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87 Comments
- RockSlice, on 05/14/2009, -0/+24Unfortunately for them, as you can very easily tell from the chart at http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/ , housing prices are only returning to where they should be from their bubble.
So they can't really expect the prices to "recover" back to anywhere near where they were before. - Smokeydabear, on 05/14/2009, -2/+17Yeah but I work in the newspaper industry...
- Bloodwine, on 05/14/2009, -0/+15The house prices are recovering ... recovering downward to corrected and sane prices.
- Smokeydabear, on 05/14/2009, -1/+14I'm three years out of college and have a job where I could buy a house if I wanted, but the fact is I'm afraid the moment I sign the papers something will happen.
- DirtyVicar, on 05/14/2009, -0/+12And the more homeowners turn to renting, the greater the rental supply rises and rental prices sink. Unless of course it's SF, where even in the next Great Depression it will still cost $3000/month to rent a broom closet.
- deddiode, on 05/14/2009, -0/+10Unfortunately foreclosure just makes fiscal sense for a lot of people right now. I have seen many of my otherwise responsible neighbors willingly go into foreclosure on their first home after buying a second (bigger and cheaper) house.
I decided to not contribute to the problem, but I am in the minority it seems... - billricardi, on 05/14/2009, -0/+10Oh dear god, no. This is Flat Earthing for Home Owners. FTA:
"The rent I'm charging doesn't cover all my expenses," says Saret. "I recognize I may need to eventually take a loss, but I'm not sure how big of a loss is too big."
EVENTUALLY take a loss? If what you're charging doesn't cover expenses, AND you've moved in with your brother and are paying some expenses there as well... you're ALREADY taking losses! This stall tactic is going to utterly destroy your finances, lady.
Your primary home is not an investment. Your primary home is a necessary evil, its a mitigated loss as compared to the unmitigated loss of renting. If you find yourself over your head with your primary residence, sell it. Sell it now while loans are dirt cheap and you have a maximized market! Get your ass out of trouble, take your lumps, and start over with a SOUND plan of savings over the next few years. If you're lucky, interest rates will still be fairly low. If you aren't lucky, well, lesson learned. - wiggles, on 05/14/2009, -4/+13You're in the best position you could possibly be in right now to buy. Interest rates are the lowest they've been in years, and it looks like the housing market finally may be hitting bottom. If I were you, I'd get out there and buy something before the prices shoot up again.
- jerrycan, on 05/14/2009, -1/+9Keep renting. It will get worse before it gets better...
- zjbird, on 05/14/2009, -1/+8This article is a little late
- TsuruchiBrian, on 05/14/2009, -0/+6Home prices are recovering? I thought there was a bubble. For house prices to "recover", we would need another bubble.
- toastgodsupreme, on 05/14/2009, -1/+7Ok, hopefully someone can explain the logic of this to me...
Economy sucks. Housing market gets hit hard. People can't sell because fewer are buying. People can't afford the home they have because of the bad economy/lost job/etc. Eventually they fail to make payments, bank forecloses, kicks them out. House is now vacant, not making money. Vacant houses risk being vandalized, stripped, or neglected. Any house that is vandalized, stripped, or neglected has a good chance of driving down prices of homes in that neighborhood. Etc, etc, etc.
So now why doesn't the bank work out some deal with the homeowner where the homeowner doesn't get kicked out, the house gets maintained by the homeowner, and the bank still has a chance to make money off them until they can find a buyer for the house? - inactive, on 05/14/2009, -0/+6because banks are *****.
- Coffeedemon, on 05/14/2009, -0/+5If they had that much foresight we probably wouldn't be lending them billions of dollars right now.
- Wargala, on 05/14/2009, -1/+6Why? Homeownership is a privilege, not a right. If you want to rent, great. If you want to buy, then there's pros and cons to that.
The world doesn't owe you anything, including homeownership. - RockSlice, on 05/14/2009, -0/+5For those people that don't like the url I provided, you're free to download the .xls from his source: http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en ... and generate your own graph from the raw data.
- ModernDayDarwin, on 05/14/2009, -0/+5You are smart. When in doubt, a conservative approach won't fail you. In the worst case you may miss some interest rates, but when you do decide to do something something you will be cemented in have less likelihood of problems. Especially since you acknowledge being in a volatile industry.
I am in the same position as you. I just keep socking away the money into a savings account and today I watched as my debt to savings ratio reached 0:0. I owe money on my car, but could pay it off 100% at any given moment. Now I just watch as my savings goes up even more. When I find I'm finally settled and have faith in the economy again, I have a fat downpayment. I'm conservative,but when I was laid off I wasn't losing sleep at night. I get the toys I want because I pay cash for them and think twice. I know a lot of people say "you're losing money", but I say "I'm living a happy good life, who cares if I own a house?" - pegothejerk, on 05/14/2009, -1/+5Thank god. I had to move back to Oklahoma because I couldn't convince myself to continue paying 1200 bucks a month for 800 sq ft.
also: mysite.verizon? With a URL like that I expect another graph showing how awesome user vzeqrguz is based on proximity to a light saber shaped object. - Smokeydabear, on 05/14/2009, -0/+4I guess I should have been more specific; I am afraid I'll get a house payment, then lose my job. I am in the newspaper business, but still people in other industries are losing their jobs all over the place.
- smashblu, on 05/14/2009, -1/+5I'm not sure but I think he meant he was afraid something will happen to his job.
If you meant something will happen with the house, I don't know what could happen. If the price goes down it doesn't matter because you're not trying to flip it and make a quick buck. If the price goes up, good. - RumpleForeskin3, on 05/14/2009, -0/+4I'm in the same position but with a stable job actually in real estate. I could buy right now but I don't want to risk the prices falling any further. Besides, the perks are only getting better to buy a house. Might as well wait until they are giving them away for free.
- AmazingSteve, on 05/14/2009, -1/+5Good, I'll be sure to buy your fancy house at foreclosure for 1/4 of what it's worth. thanks.
- stonebear, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3Good luck with that. Their ARMs are forcing homeowners to demand peak bubble rent, even as that bubble deflates. Unfortunately 1988 wages cannot pay bubble rents any more than they can pay bubble mortgages. Home owners are desperately trying to buy time even though time has run out. The credit/real estate bubble was the last gasp of a dieing economy; there can never be anything like it in the US again.
- smashblu, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3Good news I think. When I buy a house for dirt cheap, I wont have any problems finding renters to supplement the mortgage. It's been said that the best time to buy a house is when a mortgage is cheaper than renting.
- Wuss, on 05/14/2009, -1/+4I'm in the exact same situation. I purchased a house literally months before the real estate drop in '07. After researching online, and taking in advice from family and friends, eventually I gave in to the old cliche' that home ownership is necessary to achieve any sort of future financial stability. Even if I didn't make money, I was told to still do it because it's the stepping stone to better home investments after my first one. I was told renting is stupid. You're flushing money down the toilet. etc. etc.
Well, here I am 2 years later. I had to move for a job, and couldn't sell my house for an even remotely swallowable price. I purchased it for 274k, and in 10 months, the value dropped 50k. I was literally losing equity faster then I could make it in real time at my job.
Most young first time home owners approach with the "starter home" strategy, where they plan to stay in it for a few years, then cash in on the equity on their next "real" home. This was my plan, but would have known the worst economic slump in recent memory would happen simultaneously.
The apt. I had previously cost me 1200 a month. Calculating the 50k loss, I could have rented for over 3 years, and actually would come out on the other end with more "equity" then owning my current house.
Also, the 50k loss is in cash, because i put a 90k cash down payment on the house which I would directly lose in the event that I actually tried to sell it for current market value.
No, I did not deal with "funny money " loans. I actually have a 30 yr fixed at 5.85, which in early 07, was well below the national average. This is probably the only source of comfort I have through all this.
Now I moved across the country for a job, with a house I can't sell renting for 200 less the my mortgage, and also paying rent on a 2k/ month apt. My hands are tied. There's no way in hell I'm gonna see 50k of my cold hard cash flushed away. Even with my negative carrying costs on the house, it would be cheaper to rent it, and lose money, for the next few decades, then to see 50 grand disappear in a matter of seconds in a sale.
Moral of the story is, don't listen to people. Do your own math, do what's right for you. Home ownership is not the apple-pie American experience it used to be. I for one, wish I had kept renting to this day. Don't feel pressured to make any decisions of this magnitude from anyone. - Coffeedemon, on 05/14/2009, -1/+4Yeah, because everyone can have a house given to them by their parents or save long enough to get a decent downpayment. There are also people who might be in their first real job and only starting the journey towards home ownership. Shocking, I know.
- RumpleForeskin3, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3They're not losing their house with their shirt.
- hmmdar, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3How long do you plan on staying in the local area should be the first questions asked when considering buying a house. Its nice to know you could afford a house, but if you are only planing on staying for 5 or so years there is no point buying. You would just be throwing your money away. Where as renting you don't have to worry, as much, about the upkeep. There are a lot of secondary cost that go into buying/owning a house that most people do not consider.
There is a reason why they say housing is a long term investment, and by long term, many decades not a few years. - _skin_, on 05/14/2009, -2/+5To all the idiots trying to tell Smokeydabear to buy now... HE IS AFRAID TO LOOSE HIS JOB! (FBTL = From Between the Lines)
- smashblu, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3In that case, don't buy a house until you have an emergency fund saved up. This would allow you to pay all your expenses (including mortgage) for at least six months while you find another job.
- theutopian, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3I'm young and I have no business owning a house until the wife and I settle down in one place for long enough. We need to stay mobile so that we can go wherever we need to go for employment, especially in this economy.
Renting provides that flexibility. I don't see renting as 'throwing money away' That's just propaganda from the Church of Real Estate. It's not throwing away money. You know why? Because I'm paying for shelter, which every human needs. And I rent a great house, cheap with a great landlord. - roodammy44, on 05/14/2009, -0/+3First of all - The housing market has not reached bottom. There's about another 20% to go.
Second of all - Interest rates are very low now, in 1-2 years they will be *very* high. Make sure you can make the payments even if the rates go above 10%.
Third - Newspaper industry isn't the safest of jobs to be in. - UselessTrivia, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2There are stable jobs in real estate?
If the real estate market is so stable, why are you afraid to buy a house? - lazyhaze, on 05/14/2009, -1/+3Not if you bought 4 years ago today in most markets. If you had, you are most likely upside-down and have lost most, if not all of your cash down payment. That cash down payment could have made money in bonds, etc.
- AmazingSteve, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2I could watch you fail all day long. Care to highlight where laughter came into it at all? And it's not boasting, that's the way the world works scooter. You need help there angry guy. Try get over yourself and put your ***** helmet back on before you hurt yourself.
- inactive, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2Grow-op?
- Jade10145, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2That's why I am looking for houses right now. It is kind of sad though knowing that I am capitalizing on people's financial woes.
I will say that buying a house is a scary thing though, knowing you are about to owe a ***** load of money on something. I try to look at it as an investment. - AmazingSteve, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2Wow, that was mature. Nice issues. Get help.
- _skin_, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2People really are ignorant... Its called a short sale. Banks are doing it right now.
- TsuruchiBrian, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2What banks should have done was to never lend money to people who were bad credit risks in the first place. Unfortunately there were laws put in place to give banks incentives to give loans to low income people who would have otherwise never been able to get a loan. Now the taxpayers are forced to bail out the banks.
This is what low interest rates does. We get people spending A LOT of money they don't have, with banks more than willing to lend the money to them because there are no consequences for issuing bad loans. We have created a system where people who make bad business decisions are rewarded and people who don't are punished. - Bloodwine, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2I tend to look at a house as my shelter, but I know that's crazy talk.
I know what you are saying, but I think too many people treated their homes as investments and glorified ATM's and that helped get us in our mess. People flipping houses, trading up every two years. No stability. - deddiode, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2When referring to willing, negligent foreclosure for personal gain? Yes.
The collapse of the housing market has put this country in dire straights and I refuse to contribute to it if I can help it. It comes down to being a responsible citizen and unfortunately too many people can't even be responsible with a credit card, let alone a house. - charm803, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2Right now is actually a good time to buy.
- RumpleForeskin3, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2Because I work in real estate investment. Which is doing great in times like these.
- uselesslogin, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2I would just like to say that I am one of the homeowners not selling. Of course, I'd prefer to sell since I now own a condo in a city 1,000 miles away from me. Anyway, I would have sold for whatever the price except that my expenses are actually low enough to be covered by rent. I figure I can wait 15 years if I need to and then get some good inflation hedging out of the deal. Better than gold :) But I will take the first reasonable offer...
- JHW539, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2Your logic is mostly correct, but you neglect inflation. It is critical to note that the graph you linked shows *inflation corrected* values. If you think the current government policy is going to result in Carter'esque inflation rates, get thee a fixed rate mortgage ASAP. Rent goes up with inflation, fixed rate mortgage payments don't. (Obama hating fiscal conservatives, put your money where you mouth is and lock in that 30 year mortgage to make a real killing on the upcoming inflation.)
Of course, all the standard disclaimers apply - don't get a stupid mortgage, don't buy outside your realistic affordability range, don't forget all the maintenance and other costs you're buying, and finally DO buy a home not "an investment." My home value has dropped - sweet, my property taxes are down too! - wiggles, on 05/14/2009, -0/+2I work in the newspaper industry, too...
Roodammy44: That's what fixed rate mortgages are for. Lock in your P&I for 30 years.
If you buy soon, Obama's giving you up to 8k as a first time homebuyer: http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/index. ... - heresy_fnord, on 05/14/2009, -0/+1That's my point. You assume that everyone should be equidistant from their job. It's your own fault calling a $300k-500k a starter home. Sometimes you make sacrifices in what area you are in. I have lived in LA, I'm not stupid. $150k out there won't get you anything. You have to move way out. But that's what happens when you want to live in LA. You move way the ***** out so you can afford a reasonable house. $300k is still not a starter home.
- lazyhaze, on 05/14/2009, -1/+2Depends on the market. In some places, starter homes are still listed at 400k. San Diego is one example.
After spending the last 3 months seriously looking at homes here, I am putting my search on hold. All of the homes in halfway decent areas have been very competitive with multiple offers and bidding wars ensue.
I am planning on postponing the search until the fall/winter to see if things will continue to decline, as well as avoiding these traditionally busy real-estate months. Things are too crazy here right now. I am betting as job losses and foreclosures continue, and the banks continue to report huge losses, prices will continue to fall. I don't currently believe any of the hype of "the bottom" or a "turnaround" when unemployment, earnings reports, cost of owning vs cost of renting are all indicating otherwise.
Also, remember that when looking at a home as an investment, don't forget to account for the 6% listing commission when selling that is taken right off the top of any profit, as well as insurance, taxes, closing costs, interest, and maintenance. - rodriguez24, on 05/14/2009, -0/+1dammit. i can only digg this once. I would digg it 100x
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