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- HAL90000, on 04/13/2009, -2/+24If you think what he says seems far-fetched, then consider this. In 1970 if a person said, "around 2000, most men and women in the country will have personal computing devices capable of simulating other worlds. All of these computers will be interconnected and capable of talking to any other personal computing device on the planet. Less then ten years after this, handheld devices capable of the same thing will be available, and will be commonplace." they'd be considered way too optimistic and slightly crazy.
So don't dismiss Kurzweil offhand, because he might be closer than you think. Think about how much the country changed in a mere 30 years. It's not really that implausible when you think about it. Especially when you consider that the rate of change will be even greater than it was from 1970-2000. - popzero, on 04/12/2009, -5/+26I wish Kurzwiel's future would get here faster. I could use a good technological singularity right about now.
- darkism, on 04/12/2009, -0/+13Foglets assemble the object atom by atom.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utility_fog
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_nanotechnol ... - Zervaman, on 04/13/2009, -1/+12You hit the nail right on the head. People can't really get over the fact that technological progress is going to increase at an exponential, not linear, rate.
All I can say is, I can't wait. The future is going to be crazy. - japface, on 04/13/2009, -2/+12oh man, ***** transportation for a minute, just think of how AWESOME PORN WILL BE. cannot emphasize that enough.
- psients, on 04/13/2009, -0/+9Kurzweil made a number of predictions for 2009 back in 1999 (and earlier) that so far have not panned out and do not look they will any time in the near future.
http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=/ar ...
Perhaps most ridiculously, he predicted that there would be real time automatic voice translation services working and actively in use on the market through the international phone system. He also predicted that computer interfaces would be primarily voice activated and controlled, something that people like Bill Gates have been predicting are just around the corner for more than a decade.
Many other things sound a bit weird. Of course portable computing is big, but is it commonly integrated into our clothing? Into jewelry, like earrings and rings? No way. Why would it be?
I agree with the wider trans-humanist premise, that our evolution will be primarily driven by technology and self-direction, and that RK makes valid points, but many of his predictions really have to be discarded, if only because they will not be of marketable quality. Virtual reality nanobots in the next 20 years? Yeah, that's one. - dolanman, on 04/12/2009, -2/+10This article reminds me of Jacque Fresco and The Venus Project. It's difficult to acknowledge all of the material as realistic, but it's still some great food for thought.
http://www.thevenusproject.com - mark076h, on 04/13/2009, -1/+9The Singularity is Near!
- pixeldust, on 04/13/2009, -0/+7Awesome until you accidently beam some tranny porn straight into your brain.
- wgasa, on 04/13/2009, -1/+8Ray Rocks!
- generalalcazar, on 04/13/2009, -0/+7Hey, how's it going?
Whoops. Did we just meet... in cyberspace? - ProfessorSYM, on 04/13/2009, -0/+6So many obstacles, we should just give up!
- inactive, on 04/13/2009, -0/+6Beam 3D stuff huh... heh... I'd love to see what the porn industry can make use of that!
- ganymede2010, on 04/13/2009, -1/+7Hey, I was digged down the other day for making a comment similar to Kurzweil's postulation.
"By 2050 most people in first world countries will spend a majority of their time fully immersed in virtual environments, in the comforts of their own home. We'll be a less mobile society due to the advances in automation and information technology"
http://digg.com/general_sciences/2050_What_Will_th ... - HastyBoom, on 04/13/2009, -0/+5Not me. Bring it on!
- jec68, on 04/13/2009, -1/+5http://www.transcendentman.com/
- YawehsDead, on 04/13/2009, -0/+4I couldn't agree more.
- inactive, on 04/13/2009, -0/+4I haven't seen another human being in 2 weeks! In 5 more days my stock pile of hot pockets will run out and I will unfortunately have to go outside to get more.
- futuretense, on 04/13/2009, -0/+4VR is just like the real world with a different setting. They are both mediums where conscious beings are interacting with each other. The main difference right now is the resolution of the setting. This seems like a computational issue that can be addressed sooner rather than later if we maintain the pace of moore's law. I would imagine that VR has the potential to be infinitely more enriching than what we now call the real world. It's like discovering a new medium of existence similar to sea creatures evolving to land. VR could be a medium purely of the mind. Perhaps the ultimate freedom.
- japface, on 04/13/2009, -0/+4i just think of the awesomeness that is Deus Ex and JC Denton.
- bromanct, on 04/13/2009, -0/+3I remember Asimov's robot novels touching on this. Cool to see it described in non-vague terms..
- hypocriticizer, on 04/13/2009, -0/+3"The future of transportation may mean not moving at all," reminds me of Wall-E.
- juniorb, on 04/13/2009, -1/+4I'm not interested in having nanobots recreate a virtual Paris for me. The temptation to tweak – to "improve" it – it would be too great. You'd end up with a virtual Epcot Center. We remaster music, we remaster movies, so why not remaster reality? That sounds like a nightmare to me, not the glorious future Kurzweil would have us anticipate.
Reality is so special because it doesn't conform to one set of criteria. It is an amorphous entity, an infinitely-faceted diamond that each one of us perceives differently. I'll take reality over a simulation any day. - DavidTurnbull, on 04/13/2009, -0/+3So much nano.
- linagee, on 04/13/2009, -0/+3I just built a singularity in my garage but the whole thing imploded!
- blast_flame, on 04/13/2009, -0/+3Don't worry, we won't assimilate you...
- ganymede2010, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2"By the late 2020s, nanobots in our brain will create full-immersion virtual-reality environments from within the nervous system. That will replace most travel"
I'm definitely taking the Red Pill:) - thenewguru, on 04/13/2009, -1/+3no.
virtual travel is bad because it was implemented in an Arnold Schwarzenegger movie. Total Recall.
it just ends bad. and 3 boobed. - Bainemo, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2"By the late 2020s, nanobots in our brain (that will get there noninvasively, through the capillaries) will create full-immersion virtual-reality environments from within the nervous system."
A little late for an April Fool's joke isn't it - TheMoniker, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2I think that's a rather narrow view of what these "simulations" will be. For one, it ignores the fact that, for all the remastering of media that we do, we also use our new technology for original creative endeavours. Moreover, technology has opened up access to production of studio-quality movies and music to the independent artist, which, if anything, has reduced the homogeneity and created a greater variety within these arts.
Second, there are aspects of reality that really are quite worth "remastering" and editing, among them are the human lifespan and—in terms of editing out—cancer, birth defects, age-related illnesses, etc. - linagee, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2I refuse to put nanobots in my brain. How would you know the trip is over? Maybe the nanobots would decide its in your best interest to never let you out.
- omniwired, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2In Ghost in the Shell (Anime - TV Series) that exactly what happen.
- slicecom, on 04/13/2009, -1/+3It's near.
- TheMoniker, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2@sat0shi: You might be thinking of the RepRap rapid prototyping machine. It at present can only make the plastic parts for itself
@kja5: I'm not sure exactly what you have in mind when you address 3-d printers. First, they are quite limited right now, granted. Second, you can get yourself a rather nice one for around $30,000 dollars and the price performance is increasing in terms of resolution. They are also a fair bit smaller than a room—closer to the size of a fridge.
Also, I have no idea what Kurzweil is talking about regarding nano-wings. - sat0shi, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2There are already devices that can print out 3D objects. In fact, you can build it yourself, and it is close to being able to replicate itself. I forget the name of it, but I'm sure somebody on here knows.
- y0ssar1an, on 04/13/2009, -2/+4This guy is a massive tool.
PZ Meyers dropped the hammer on him a while back.
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singula ... - dirtbikedude, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2Hate to say it but he says by 2020...this may occur but it will be FAR past 2020. I believe back in the early 1900's they said we'd have this stuff by year 2000. Technology moves quickly, but not THAT quickly.
- inactive, on 04/13/2009, -0/+2I guess that all depends on what you are into... ;)
- inactive, on 04/13/2009, -1/+3"around 2000, most men and women in the country will have personal computing devices capable of simulating other worlds. All of these computers will be interconnected and capable of talking to any other personal computing device on the planet."
World of Warcraft is over-rated. - TheMoniker, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1Well, it will be optional. I for one am looking forward to better health, radical life extension, etc. But for those who want to opt out, that will definitely be an option.
- TheMoniker, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1Hear, hear. Also, considering other technology that may be available and the impinging of VR on reality (e.g. foglets, etc.) I think it has the potential to be taken to a greater extreme even yet.
- TheMoniker, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1Given the increase in the price performance of various types of technology and their possible applications, there is some real good to be done in these areas of the world in the near future. Indeed, there is some real good being done there now.
http://projecthdesign.com/2008/04/15/fund-this-pro ...
http://laptop.org/en/ - MattBD, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1Three-dimensional printers already exist. So far they're not up to much more than creating solid lumps of plastic or resin, but it's a start. And there are even techniques that have been used to print artificially-created blood vessels. The technology is still in its infancy, but it's there and it's growing fast.
For more information, check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing. - TheMoniker, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1You and I both.
- linagee, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1I blame walmart.
- andrewwl, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1Get your ass to Mars!
- nj10ii, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1The future IS crazy my friend.
- MattBD, on 04/13/2009, -0/+1Sometimes things don't pan out the way people predict, but that's inevitable. We do have pretty advanced portable computers in another way though. My iPod Touch is a pretty powerful portable computer that can surf the net, read email, play music and so on.
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