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Study claims Windows usage market share could fall below 90%

tgdaily.com — A new study released by Net Applications indicates that a decreasing percentage of the Internet population is using Windows as their operating system. It appears that Mac OS X could soon be listed in the double digit-range, while Windows could fall below the 90% mark.

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  • digitaldivinci, on 07/02/2008, -22/+53Below 90%!? I for one am shaking in my boots.
    • mcmlxxii, on 07/02/2008, -8/+29Why are you Steve Ballmer's secretary or something?
    • reformation, on 07/03/2008, -10/+5Why do people say 'I for one' instead of just 'I'??
      • Angostura, on 07/03/2008, -0/+4Haven't you been on the 'Banter for Beginners' cause, yet old boy?
    • GeorgeStone2, on 07/03/2008, -0/+4Heh, when I read this i couldn't help but think that losing just 4% of the market share in 5 years AND after releasing vista is a bloody good show.
      Well done MS on keeping it so low.

      Also, 90% is still a HUGE percentage.
      • DickBreath, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2When Apple gets as high as 20 % of the market it is no longer an option for major software vendors NOT to offer a Mac version of everything. Otherwise you're leaving 20 % of the money on the table.

        Cross platform toolkits and frameworks will be the norm. Unlike in the late 80's when Apple had a similar market share, today there are plenty of choices of cross platform toolkits and frameworks.

        Many of then have the added benefit of also supporting Linux. This means a major software house then has only a small nominal cost to "port" their application to Linux.
    • CosmicJustice, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2"The research firm measures market share by recording which operating systems are used to browse a set of hand-picked web sites.." A lot of people use their computer as an internet appliance and never venture outside the browser. These folks don't really care what OS they're using.
      • zeebo, on 07/03/2008, -0/+7You have to wonder what those hand picked websites are since those could skew results massively.
      • pauleric, on 07/03/2008, -0/+4slashdot, groklaw, and macrumors. You got a problem with that?
    • jackusage, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1I know I'm a geek but most the VMs I run do not use the Windows OS.
    • FutureGuy, on 07/03/2008, -1/+9The study also predicts that at this rate Windows would fall below 80% by 2050 and below 50 by 3100, Windows may not be the prefered OS on Mars.
      • bbqsalad, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1When all the ladies have 3 boobs do we even need computers anymore?
  • Awspire, on 07/02/2008, -17/+7Microsoft is contributing their OS (winxp@$3.00 per laptop) to the One laptop Per Child program, so if that takes off, Microsoft's loss will be recouped by the flood of OLPC's hitting the streets. Smart move on their part, well, at least statistic wise. On another note, OLPC has been hit with quite a bit of controversy. The wikipedia article is rather an interesting read. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Laptop_per_Child
  • AngelBunny, on 07/02/2008, -17/+20awkward ... i thought windows was less than 90% already.
    • TypeEE, on 07/03/2008, -0/+11You have to look out side of US too. There are countries where Macs are not popular at all.
    • dreed47, on 07/03/2008, -7/+1well, it's already WAY below 90% in my household and that's all I really care about anyway.
      • TheUngod, on 07/03/2008, -0/+5Screw looking globally, you're not even looking outside!
    • skidooer, on 07/03/2008, -3/+5Linux has 45% of the server market. Apple has 23% of the US consumer market. I'm sure Windows really does have over 90% of some market, but without knowing what market that is, it's a pretty meaningless metric.
      • carlosos, on 07/03/2008, -1/+223%???
        Isn't that a little high for even the US consumer market or do you count ipods and/or iphones?
        I actually know more people that run some version of linux than OSX but maybe it is just the area in live in.
    • prophetpimp, on 07/03/2008, -2/+2IE is less then 90%, Not windows.
  • dankoleary, on 07/02/2008, -8/+22Has anyone else noticed that more of their work is moving to webapps? Google alone means no matter what the OS, the desktop operating system is getting less important.
    • estvir, on 07/03/2008, -7/+21And next to no one has heard of let alone uses things like Google Docs. Also, anyone who thinks that webapps will truly replace desktop software is insane.
      • threemagic, on 07/03/2008, -2/+14You are right, estvir. What will replace desktop software is virtualization (pushed apps in their own sandbox).
      • nicnic77, on 07/03/2008, -10/+6Yeah, also don't forget that "640k of RAM is enough for everybody"
      • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -4/+1Dude you are being dugg down for being correct. No worries. On posts like this being dugg down is usually a badge of honor. Enjoy.
      • WallyAnti, on 07/03/2008, -3/+2and why pray-tell is that insane?

        Anyone who can't explain themselves is stupid.
      • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -2/+1WallyAnti:

        Comments are yours are pretty stupid since you can't use simple logic and common since to understand his comment to begin with.
      • EtherGnat, on 07/03/2008, -1/+2"Also, anyone who thinks that webapps will truly replace desktop software is insane."

        It's certainly not going to happen overnight, but with Google Gears and similar technologies that let you use web apps offline it certainly could happen.
    • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -5/+15Please remind us of the top three uses for computers. Unless the more popular software vendors have suddenly chosen to support OSX I seriously doubt anything will change outside of the imaginations of the Mac faithful.
      • Angostura, on 07/03/2008, -3/+4My guess would be:

        1. Microsoft Office
        2. Web, E-mail etc
        3. Games.

        1 and 2 are fine. Games is the obvious weak point, and even there the situation is improving (slowly).

        For enterprises, the lack of proper MS Exchange support has been a killer. It will be interesting to see how that changes with the release of Snow Leopard.
    • blackdude, on 07/03/2008, -0/+3I wouldn't say that at all, most general apps are getting some web recognition (word processors, email obviously, messaging obviously, couple other things) but for the most part there are loads of programs that I never see getting wired to the web (in fact, the vast, vast majority).
    • mhender, on 07/03/2008, -0/+6Here's the problem with your comment, dankoleary:
      you think that Digg users reflect the general public in terms of computer usage. Sure, 90% of digg may know what Google docs are, but I don't think Digg represents anything near a percent of overall computer users. Remember when everyone thought they could Digg Ron Paul into office? Look where that ended.
      • truck87bp, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1The Ron Paul thing isn't over yet. Fox just gave him an interview about the economy. You can't predict anything unless YOU are controlling the outcome like, not giving Dr. R. Paul fair air time on TV or OIL predictions as an example where every prediction has been met.
        The biggest problem with Digg is, they don't allow anyone to see how many times a Digg link has been read. Actual accessed information by people through Digg is in my perspective, much more important than people who are too paranoid to express their own opinion as Diggers. The Diggs really don't tell the whole story but the number of times a web page was accessed does. This is my biggest gripe about Digg and they have the stats.
      • mhender, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1"The Ron Paul thing isn't over yet."
        I'm not trying to sound like a total ass. But yeah, it is.
  • celkin, on 07/03/2008, -27/+4NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (I just wanted to break Digg.)
    • 4DFX, on 07/03/2008, -3/+10You are a great example of why Windows still has more than 90% of the market share.
  • sgtcaboose, on 07/03/2008, -10/+3Firstly go to the Net Applications website, it looks like a frontpage job. http://www.netapplications.com/

    Only ***** Mac users would use this ***** on their websites, Windows users dont need counters as Frontpage has them!
    (If you cant .. blah blah.. sarcasm, lighten up)
  • 2Deluxe, on 07/03/2008, -4/+27Oh crap, flamebait. Everyone whip out your e-peen!
  • Vtorch, on 07/03/2008, -9/+2Not going to happen.
  • clak, on 07/03/2008, -16/+7If Macs had 20 percent of the market, I would be satisfied, but I wouldn't want to see more than that, because it would just give Apple unnecessary support headaches. Apple already is about half the size of Microsoft in market capitalization with 6 percent of the market, so 20 percent of the market would make them bigger than Microsoft.

    And I keep hearing people say that Apple could make so much more money licensing OS X and that's just baloney. Apple would die if they licensed their OS X and here's why.

    You can only make money licensing an operating system if you have a MONOPOLY like Microsoft.

    Microsoft licenses Windows to PC manufacturers, also known as OEMs, for 20 dollars a license (this is their volume pricing). Apple has about 25 million users. So do the math. Even if licensing OS X doubled Apple's market share to 50 million over night using Microsoft's pricing scheme, that would only be 1 billion dollars of revenue.

    50,000,000 users X $20 = 1,000,000,000.

    Of course, this is in an ideal world where Apple doesn't lose licenses to piracy, but I digress. Even if Apple sold OS X for the full 129 dollars, the most they would make would be around 6.5 billion and that's assuming again that licensing would double their current install base to 50 million users.

    50,000,000 users X $129 = 6,450,000,000.


    I have no hard data to back this up, but I think it's reasonable to say that Apple makes around 1000 dollars on average selling Macs to its customer base. Every Mac, except for the Mac Mini is at least 1000 dollars, right? So do the math.

    25,000,000 users X $1000 = 25,000,000,000.


    So, you see, Apple is making at least 25 billion (it's almost certainly more) selling Macs to its current user base. Would you rather have an imaginary 6.5 billion or a very real 25 billion?

    This entire scenario, of course, ignores the fact that licensing their operating system would mean that Apple would have to SUPPORT literally thousands of different hardware configurations, which would create a horror show of driver problems, which would almost certainly dilute the stability of OS X and the Mac brand. So as you can see, licensing OS X makes absolutely NO SENSE and it's never going to happen, so I wish people would stop talking about it already.

    • threemagic, on 07/03/2008, -4/+6Here's where you are wrong: Apple is a hardware company. Apple won't license OS X because they won't sell any hardware... simple.
      • clak, on 07/03/2008, -2/+4Dude, did you read what I just wrote? That was exactly my point.
      • threemagic, on 07/03/2008, -3/+2@clak: yes, I read your long winded reasoning. It's not that difficult to say.. APPLE IS A HARDWARE COMPANY.

        It's very simple... Apple couldn't care less if you ran Windows on THEIR hardware. OS X is just like the free first one, it just suckers you in to buy the bigger stuff.
    • over9k, on 07/03/2008, -7/+4How is Microsoft a monopoly? PC makes have plenty of choice regarding alternative OS. For example Dell ships with Ubuntu. If there is any monopoly it's Apple with it's OS + hardware tie in. If Apple gets any bigger I wouldn't be surprised if they were slapped with an anti trust suit.
      • Kelmon, on 07/03/2008, -3/+1Why would Apple get slapped with a lawsuit that wins for not allowing other computer manufacturers to license their OS? What's illegal here? The only reason Microsoft got whacked by an anti-trust lawsuit was because they abused their position as the developer of the OS to push their applications on users while making it more difficult for other Windows developers to produce competitors. There is no parallel here with the Mac OS or Macintosh hardware.
    • Ganja420, on 07/03/2008, -4/+1Uhm no
      microsoft does more than just sell windows
      and im pretty sure Apple makes more off itunes and ipods than they do with operating systems

      "but I wouldn't want to see more than that, because it would just give Apple unnecessary support headaches." unnecessary?? i gues growing market share isn't necessary, is what you are trying to say
    • reformation, on 07/03/2008, -2/+6Is this the most stupid piece of guesswork ever?
    • blackdude, on 07/03/2008, -1/+4Your logic is heavily flawed.
    • Kelmon, on 07/03/2008, -0/+4While you are correct that licensing OS X would be the stupidest thing that Apple could do (more or less), I don't understand the relevance of this in the context of the article.
  • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -10/+7And in related news supermodels have unanimously chosen to only date diggers.
    • tim620, on 07/03/2008, -1/+3Sweet! I've been searching online for a supermodel date, but haven't found one yet.
    • thailand1972, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1MrBabyMan is the short straw.
  • Kmap, on 07/03/2008, -12/+2190% is still total domination. The only contender is Linux, and even that is not user friendly enough to be considered mainstream.
    • threemagic, on 07/03/2008, -4/+2The numbers are saturated already. For their market share to fall that means new purchases have to be using alternative OSes. So the market share for new purchases has to be fairly even between the MS, OS X, and linux users.
    • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -8/+13No *****. This article reads like the wishful thinking of a Mac fanboy.
    • Commodus, on 07/03/2008, -10/+4How is Linux the "only" contender when the Mac has several times its share? Linux only really enjoys a sizeable share in server rooms. On the desktop, the Mac's the next best choice.
      • jamesdew, on 07/03/2008, -0/+6because you have to buy a mac, if Apple release OSX for any machine then it becomes a proper competitor
    • JQP123, on 07/03/2008, -6/+5"The only contender is Linux, and even that is not user friendly enough to be considered mainstream."

      The "only contender" has less than 1% market share according to the article.

      But I'm sure that will change since I read on the web that 2009 is definitely *the* year for Linux on the desktop.
      • natenovs, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1and it has actually dropped in market share over the last five years.

        if you're giving away something for free, and people still don't want it, you're doing something wrong.
      • JQP123, on 07/04/2008, -0/+1"... you're doing something wrong."

        What's fundamentally wrong is the underlying Unix philosophy. It's the idea that users should learn to accomodate and serve the needs of software rather than vice versa. This just won't work ... if you expect ordinary people to embrace your product.
  • PabloIV, on 07/03/2008, -5/+47If Linux>0
    then
    90% Windows != 10% Mac
    • zakatov, on 07/03/2008, -8/+3Isn't Linux less than 1% tho?
      • hakro807, on 07/03/2008, -0/+0Linux has something like a 3% worldwide marketshare. Just a tad smaller than OS X.
    • hendrickchan, on 07/03/2008, -3/+12If Windows < 90% and Linux>0, its possible that 10% Mac.
    • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -3/+4What?
    • JQP123, on 07/03/2008, -3/+8Linux is low enough to be captured within the roundoff error from the other two.
    • AttilaD, on 07/03/2008, -2/+2if (RTFA >= 1)
      {
      uranIdiot = false;
      }
      • gabacho2, on 07/03/2008, -1/+2Ooh, greater-than compare on a bool? Epic performance failure. Better hope the compiler fixes that for you
      • AttilaD, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2its an integer counting the number of times you read the article. What the hell made you think it was boolean? noob.
  • m00nmaster, on 07/03/2008, -2/+15That would be great. Competition means the consumer wins!
  • Masternajee, on 07/03/2008, -3/+4It is interesting to note that the change in percentage is from Apple and not Linux. I would venture to say that Linux is going to have an impact over the next few years.
    • JQP123, on 07/03/2008, -1/+2"I would venture to say that Linux is going to have an impact over the next few years."

      I would venture to say that you (along with many others here) have been saying this for quite a few years now. At some point, don't you just get tired and bored from being repeatedly proven wrong?

      But I do agree that Linux may yet have an impact ---- once the traditional desktop starts losing ground --- when/if large numbers start abandoning the desktop altogether in favor of "net appliances" where noone sees or really cares about the underlying OS.
  • racco, on 07/03/2008, -1/+9THE END IS NIGH ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !
  • junkwheel, on 07/03/2008, -3/+10OH NO! Not 89%!!!!

    Seriously, if Windows usage does hit 89%, that would be NUTS.

    I love statistics!
  • Solid07, on 07/03/2008, -8/+2Meh. Nothing to worry about. Windows still has more than 90% program compatibility support. Although, unless MS comes up with a decent windows xp replacement, they'll be looking forward to losing more customers.
  • sporg, on 07/03/2008, -1/+29Who cares?
    • norman619, on 07/03/2008, -6/+14The Mac fanboys. Haven't you been paying attention?
    • zakatov, on 07/03/2008, -4/+9As a shareholder in Apple, I do, as do all the rest of the shareholders
    • WallyAnti, on 07/03/2008, -0/+5I'd like to see MS finally go the way of the dinosaurs. We need more software producers who are interested in converging on standards for the sake of compatibility. Not companies like MS who like to do things like come up with their own useless file formats ONLY for the sake of control. Or coming up with their own web standards.

      That's not innovation. Actually it's the opposite. We need new companies that feel compelled to make things useful for the customer as a main priority.

      Why aren't more people greatly offended by measures that are anti competitive. I take it as a big insult. I don't make further purchases from such companies.


      • sporg, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2You are right Wally Microsoft does nothing but try to perpetuate its own hold on the market they don't give a hoot about innovation. To them Innovation is some incredibly invasive licensing and control program riddled with back doors and phone home spyware. It is a big insult to everyone and that is the reason I don't buy microsoft products I take pleasure in pirating them. Before anyone shouts "switch to Linux" I already tried it and I wasn't impressed.
  • jeffs3rd, on 07/03/2008, -5/+5Don't get me wrong, I am a fan of linux. But I say big deal if Windows Market share drops below 90%, if it's not there already (which I thought I read a year or two it was below 90%). Windows is still going to be the dominant OS, a % point here or there isn't going to matter.
  • tim620, on 07/03/2008, -6/+15Windows usage has dropped to 50% in my house. :-)
    • srg13, on 07/03/2008, -2/+5Probably something less than 5% for my house - if you count the time spent using it, not the number of installs (which would be more like 15% windows)
      • natenovs, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2how many computers do you have in your house??
  • macmangb, on 07/03/2008, -11/+8Just proves that the majority of computer users are idiots.
    • TheTaoOfBill, on 07/03/2008, -6/+9Yes. I'm the idiot for going with the opperating system with the most programs and best compatibility.

      I'd love to move to the more stable mac OS but I'm not moving there until programmers actually feel it is worthy to move over. Until then Windows Vista has worked very well for both my programming classes and my gaming hobby. Both of which would be more difficult on a mac

      And if your answer is you can run Windows on a mac then what is the point of having a mac in the first place. There is no benefit to having a mac for me and way too many negatives.
    • veriix, on 07/03/2008, -0/+8Isn't that the target audience for macs? People so stupid they can't even use windows? I know there are other people who use macs but that's what they've been implying in there commercials for years.
    • FutureGuy, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1ok genius /s
  • elveis, on 07/03/2008, -2/+2Move along people. Nothing to see here.
  • veriix, on 07/03/2008, -1/+23"The survey lists Apple’s Mac OS X operating system market share in June with a record 7.94%, which is a 0.11 point increase over the previous month. This figure makes OS X the best-selling UNIX variant ever with the largest overall share of the market. Linux currently stands at 0.80% market share in this survey, a slight improvement over the 0.68% recorded last month."

    So OS X gains 0.11% and its zomg microsoft is dead!!1! Linux gains 0.12% and it's "a slight improvement" wtf?
    • worminater, on 07/03/2008, -1/+9that means it's a crappy article.
    • Angostura, on 07/03/2008, -2/+3Yes, it is only a slight improvement in terms of user figures, since Linux only commands .8% of the market.
      • veriix, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1No, it's not. Improvement is improvement. I mean hell, percentage of new users was a LOT higher in linux then it was in macs. I'm not gonna add up the total percentages because it's too early and I really don't care.
      • threemagic, on 07/03/2008, -2/+3@verilix: I wrote an OS that I use. My friend is now using it... I have 100 PERCENT increase in usage...

        why is my OS not listed?
  • earthforce1, on 07/03/2008, -2/+4We skew the statistics a bit at my house - 6 computers, all running Linux.
    • Frost9999, on 07/03/2008, -4/+2Unfortunately, you actually make no impact on the stats at all... even if you had 1000 linux boxes in your house it still wouldn't be a blip on the graph compared with windows market share.
  • mogebier, on 07/03/2008, -8/+9So this story was created to give all the Apple lovers a stiffy today??
  • blackdude, on 07/03/2008, -3/+2You know the other companies are getting their asses whipped when people talk about Microsoft falling below _90%_ of OS market share. Sure, apple sells hardware+software but if windows power is that great, and people are talking about percentage of point drops like it's major news, that should tell the general person that Microsoft has still has some serious power.

    Also the fact that the title is: "Study claims Windows usage market share _could_fall_below_90%_" makes this story pointless. Hell, you don't need a study, common sense could have told you that. I doub't this company and it's software will last forever.
  • hamobu, on 07/03/2008, -11/+6Apple is Starbucks of computers - trendy and unnecessarily expensive. I expect their market share to fall in the bad economy.
    • chevyorange, on 07/03/2008, -2/+2Your expectations have not been realized. If you look, they're actually doing better and growing during the downturn as opposed to other PC manufacturers.

      http://www.theregister.co.uk/2001/07/18/apple_sees ...
      • hamobu, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2i would imagine it would take longer for the poor economy to reflect in the sales of computers rather than the sales of coffee. But if you read the article you linked to, you will already see signs of trouble:

        The Mac maker's third quarter closed with revenue at $1.475 billion, down 19 per cent on the same period last year. Despite that fall, the company posted a profit of $61 million (17 cents a share). This time last year, it posted a profit of $200 million (55 cents a share), though that figure included the sale of a portion of Apple's reserve of ARM shares.
      • geoffrobinson, on 07/03/2008, -0/+0Why would you expect coffee sales to be down faster than $1000+ computers?
      • hamobu, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1georrrobinson: Why would you expect coffee sales to be down faster than $1000+ computers?

        1. You buy coffee daily, so the effect on sales is immediate.
        2. Decision to buy a computer can take longer, and is not likely to be reversed on a dime. This is especially true for large organization which may have budgeted money for new computers while ago.
        3. If you have used Macs before, you probably somewhat locked into the ecosystem, and PC is not a drop in replacement for Macs they way home brewed coffee is a drop in replacement for Starbucks coffee.
        4. Etc.
    • cadmiumpaint, on 07/03/2008, -3/+2Microsoft is the GM of computers. Over produced, poorly designed, unreliable, power guzzling, unimaginative american crap.

      I beat you at the metaphor game. =p
      • hamobu, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1Actually it is the other way around. GM and Ford bet on unnecessarily expensive and wasteful SUVs. Honda, on the other hand, saw 20% increase in sales of it's civics and accord line due to their smaller size and fuel efficiency. GM too is seeing a higher demand for it's tiny Chevy Aveo.
      • over9k, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1you do realize microsoft doesn't make computers
    • wuggysnark, on 07/03/2008, -1/+0They seem to be doing just fine in the bad economy.
      • hamobu, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1Wait a bit. It takes some time for things to settle.
  • yertthedigger, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1What these things don't point out is that this is a result of growing sales on one sides part but not shrinking sales on the others part. Honestly, the amount of Windows computers out there could stagnate, but the amount of computers in the world could still be growing, resulting in less marketshare for Windows.

    Not that big a deal for me as I've had no troubles finding programs for whatever platform I'm on, regardless of a useless number such as marketshare. The only thing this could result in is more competition from the softwares, making computers better.
  • palewook, on 07/03/2008, -0/+5cats & dogs living together..
  • MarkBroadhurst, on 07/03/2008, -0/+3I think they need to look at those figures there are more than 2 OS's.
    If its not Windows its not always a Mac.
  • JasonCox, on 07/03/2008, -2/+6I call BS if only because these numbers are never accurate and every stats company puts out different numbers.

    Example: Firefox has 30% of the browser market. Sounds good, eh? Well I didn't add the last part: "in Europe".

    Last year I saw stats that put Mac usage anywhere from 2% to 8% of the market. Personally I'm more inclined to believe Mac usage is more around 4% but that's just based off of traffic at all the websites I own.
  • lenny4422, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2So at what point could Dell sue Apple for not allowing OSX to run on their machines? ~70%?

    If Apple had 90% AMD would be dead and Intel would be raping left and right.
    • Kelmon, on 07/03/2008, -0/+3Never. Why should Apple have to allow Dell, or anyone else, from making computers that run the Mac OS? Where is the law that compels a company to license its products to others?
  • JasonCox, on 07/03/2008, -1/+3Statistically Mac owners are the #1 buyer of retail copies of Windows Vista, so this is a win for Microsoft too. How you ask? Simple. Best Buy doesn't sell Windows at Dell's hugely discounted price so when Mac users pick up their copy of Windows to run in Boot Camp or their favorite virtualization software, Microsoft actually makes more money than they would selling it via OEM channels.
    • cadmiumpaint, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2please show some sources to back that up.
    • Kelmon, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1Er, OK... I don't know how you came to that conclusion, but if it helps I can tell you that I bought my copy of Windows XP as an OEM version from Amazon. I don't see any reason why Mac users wouldn't buy OEM versions of Windows Vista, or any reason why Windows XP users wouldn't buy retail versions of Vista.
  • Kazbaeden, on 07/03/2008, -5/+1Funny, this "study" fails to mention that two months ago Windows saw a .07% gain and Mac saw a .10% loss. How come that didn't indicate the death of Apple, but this indicates the death of MS?

    http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid= ...
    • geoffrobinson, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1Because the article didn't say "death" it said "below 90%".
    • arjie, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1Wow, most useless graph ever.
  • cbeach, on 07/03/2008, -3/+12Will digg commenters stop the constant whining about "Mac Fanboys" It's more frustrating to listen to fanboy-haters than it is to listen to fanboys themselves. At the moment it seems the fanboy-haters outnumber the fanboys too.
    • AlvesLopes, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2I just hate the fanboys haters, which makes me a fanboy of hating fanboy haters.
  • paulsmith288, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2Web stats are always crap. For example - my firefox linux browser sometimes identifies as windows xp internet explorer - for sites with stupid IE only checks.
    • multifoiled, on 07/03/2008, -0/+2Yeah, I'm sure that's the norm and massively affects statistics.
  • ArmedandDWI, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1It's amusing in and of itself that articles are being written about PROJECTED usage in the future.
  • zeebo, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1If their numbers are correct, Linux would only have about 8 million users world-wide. Considering that there are individual distros with that many users and Linux based machines like the EEE have had several million sales I don't quite think that their numbers are very accurate, unless they don't count small portable devices (even laptop-like ones) as being 'computers' (unless they run windows), because lets face it small Linux devices are everywhere now, with many people who own one not even realizing it, or caring. Many of them probably use those devices far more than they use their PCs today.

    But lets not kid ourselves here, there are more people who pirate Windows XP than use MacOS, Linux, and Windows Vista combined I've heard numbers as high as 40% (and people are surprised when botnets can take down sites like Amazon). Those people will never pay for any sort of software, and counting them as Windows marketshare is a joke, at least when it comes to using them to using them to talk managers into making support decisions.

    If you want your application to be future proof today, develop a web app and pay attention to portable compatibility. Because its more than likely that webkit equipped phones will be everywhere soon.
  • edebolt, on 07/03/2008, -6/+3Linux users have some sort of eternally optimistic Napolean complex... Any day now the share of the Linux desktop market will zoom from .6 % to Single Digits..... Off we go to conquer Waterloo.
    • Phocion55, on 07/03/2008, -1/+4"Linux currently stands at 0.80% market share in this survey, a slight improvement over the 0.68% recorded last month."

      Off we go.
  • Shenzhov, on 07/03/2008, -2/+189% lol.
    I think Jim Stafford summed it up the best in his song Swamp Witch.

    "There ain't much pride when your trapped inside a slowly sink'n ship."
  • Viper244, on 07/03/2008, -2/+2However, Windows will not be surpassed for another 21 year. If you look at the rate at which Mac is gaining market share and Windows is loosing market share in the last year, and assume the same rate for both, then they will not equal the same market share for another 21 years. The math is...
    August 2007 to June 2008:
    Windows: 93.06% - 90.89% = 2.17% loss
    Mac: 7.94% - 6.18% = 1.76%
    Closure rate: 2.17% + 1.76% = 3.93%
    Therefore they are closing at a rate of 3.93% per year.
    Market share difference: 90.89% - 7.94% = 82.95%
    For them to reach the same market share it would take 82.95% / 3.93%per year = 21.1 years.
    Source: ( http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid= ... )

    While this does assume the same rate as the average of the last year, this is still a long time. A lot can happen in 21 years, especially in the tech industry.
    • multifoiled, on 07/03/2008, -2/+1Considering the rate Windows marketshare is dwindling over the last 2 or 3 years, your math is a waste of time.
    • nixfu, on 07/03/2008, -1/+4Unless you track the business market seperate from the home market your wasting your time.

      The 'personal pc' marketshare might go down to 80, then 70, then 60% before the business market every goes below 99%.

  • Admonitor, on 07/03/2008, -1/+3Reading around other forums, you'd think that Windows having less than 99% market share makes Microsoft a failure, whilst anything about 5% for Apple somehow makes them the premier computing company. Who really cares? It's not the Windows users who need to constantly cite market share statistics..
  • Zippo, on 07/03/2008, -6/+4Good... maybe people are finally realizing Windows is garbage and are switching to Linux or OS X.
    • truck87bp, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1I'm becoming a major Ubuntu user but Windows isn't garbage. It is slower than Ubuntu and gets attacked more often than it should but its not garbage. Using windows since 1994 has given me the tools I needed to be comfortable to try Linux Ubuntu. I guess my biggest gripe with windows is they are always trying to figure out new ways to suck huge amounts of money from my pocket. I was a big gamer at one time but it finally wore off and I am now realizing that learning about the world we live in is much more important. You also don't need expensive equipment or software to continue using the net for many years to come except that MS constantly tries to change that through proprietary standards. Hopefully ISO will block this crap and we all will be much better off. Freedom and innovation is important!
  • nixfu, on 07/03/2008, -2/+2Well, at some point developers, websites etc will have to make THIS decision:

    Do I really want to keep using Microsoft-only solutions and LOOSE instantly a potential 10%+ of all my customers? Will my boss think that is a good idea?

  • nixfu, on 07/03/2008, -3/+3I want to know the break down of HOME USERS versus BUSINESS USERS.

    Microsofts 90% overall could be 99% business and 50% home.


    I have a feeling that the HOME MARKET is WELL beyond 90% for Microsoft already...considering that something like 40-50% of all laptops on campus are now Apples, and how Apple has about 20% of the overall laptop market now etc..



    Is there anywhere that tracks the marketshare of the different segments?


    What is the "Home PC marketshare"? Is Microsoft only 80%, 75%?



    Microsoft will loose SIGNIFICANT marketshare in the home market long before the business market drops from even 99.9%.

    The business market (who is very slow to change) will SKEW the total marketshare numbers for a long long time before people realize what is happening.
    • AlvesLopes, on 07/03/2008, -1/+2The business market will never take Mac because Mac is not made for business. Arguments against that are of pure ignorance.

  • Barbarino, on 07/03/2008, -1/+190% of statistics can be made to say anything, 50% of the time...
  • WomensUnderwear, on 07/03/2008, -7/+2mac and linux are nothing, zero, insignificant useless *****. windows laughs at them, when it can see them, which is hardly ever as it stands proud, miles above them, waving a giant pecker and enormous balls as it urinates freely
    • Amiga501, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1Ha ha ha. You are a man of great wisdom, and I feel honored in your presence. Sincerely.
  • t4m5t3r, on 07/03/2008, -2/+1this may not seem like much, but most of this has happened since the release of vista which was only in 2007, thats only about a year and a half ago, and unless windows 7 is gonna be some amzing innovation in OS technology its only gonna get worse for M$,

    and im think windows 7 will be vista "reskinned" with some other "improvements", also i work for one of the biggest PC manufacturers in the world, (well i work for them now, but their american, and paying people off because the american economy is about 2 months from collapsing, so i may not work there for very long!) however they are training us and other techs in linux, which is good since iv never realy used it, but if their training us, theres got to be a reason for it?! (and i know they can sell linux systems in huge numbers due to a "deal" with MS, thats why the linux systems they sell have "maximum requirements" which they are not allowed to go over if linux is pre-installed, vista or XP however it can be any spec.)

    im thinking that once server 2003 is obsolete thier forcing whatever the newer probably less efficient one is, we'll be changing to linux for in-house systems, which would allow our current systems to work better than they do now with XP , not that their that bad realy, but vista is a no-no. We had vista systems for 2 weeks (if that) and then they HAD to be changed back to XP, and if a big company like that is not going to pay the massve amount of money to have all their in ghouse software re-made for vista, i dont imagine many more will, so that 90% is most likely going to get a lot smaller in the near future!
  • Cherubim, on 07/03/2008, -3/+0Microsoft does not have a monopoly in the operating system market. They simply have a large installed base due to volume discounting for OEMs (preloads) and valued clients. The quality of their client operating systems is abysmal yet their server products are quite good. A real schizo situation.


  • AVigorVermin, on 07/03/2008, -1/+1could you imagine what would happen if Microsoft suddenly decided to take the apple approach and lock the OS onto their own hardware? It'd be pandemonium
    • hakro807, on 07/03/2008, -0/+0That is in fact a really interesting thought. I don't have answers of how the industry would react although.
      • zeebo, on 07/03/2008, -0/+1Dell, HP and other PC manufacturers already have product lines built around linux, some of which are quite popular. We'd likely see someone else raised up as the new industry standard. It might take a few years but eventually most people would gather around a common platform again. It would probably be very good for the industry to have some new blood come out on top. Ultimately I think that's exactly what's going to happen, but it isn't going to happen because Microsoft decides to go the apple route. Its going to happen because the operating system is slowly ceasing to matter as a platform. When companies start shipping hardware with an embedded linux or bsd environment that comes up instantly and provides a web browser Windows will only matter to the people who actually need it in much the same way that Mac users buy Windows today.
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