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98 Comments
- phike, on 01/13/2009, -8/+59*****. Anyone want to make that bet with me? No way Apple gets 40% of the market by 2013.
- disraeligears54, on 01/14/2009, -4/+49Buried as inaccurate, the world is going to end in 2012.
- mmittimm, on 01/14/2009, -1/+41Yeah, because nothing's going to change before 2013.
- alife, on 01/14/2009, -2/+39And by 2075 Apple is going to sell 135% of the world smartphones, if sales continues to go up at the same pace.
- rdldr1, on 01/14/2009, -0/+33BS - how are you going to sell 40% of smartphones if Apple is contractually obligated to only sell iPhones exclusively through AT&T until 2012!?!?!?
- kaffiene, on 01/14/2009, -1/+21Utter rubbish. iPhones are only really happening in the US - the rest of the world doesn't participate in the cult of Mac to anywhere near the same degree.
- mkpaa, on 01/14/2009, -0/+13Good joke.
"Right now, Apple has the best platform and the best-looking forward roadmap." They do have a nice browser, but thats about it. - sweetl, on 01/14/2009, -0/+13i agree with phike.
until they sort out its limitations its simply not going to.
palm pre, anyone? - garionw, on 01/14/2009, -1/+12I don't think so - have they got 40% of the desktop market yet? and its been how many years?
- twelfthofmarch, on 01/13/2009, -2/+13If things stay the way they are now then maybe but if Googles phone gets better then that might change things.
- pukiman, on 01/14/2009, -0/+11Got to "Analysts predicting" and stopped reading.
- pika2000, on 01/14/2009, -2/+12And who's the 60%? Android? =)
- Eslamicolt3, on 01/14/2009, -0/+9Hmm by that extrapolated logic, Apple will about 160% by 2023! Wow!
- jsmithers, on 01/14/2009, -0/+9Phike, agreed. TOTAL BS! As a pro mobile analyst myself (I get paid to know about this stuff), I'd say this really is total wishful thinking. But, lets indulge it for a second. For this to happen (Apple 40% smartphone market share) we'd need to see ALL the iPhone's flaws fixed. That means:
* software support for everything that's missing - MMS, Java, Flash, cut and paste, you name it.
* a MUCH cheaper handset - perhaps in the form of an iPhone Nano.
* Zero ties to carriers. I know in the US you guys know little else, but elsewhere people will laugh in your face for the sort of sh1t that US consumers put up with (without even realising it)
* A RADICALLY better camera. Yes, really. Over here in Europe we now expect 5MP with Xenon flash and a quality lens. As you get on most Nokias these days, even the cheap ones (e.g. 6220 Classic).
* A totally open appstore - no approvals by Apple. Users can install what they want, when they want, from where they want.
Put all this together and you'll have something that is better than Nokia (current world market smartphone, and phone, leader by a LOOOOONG way)
Otherwise, DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH. - inactive, on 01/14/2009, -2/+11This is bad for phones!
- alexwilks88, on 01/14/2009, -0/+8Right, so despite Palm having a fabulous new device, Blackberry still churning out some decent devices, Android going big-time this year and a new version of WinMo in the pipelines, people will still blindly swarm to the iPhone? To be honest, I think 25% is a more realistic figure- maybe 30, but certainly not 40%. These market analysts tend to get this sort of thing wrong all the time- I swear we're all meant to be using Linux now. Cause it's free, you know?
- inactive, on 01/14/2009, -0/+8Nobody can afford the #1 selling handset in the country? Really?
- farfromsubtl, on 01/14/2009, -2/+10Whao! He's willing to make a bet? Since you are willing to wager your own money to prove your point, and most certainly would honour said wager, I am just going to assume that you are right without argument.
- e2superman, on 01/14/2009, -1/+9cool-kid smartphones == mac nerds == 5% market.
- Eminemdrdre00, on 01/14/2009, -4/+11Percent is one word.
- sanderton, on 01/14/2009, -1/+7Both forms are in my dictionary.
- fritzek, on 01/14/2009, -4/+1040% of smartphones? Hardly
40% of cool-kid smartphones? Maybe. - MrBogard, on 01/14/2009, -0/+6Dugg for not blindly hating WinMo. Everyone (myself included) is excited about Palm's new device, and second generation Android handsets, but the fact is that current WinMo 6 handsets are pretty awesome. My Titan/Mogul is crippled by its lack of physical memory and it's *still* awesome, and The Touch Pro/Fuze is one of the best smartphones available in the US market.
Hell, when you bundle WinMo 6 with TouchFlo it's even a joy to USE, never mind the vast software library and functionality. I'm not attached to any phone OS, but I've been pretty happen with how far WinMo has come since that first pocket PC I owned ten or so years ago.
I want a Pre. I want a cool Android phone. I want a new WinMo handset. I don't care about iPodPhone. Not that there's (much of) anything wrong with that either. - sweetl, on 01/14/2009, -0/+6i think you miss the point, google doesnt make phones. it has an alliance (see: open handset alliance) of handset builders, it makes the software. android ftw.
- mmittimm, on 01/14/2009, -0/+6Per cent is a common spelling in England and is completely acceptable for use in the english language.
http://www.bartleby.com/68/10/4510.html - Grazfather, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5Buried for *****
- Baryn, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5Yes, please. PLEASE.
- hazello, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5Yeah, whatever. They're doing well now, but this market is way to dynamic to call like that. There are major disadvantages to the way Apple arranges everything, i.e. one hardware manufacturer, phones that must be 'jailbroken' to be totally functional, even ONE CELL CARRIER - I just don't think so.
- rakeshishere, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3249/2887662510_d36 ...
- z00k, on 01/14/2009, -1/+6I think we're going to see this percent drop when the Nokia N97 comes out.
- everlast88, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5If only AT&T had decent coverage.
- KboT, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5Stupid.
- jsmithers, on 01/14/2009, -0/+5TOTAL BS! As a pro mobile analyst myself (I get paid to know about this stuff), I'd say this really is total wishful thinking. But, lets indulge it for a second. For this to happen (Apple 40% smartphone market share) we'd need to see ALL the iPhone's flaws fixed. That means:
* software support for everything that's missing - MMS, Java, Flash, cut and paste, you name it.
* a MUCH cheaper handset - perhaps in the form of an iPhone Nano.
* Zero ties to carriers. I know in the US you guys know little else, but elsewhere people will laugh in your face for the sort of sh1t that US consumers put up with (without even realising it)
* A RADICALLY better camera. Yes, really. Over here in Europe we now expect 5MP with Xenon flash and a quality lens. As you get on most Nokias these days, even the cheap ones (e.g. 6220 Classic).
* A totally open appstore - no approvals by Apple. Users can install what they want, when they want, from where they want.
Put all this together and you'll have something that is better than Nokia (current world market smartphone, and phone, leader by a LOOOOONG way)
Otherwise, DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH. - osko2052, on 01/14/2009, -2/+6I could see that happening once they start selling their phone at Toys-R-Us where it belongs.
- Myztry, on 01/14/2009, -0/+4Wireless Internet will become ubiquitous. Cell towers will be re-purposed as Wireless Access Points.
Mobile Phones (let alone 0 IQ 'smart' phones) will cease to exist. Instead there will be Mobile (and Fixed) Internet Devices where the voice communication aspect is the least of the features.
Voice over networks is such a trivial capability. It's (relatively) low bandwidth. Error tolerant (due to humans innate ability for error correction). The whole phone concept will be as redundant as communicating via telegraph/morse/etc.
The only issue is time scale. The incumbents in mobile communications will change/go down kicking and screaming, but they will change/liquidate.
40% market share. They'll be lucky if their is a voice centric mobile market to even share! - SteveMax, on 01/14/2009, -0/+4Actually, most Nokia smartphones are more expensive (and MUCH better built) than the iPhone. See the old N95 or the E71. People in the US tend to associate Nokia with "cheapo prepaid phones", while in the rest of the world their smartphones are much more well-known.
- Rifleman223, on 01/14/2009, -0/+4This forecast seems to be more "wishful thinking" of an iPhone lover. I agree with the first post. *****!
- sneaker98, on 01/14/2009, -0/+414 percent of people will know that by 2013.
- ilgaz, on 01/14/2009, -1/+5Symbian, Linux, J2ME devices are real smart phones. A smart phone doesn't need to be policed by the vendor 24/7. They have very strict security policies, managing profiles, open standards such as MOAP and they care for user themselves.
Once you need to setup an "App store" and allow/reject apps (which runs as UID0 btw), your device can't be called smart phone. - sweetl, on 01/14/2009, -1/+5Im sorry, but its not ahead of the curve. Its also not a smart phone. Its also, therefore, not the greatest smartphone out there.
Lets just pick one vital feature for a smart phone. Multitasking.
Fail.
Theres lots of cases where the iphone excludes itself from the 'smartphone' bracket. - Topher06, on 01/14/2009, -0/+4I think the biggest mistake an "analyst" can make is to assume linear growth for n number of years and apply high school math to get the final figure.
- Elranzer, on 01/14/2009, -0/+4Maybe AT&T thinks they'll have 40% of the cellular market in the US by then. Yeah, right. Keep dreaming AT&T.
- Elranzer, on 01/14/2009, -0/+4It's the #1 selling phone in California, for sure. And California thinks that California is the world.
- markusfarkus, on 01/14/2009, -0/+3I'm skeptical about the 40% number. But I think you've hit it on the head. The wealth of available applications for the iPhone with tons more on the way will keep pushing the growth of this hardware and software platform.
- MrFurious2k, on 01/14/2009, -0/+3The market has been incredibly slow to react to Apple's improvements. Locking phones into carriers really stymied improvements for a while and it seems like it took the iPhone to really break up that logjam. Unfortunately, we're still seeing a bunch of iPhone clones that more or less suck. It's not that the iPhone is not without its flaws; the closed nature of the design and AT&T as the carrier has been frustrating. I'm just upset that 2 years after its introduction, we're still seeing phone designers copy the iPhone instead of really one-upping it.
I guess what this means is that if Apple continues to innovate while the others continue to copy, Apple will continue to grab market share. However, 40% sounds like an unrealistic number to me. - Elranzer, on 01/14/2009, -0/+3Great, that's all we need is one vendor (Apple), making only one model (iPhone), that only works on one carrier (AT&T) making up 40% of the market. This is the kind of closed monopolistic practice that would even make Microsoft blush.
If Apple really wants to see their phone market share grow, they'll have to make models for both GSM and CDMA and allow them to run on all four of the big carriers in the US (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint and T-Mobile). - SteveMax, on 01/14/2009, -0/+3Don't forget Symbian. Nokia is unifying the three interfaces, simplifying the OS calls and opening it's source; and putting it on all mid-to-high end phones. Symbian sales are still growing, even in a year when nothing really big happened to it (no, the 5800 isn't big; the N97 will be). Between Nokia, Samsung and SE, Symbian has a very bright future ahead.
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