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146 Comments
- martinj88, on 10/11/2007, -5/+146Google won't die, it will evolve........and change it's name to Skynet
- mahdroo, on 10/11/2007, -10/+85This is a great article. Basically, Google is producing more ideas than it can pursue. Eventually/soon some employees will sell their stock options, leave, and go start companies doing whatever great ideas Google didn't develop on. Those companies are what will someday kill Google.
This author says all that, but with better sentences and thoughts :-) - moocow1452, on 10/11/2007, -2/+47Death and Taxes, man.
- Stonedonkey, on 10/11/2007, -3/+46The gist of the article is that Google's own employees will come up with bright ideas and start their own companies.
Not exactly an explosive revelation. I hope I saved some people the time it would take to read through that guy's meandering internal monologue.
Well played on the sensationalistic headline, though. - Garrey, on 10/11/2007, -11/+51Very nice article to whom ever wrote it.
- inactive, on 10/11/2007, -0/+39i wonder if google has some sort of "those ideas you come up with on our time/dime are owned by google" policy in place. anyone know anything about this?
- fkr3, on 10/11/2007, -5/+43They're competitors because Google has a web based version of Microsoft Word..pad
- redxii, on 10/11/2007, -3/+38Right, they killed Microsoft because we're all using GoogleOS.
- TriZz, on 10/11/2007, -16/+44How are Google and Microsoft even comparable? Microsoft is a software company. Google is an advertising company. Sure, some of their other ventures drain into the same pool where they compete, but the main sources of revenue for both companies are completely different! Until Google creates an OS that will lure people away from Windows (I don't see Google doing this anytime soon - as OS X is much better than Windows and only has like 5% market share) then MS will certainly not be ousted by Google.
Sure, Microsoft wishes it had snagged some of Google's money. Invested in search technologies sooner, got into online advertising earlier, but that's lost/Google's money now. Microsoft is not worried about Google.
PS: I am a huge fan of Google. I think they're a great company...but in reality, they are NOT going to "de-throne" Microsoft. They're playing two different sports. - facelesscoward, on 10/11/2007, -2/+25Nay, I think Google can survive on its search engine alone. I've yet to use one I liked more.
- kindrobot, on 10/11/2007, -2/+17"The gist of the article is that Google's own employees will come up with bright ideas and start their own companies."
Companies Google will then buy. - specialK16, on 10/11/2007, -0/+14In such case, Google can simply buy such small companies at overinflated prices. Just what they do now.
- fkr3, on 10/11/2007, -2/+16They almost certainly do tomplansmedia. They're a company paying people to maintain and produce revenue streams, not a starbucks where people just hang out for socialising.
- kalleanka, on 10/11/2007, -4/+17Lol exactly, MS is still more than twice the value of Google.
Google Search is of course larger than Live Search, but Microsoft is not mainly a search engine company. - tast01, on 10/11/2007, -2/+15one day google will buy the internet
- holyskeleton, on 10/11/2007, -1/+13nah all you need is a goal and constant improvement.
- HigherLogic, on 10/11/2007, -0/+10I would disagree. Most, if not every, company eventually falls and someone else rises, some just take longer than others (e.g. Microsoft).
// Remembers using (this one is a real blast from the past) WebCrawler, Excite, AltaVista, Infoseek, Lycos, HotBot, Yahoo, etc. before Google and PageRank came about...
Someone will inevitably come up with a better algorithm, better method for displaying information, and so on, and so on. - resta6, on 01/12/2009, -3/+12Google will be killed when advertisers realize that click fraud is getting out of hand.
And google shouldn't be worried about people quitting and starting new companies based on the projects they created while at google. Google has the full IP rights in this case, and I'm sure when you pitch an idea its documented. - DeskFlyer, on 10/11/2007, -16/+25Google will never die.
- kindrobot, on 10/11/2007, -2/+9Nah. They'd probably just make the internets require a new battery that only they sell.
- toconnor, on 10/11/2007, -0/+7That logic could be applied to almost every piece of software you use. If there was something you liked more wouldn't you be using that already? The point being that something survives until that point where something else new comes along that you and the intended audience like more.
- Kazbaeden, on 10/11/2007, -1/+7@dengzhi
Companies can't grow exponentially forever. Every company has it's own carrying capacity, and when it reaches it, it will generally just produce revenues very steadily as it operates at its most economic levels. Microsoft, being much older and mature, is at that stage. Google is not.
So with a company as large as Google, being twice as large is something, because it's impossible to be say ten times as large. - futureb, on 10/11/2007, -1/+7they're already buying huge amounts of dark fiber...they just don't advertise it.
- ZaNkY, on 10/11/2007, -1/+7The finals days of Google will be at the hands of...... John Connor!
The "computer company" that Sarah Connor tried to bomb and landed her in a mental institution was really Google's HQ in Mountain View, it's less than 5 hours away from LA...... - GawtMilk, on 10/11/2007, -3/+8@rhoul, Vista is practically a still born
Then OSX and Linux are still borns, too. My logic is that Vista has already sold more copies of both operating systems, put together.
Keep in mind, shipping an operating system to a system vendor counts as a sale. But other than that, there are more Vista computers than OSX and Linux computers IN PEOPLE'S HOMES. Vista is hardly a "still born", but like the PS3 people were ***** all over the large companies. - fkr3, on 10/11/2007, -5/+10Oh noes :(
- kindrobot, on 10/11/2007, -0/+5Click fraud, to me, will only ever be little more than a way to adjust ad rates. It's similar to attempting to track ad RESPONSE in television, radio and newspapers. You can track it to a certain extent, but you will never, EVER know exactly what's happening once those pairs of eyes leave the newspaper, TV or computer screen. You can do surveys, study sample groups, etc, but you will never be able to track everything perfectly.
Google may get the most eyes right now, but it's not like those same rules won't apply to some other online advertising giant. And sounding the death knell of online adverts, period, is a pipe dream. As long as there are eyes and computers and an Internet, it'll be there. - inactive, on 10/11/2007, -1/+6> Companies Google will then buy
Google was started by just a couple of guys with some servers. It didn't occur to Microsoft nor anyone else to purchase them then, and if Microsoft had purchased Google back then we wouldn't have seen the innovation that made Google what it is.
Likewise, no one could have imagined what would happen to that little company that licensed QDOS to IBM in 1981.
Like Cringely (and Bill Gates) says, the company that will eventually kill Google does not exist today. In fact, the company that will kill Google can not even be imagined today. - Bamborzled, on 10/11/2007, -0/+5@rhoul
"And Google is not an 'advertising' company - they are a service provider. Ad Words are simply one service they provide among countless others. Check out Google Labs. They also happen to control the world's most popular search portal, which in turn gives them nearly exclusive access to the most complete and compelling market data research ever recorded."
If by "service", you mean "advertising", then yes, they are a service provider.
Google is an advertising company. A large majority (if not almost all) of Google's profits come from its AdWords business. Sure, they provide other services, but until they turn a profit from any of those (I'm looking at you, YouTube), they are an advertising company because that is how they make their money. Think about it: Their search engine now exists only to drive you to its advertisement pane on the right-hand side of your search results. All of Google's services are to draw you into the ads Google's sponsors pay them to display. Yes, there are some services that are free of ads, but the majority of them include ads for a reason. - revmitcz, on 10/11/2007, -1/+6@diggcopblowme :
Nothing lasts forever. To think that Google's always going to be the top of the top internet-based companies is naive, at best. Those employees who are "happy and engaged in the mission" are one day going to be sick and tired of working under a boss (or many bosses) and they'll have a ridiculous amount of cash that they've had little or no time to spend, and perhaps... with this 20% time and all, they'll say "it's time for me to put my money where my mouth is" and move on.
There was an article on here about a month or two ago, talking about the Google employees who have vested stock and Google's paranoid about trying to keep them at bay - but they're struggling to do so cause what can you offer the newly-made millionaire that he doesn't already have?
Cringely tends to write sensationalistic "doomsday" articles, but this one's pretty spot-on. - inactive, on 10/11/2007, -0/+4But what would they do with all the tubes once they bought the internet? Start a plumbing business. That's what. The biggest, FASTEST plumbing business this world has ever seen.
- Avalontor, on 10/11/2007, -0/+4there is no battle dude, they are not even in the same playing field. grow up
- vanden9, on 10/11/2007, -2/+6We need Google PC
Google cant die till i get one of these. - Avalontor, on 10/11/2007, -0/+4People said that about AltaVista. nice try tho.
- uselessexpert, on 10/11/2007, -2/+5Isn't it to early to sit there and ponder on this?
Unless some of us work at Google, big freaking deal.
For all I care, let all those wonderful PHD's come up with all that wonderful technology that I can put to good use, and the day Google comes down crashing, I will either be dead not to see it, or to old to give a ***** about who cleans up the Google crumbs and takes over. - calenti, on 10/11/2007, -0/+3Yes, I know that does not add up to 400. The 1 is a very, very unlikely event.
- balph, on 10/11/2007, -3/+6Cringely == liar (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/1998/11/11/DD94762.DTL)
- inactive, on 10/11/2007, -0/+3Silicon Valley.
- slipgrid, on 10/11/2007, -1/+4For a start-up to beat Google, they have to be in a different business. And really, one of the hardest and more important functions a computer can do is search and sort data. So, short of finding a hard, important, and profitable problem, or computing moving away from both Windows and client-server computing, I doubt Google will be beat soon.
- shoook, on 10/11/2007, -0/+3The reason creative people are working at Google instead of starting their own ventures is because of the security. Just because you have a great idea, and Google has many of them, doesn't mean you're going to immediately leave a company and start a new one. Only the few bravest, maverick type workers are willing to take a leap of faith like that, and that's why it will be awhile before you see anyone able to beat Google at their own game.
- ChayD, on 10/11/2007, -0/+3The main problem with Google, Microsoft, Apple etc, is that when a company initially starts out small, they are nimble enough
to run rings round the big boys, but company growth gets to a point where there are so many people, politics,
standards, quality programs, investors, rewards, share schemes, paperwork, competitors, change management
processes, takover bids, IPOs, reports, proposals, sales quotas, company cars and all the other 'big company'
afflications that they eventually implode in a shower of corporate bulls**t, leaving the little guys to take over
(until they become equally huge - then the process beings again). In short a corporation is self-destructive to a certain degree. - balph, on 10/11/2007, -2/+4http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/1998/11/11/DD94762.DTL
- calenti, on 10/11/2007, -1/+3Cringely always offers food for comments but I have a few quibbles:
1. Larry and Sergei didn't come from Microsoft - no QED.
2. Most entreprenuers are born, not made. A cube rat does not generally have an idea and say "Voila! Now I will throw away this bi-weekly paycheck teat and strike out on my own with no experience!" Entrepreneurs are always, well, entrepreneuring. So IC needs to adjust his numbers a little
400 good ideas rejected
- 390 Milton Waddams go back to their staplers and watching the married squirrels;
- 5 Derek Smarts decide to do their own thing...poorly;
- 3 Chad / Steve / Jawed troikas get together and create something on their own time that Google buys for an delusional P/E ratio;
- 2 Sid Meier / Chris Crawford / John Carmack types go freelance and have brilliant niche careers but hardly threaten Google;
- 1 Steve Wozniak gets together with a Steve Jobs and founds an Apple. - omgroffles, on 10/11/2007, -2/+3I completely agree. You guys are also probably crazy enough to think that it's possible for a few people from England to sail a ship across the ocean and settle down in newly discovered piece of dirt that would one day turn into a nation that would eventually become the most powerful and influential one in the world...all because they weren't happy with where they came from.
Ya you guys are crazy. - slapthemonkey, on 10/11/2007, -1/+2Very good article.
- toxicityj, on 10/11/2007, -1/+2It's really stupid to compare Google and Microsoft. Google does search engines and some free software. Microsoft does search engines, software, hardware, computer accessories, gaming, promoting Ballmer's on-stage galloping habits, etc, etc. When it comes down to it their only similarities are search engine and software. and google dominates the search and msoft dominates the software. So I fail to see how Google could ever topple Microsoft. Even if they released an OS. Apple has been doing the OS thing just as long as Msoft and they still don't hold dominance in the computer world. (sorry guys, 5% is not equal to dominance)
- thaindian, on 10/11/2007, -1/+2what would be funny is groups of employees leaving google... forming their own company around google with an excellent idea at hand... then on getting bigger they buy google... LOL
- specialK16, on 10/11/2007, -2/+3Oi, ya seem to be from England mate.
- psykiv, on 10/11/2007, -1/+2remember the search engine c4? IMO, that was the best one back in the day.
Now I'm afraid if I type in c4.com into the address bar, Ill be called a terrorist. - inactive, on 10/11/2007, -0/+1I think this is one of those ideas put in the closet in case of new technology outdoing Google, as said in this article:
http://digg.com/tech_news/The_final_days_of_Google
Note:I'm not saying Google IS being outdone, but this is something that might pull them out of the water in the case of being outdone.
This is a cool addition, almost makes a reason to use it instead of Google Earth. Obviously it will be cooler once they get more areas covered, but this is still an awesome start. -
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