politically correct prick serves no purpose in this instance as I have not defamed the people of China just their business mindset and government.

        So ***** you again...ignorant troll.
  • circular, on 11/03/2007, -3/+0Those who judge others have no idea who they themselves really are. They've been groomed to finger-point because that is how their masters manipulate them, ensuring that they are proficient enough to produce but dumb enough not to see their own reality. The minute big heads start thinking for themselves, their masters will use the tricks of the trade to rope them back in and that is though raising the national flag, playing the national anthem, indulge them with their favourite banana, gadgets, "wet-holes", entertainment, druggist & chemist parties and before you know it, eets election time and they are being freed [sic] to choose a new leader and when that is not enough, rachet-up the finger-pointing through demonising, and, "hell buoy, it's time we show them who's the boss, eh, let go to war !! ... yee-ha .." Recognise the MO/genetic markers, guys & gals, or are you filling yore belly with more popcorn, hambugers & porn. Let no idiot or lunatic think that tradition, the thing that shallow "new world conquerors" lack, is meaningless and the destruction of others moral tradition is the most damaging thing that the empty-heads have done to others. The war on greed & fear. Just look at those who won't relinquish their plundering of others resources, euphemised as "Exchanges" & "Aid". Every idiotic & lunatic "complaint" here is about the possibility of others defending their own turf. Which country, dear boys and gals, do you know at this point in time, is always eyeing others resources/wealth? You jest ... you actually can think for yourself. Pigs may fly .....
  • LucyLucyLucy, on 11/03/2007, -4/+4I love that people keep voting for this page even though Digg crashed the site. Basically you're a bunch of sheep who blindly vote for stuff
  • LucyLucyLucy, on 11/03/2007, -5/+2I love that people keep voting for this page even though Digg crashed the site. Basically you're a bunch of sheep who blindly vote for stuff
  • yellowsnowcone, on 11/03/2007, -2/+6Chicks in Japan are more adventurous, open-minded and generally sexier. The women in China are basically looking to marry early (preferrably a rich dude) and haven't learned to shave their arm pit hair.
  • BluesFan, on 11/03/2007, -1/+4I was watching a report on this and they said India would likely pass China economically and will pass China in population because China has the one baby policy....India doesn't.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3v1tpJQQq-c
    • passedoutghost, on 11/03/2007, -2/+0Do you actually think the Chinese follow the one child policy? Wait...by your reasoning I wouldn't have a little sister.
      • SpykerSpeed, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2How much money did your parents pay to be able to have her?
    • BluesFan, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2It's not my reasoning at all it's the reports and apparently the Chinese law. Go tell the Chinese authorities that you have a little sister and see what they do....that is if you do live in China.
    • yifes, on 11/04/2007, -1/+0Isn't that video you posted made by indians? What do you think they're going to say? That India is going to fail?
  • s4z3n, on 11/04/2007, -1/+3China is also one of the poorest nations with most of their population living below the poverty line. Even one of their rich people said that the money is distributed like a bench press bar with a lot of weight on each side and a short thin bar with both weights represent the poor middle and upper class.
    • yifes, on 11/04/2007, -0/+1Accroding to the world bank, 8% of Chinese live below the poverty line....
      You are like 20 years out of date...
  • BluesFan, on 11/03/2007, -0/+3It's not my reasoning at all it's the reports and apparently the Chinese law. Go tell the Chinese authorities that you have a little sister and see what they do....that is if you do live in China.
  • BluesFan, on 11/04/2007, -1/+3Sorry ignore that last post it was suppose to go under reply.

    btw Will China have any land left in the next 10-20 years? I've read that the pollution is so bad that some rivers are irreversibly damaged.
    • vitasoy, on 11/03/2007, -4/+0no u
    • realstraw, on 11/03/2007, -0/+0It's true, but i think they try to reduce the pollution and some of the rivers were "rebuild" and it's getting clean not, although i don't know how
  • tauran, on 11/04/2007, -1/+3I came across this interesting article on wikipedia looking at the past GDP numbers of countries. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_pa ... Seems like China has always been in or around the top in producing good and services which subsequently has a trickle down effect in terms of the standard of living. Minus the last 150 years with the political and economic turmoil, it seems inevitable that China is gonna be more than the next Japan. Quality and innovation is trial and error, eventually Chinese goods are going to be of better quality.
  • ViggosMagick, on 11/04/2007, -3/+0Is Canada the next United States?
    • BluesFan, on 11/03/2007, -0/+3No I think the Canadian dollar will fall back to about $.85 to the american dollar once theU.S gets rid of Bush and gets out of Iraq.
      • Mellowman999, on 11/03/2007, -0/+0Cause those are our only two problems.
  • mrjit, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2Thanks for making me (at 23) feel old.
  • Sirsri, on 11/04/2007, -1/+3in a largely free intellectual market system it's very difficult for any country to usurp the top so to speak. Japanese efficiency can be bought by US money and then the US has Japanese efficiency so to speak. China on the other hand, can grow to even half per capita the power of the US and japan and still be twice as powerful as the US.

    It is of course a different way of counting power, but China by virtue of having 1.4 billion people and a relatively open market for industrialization and innovation will rapidly assume the top stop in the world, with the US and india jockying over 2nd and 3rd place. India has the population, but the US has much more robust and enforced anti corruption law and a more economically viable culture, I doubt that india will pass 1/3 of US per capita GDP any time soon merely because of bad labour laws and persistent corruption.
  • DerangedPenguin, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2what about Freedom, Japan while constrained by tradition, has freedom. Something that is lacking in Communist China and ultimately will limit growth, nothing like a big government, to crush innovation.
  • zanzzz, on 11/04/2007, -0/+7There is one catcher in the rye for China that no one has mentioned yet. The ecological catastrophe that is unfolding combined with an insatiable and escalating appetite for resources. A few months ago there was a Discover series on China that mentioned some frightening statistics. One claims was that the entire GDP of China would be needed to rectify all its ecological problems. The second was that at current rates China alone would need a planet and a half of resources alone for its needs in 20 years. Obviously these trends are not sustainable. If you read in depth the scope and extent of the problems that are multiplying daily it is hard not to be overwhelmed by it all. A coal plant every 5 days, thousands of new cars added daily to clogged and polluted cities, most rivers polluted severely, declining agriculture from smog and water pollution, epidemic cancers and lung problems in industrial areas, rapidly increasing desertification, drought, and aquifer contamination. These sacrifices were accepted as the price for jobs and modernity. Still there are enormous numbers of poor and unemployed that increasingly empty the countryside and pack into cities in teeming numbers with no end in sight. China is riding the tiger and the risks of failure are a worldwide conflagration.
  • gravylookout, on 11/03/2007, -1/+1Duh?
  • kashem, on 11/03/2007, -0/+1China will not go anywhere until they fix their problem with overpopulation, period. For the sake of the athletes, I hope China does everything they can to clean up the air.
    • Mellowman999, on 11/03/2007, -0/+0Lets ignore the fact that america didn't sign the kyoto protocal either. It's unimporntant.
  • jamessavik, on 11/04/2007, -1/+3In reality, China is probably more like the Japan of the 1930s: huge industrial capacity and manpower, large military, serious need for energy and raw materials but not economically strong enough to dominate the competetion for those resources.

    When (not if) China launches their SE Asian blitzkreig, no one in the region can handle them on the ground.
  • archimago42, on 11/03/2007, -0/+2That's funny because Japan was a monster trying to take over the entire world just a few years before that.
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