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See the original image at physorg.com

German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures

physorg.com — A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA's estimates on the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth, a German newspaper reported Tuesday, after spotting the boffins had miscalculated.

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  • Cyre, on 04/16/2008, -23/+82What is a boffins?
    • Tr3v, on 04/16/2008, -4/+35Something from the lord of the rings?
      ... no that was baggins
      • cawpin, on 04/16/2008, -2/+32Excuse the comment abuse. This is a link from below that shows the boy is wrong.
        http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
        • itsgotyou, on 04/16/2008, -0/+6*WHEW* For a minute there I lost all confidence in our top scientists.
          • daRoach, on 04/16/2008, -0/+10But now I lost all confidence in 13 year olds.
        • cawpin, on 04/16/2008, -0/+9Don't get too confident. They did screw up a miles to kilometers conversion a few years ago, remember.
        • MWeather, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Thank god we won't be putting up more satellites between now and than.
      • OwdenBowden, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Exactly - he was totally wrong - thank the Lord for an inadament carbon rod.
    • ghm101, on 04/16/2008, -4/+28British slang for a scientist.
      • daRoach, on 04/16/2008, -0/+10That's a strange name, I would have called it a Chazwozzer.
    • acceleration, on 04/16/2008, -2/+27It's slang for an expert
    • ardnut, on 04/16/2008, -0/+16http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boffin
    • kreejo, on 04/16/2008, -1/+19Boffin basically means smart person, generally associated with scientists, professors, etc. It's used mostly in my country, England
      • cawpin, on 04/16/2008, -4/+9Why do the English need a slang word for everything?
        • breadfred, on 04/16/2008, -1/+10What do you mean, dude?
        • allywilson, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Correction: 'Why do the English need a slang word for A'hing?'
        • DeFex, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Why yall need a slang fo Aing bro
      • lovecss, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5Oh so it's YOUR country now is it?!
    • cardyology, on 04/16/2008, -9/+2"Boffins" is the collective term us Brits use for Digg users.
      • DangerMouse9, on 04/16/2008, -1/+0I think you meant the term "slag" because digg users are the opposite of "boffin"
        • atgmac, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1So you're unintelligent?
          • DangerMouse9, on 04/17/2008, -0/+0depends on who you're comparing me against and what the subject matter involved is.
    • sponeil, on 04/16/2008, -11/+7Wow, I can understand kids these days not knowing how to use a dictionary, but you should all know how to use Google by now. You can Google "boffin" and find the definition without even leaving the Google search page. ;-)
      • Fxer, on 04/16/2008, -3/+10There is no social value or generated discussion on a Google search.
        • abuelos84, on 04/16/2008, -0/+6but there is a definition of a word.
        • omnis, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1completely unlike the social value of digg's discussions?
    • Jaablaze, on 04/16/2008, -4/+1dugg for that question being the first comment lol.
    • hokie47, on 04/16/2008, -0/+13In April 2008 it was widely but incorrectly reported that 13 year-old Nico Marquardt from Potsdam, Germany, had recalculated the odds as part of a science competition, and found the risk had been underestimated. Taking into account the possibility of the asteroid colliding with one or more of the estimated 40,000 artificial satellites orbiting the earth, possibly causing a shift in its orbit, increases the probability of a collision with [5] earth on its next fly-by in 2036 to 1 in 450. NASA was reported as confirming these results with the ESA[6], yet they have since apparently denied these claims, and on April 15, 2008 it was reported Nico Marquardt's calculations were incorrect.[7]

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
    • Cattywampus, on 04/16/2008, -3/+1I figured "boggins" must have something to do with sex.
    • Nevotraz, on 04/16/2008, -1/+2It's a rebel spy!..

      ..oh, wait.
    • chillybeans27, on 04/16/2008, -0/+11I immediately thought "Many Bothans died to bring us this information."
      • m0tbaillie, on 04/16/2008, -1/+2Dugg very, very hard for sweet KOTOR reference.
        • doctornkul, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1If I remember correctly, it's actually what Mon Mothma said in Episode VI before the attack on the Death Star.
          • TobiasParker, on 04/16/2008, -2/+1Double Epic Fail.
            It was Mon Mothma, but in Episode IV
          • doctornkul, on 04/16/2008, -1/+4@TobiasParker
            No, it was in Episode VI.
            http://showcase.netins.net/web/ssinc/starwars/ROTJ ...
            "Many Bothans died to bring us this information. Admiral Ackbar, please."
            Triple Epic Fail for you?
          • TobiasParker, on 04/16/2008, -2/+2Indeed i have been out-starwars-nerded. My girlfriend just out-portal-nerded me like 3 days ago...i must be coming down with something.
    • Pyromite78, on 04/16/2008, -3/+1"Boffin" is the verb use of the adjective "Boff" which means to having a casual sexual encounter usually exaggerated or instigated by the introduction of alcohol based fluids or mood altering substances. Example: "Bro after a few beers I was so boffin the hell out of her last night".

      "Boff" can also be used to suggest rank in business setting.
      Example: Bababooey: "Hey boff, you think Ottie will come back from Amstadam alive Boff?"
  • xerexes1, on 04/16/2008, -1/+89bof·fin (bŏf'ĭn)
    n. Chiefly British Slang
    A scientist, especially one engaged in research.
    • Duositex, on 04/16/2008, -4/+21Am I the only one who absolutely detests this word? Or any slang used in a formal publication? I find that the word just sounds irritating.
      • towny, on 04/16/2008, -2/+5I assume you are a boffin, sir.
      • RussellDovey, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Well, someone's sensitive. One would have thought that a nickname implying that scientists actually do get some "boffin" once in a while would be welcomed.
        • ErikHarrison, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1I thought a Boffin was a coffin for a bitch? Anyone bring the shovel?
    • mikesbaker, on 04/16/2008, -1/+5When the ***** are the British going to learn to speak English?
    • pzwhite125, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2Who the ***** put Dr. Seuss in charge of slang over there?
    • wishninja, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1I wish my society regarded scientists highly enough to give slang to them. Nerd or geek is all they come up with here.
  • JaySanz, on 04/16/2008, -6/+95450...45,000 come on... what's 44,550 among friends?
    • trispear, on 04/16/2008, -27/+6450...45,000 is a difference of 2 orders of a magnitude. Even among friends.
      • jggr, on 04/16/2008, -18/+1Um, why are you getting dugg down? Do people really not get math that much?
        • Harabeck, on 04/16/2008, -0/+18woosh
        • alex7575, on 04/16/2008, -0/+22They sure don't get math, but they do get a joke...
        • jggr, on 04/16/2008, -8/+4But when you're talking odds... It's order of magnitude that's the relevant measurement.
          /Just thought it was a bad joke... Apologies for trying to being accurate... Should have known better.
    • freshpow, on 04/16/2008, -0/+0I might be going out on limb here but...Did you read that book Know It All! by Ed Zotti?
    • Godlike, on 04/17/2008, -0/+1THE REAL QUESTION IS... what are the odds that the scientists are flat out wrong and it's like 1:2?
  • Sludgehammer, on 04/16/2008, -2/+36Hmm... I'd like to see some confirmation for this before I start excepting it as fact. I have to wonder how he arrived at the 11/5000 chance that Apophis would hit a satellite. Still, if this is true, it's easy to understand how the scientists missed the chance of satellite collision, it's pretty rare that a large object gets close enough to earth to cross their orbits.
    • jacenat, on 04/16/2008, -2/+1"I have to wonder how he arrived at the 11/5000 chance that Apophis would hit a satellite."
      thats the point.
      maybe some assumption he took for his work?
    • nachowski, on 04/16/2008, -1/+19(FTA) (...) it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.
      So, for an asteroid that has actually only has a 1/450 chance of hitting earth, they've already figured out which ocean it will fall into?
      • cerealman, on 04/16/2008, -2/+6NASA is pretty damn smart.
      • CarStan, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Yes, because the speed of the asterióid will stay nearly close to the predictions, so they know exactly when it will happen. So you just have to look what time it will be on earth, and you can see that the Atlantic is facing the direction of the asteroid. (Asuming it will hit straight and not takeing some rounds across orbit, in wich case it would truly be unpredictable
        • Yazilliclick, on 04/16/2008, -1/+4That doesn't make much sense really. If we're bassing this vastly increased chance of hitting earth on a collision with a satellite capable of shifting it's direction then it's speed should be affected to a degree also. And considering the amount of time and distance travelled we're talking of for it's return, that's certainly going to have a large effect on which part of the earth it's facing at the time.

          Really though the entire thing is largely guess work because if you're going to start considering collisions with satellites the main cause to increase chance of hitting earth than it becomes next to impossible to take in to account the angle of that collision, for all we can be certain it could be directed onto a course that lessens it's chance of hitting earth.
          • MWeather, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5I doubt a 200 billion ton ball of iron will be slowed down enough to miss earth if it hits a satellite.
      • Dl1cool, on 04/16/2008, -1/+2Fewww Atlantic, I'm glad I live on the west coast. Never did like the east coast anyways, lol.
      • shockeriv, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Actually there is a Path of risk map on the wikipedia article. The middle of the path is over the Pacific though it does span from western Russia to just off the west coast of Africa.
    • Swipecat, on 04/16/2008, -0/+21Yep, it's not fact at all. See this article which debunks it:
      http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
      • Zeigy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Heh heh. I bet that kid is feeling pretty stupid now!
        • jggr, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4He may not have corrected NASA, but he was good enough to fool everyone else.
          Well the media anyway... So maybe that's not such a big deal. :P
        • RussellDovey, on 04/16/2008, -1/+2It was a nice try. The kid had the confidence to challenge authoritative predictions based on his own calculations; hopefully he pursues science further in his career.
      • Kakemonster, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Well, I'm glad someone debunked total annihilation of the planet :D
    • Harabeck, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2There is very very little chance of it striking a sattellite. People have a hard time imagining the scales were talking about here, even just in the orbits of those sattellites, there is a huge amount of empty space.
    • spamly, on 04/16/2008, -0/+6"excepting"?
    • flashcat7777, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Perhaps I'm stupid, but if the chance of this asteroid hitting the satellite increases, can't we just do something to the satellite to make it stop/slow down/follow a different path/etc.?
  • Ghostalker, on 04/16/2008, -33/+27This bodes well for NASA, 13yr olds correcting their math. I'll bet ya their funding gets cut again next year.
  • Ithaxa, on 04/16/2008, -21/+4I cant wait till SELENE corrects NASA's statement that they landed on the moon.
    • DoscoJones, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2I can't wait until you losers are proven wrong.
  • daeus, on 04/16/2008, -27/+6I, for one, welcome our new alien overlords.
  • nickcozy, on 04/16/2008, -51/+9European Space agency > ***** up propaganda spreading NASA.
    Maybe this kid is another great scientist/astronomer from europe in the making.DIGG ME UP.
    • Pixelante, on 04/16/2008, -10/+9So, where's the european man on the Moon? Or the european robot on Mars? And why do european astronauts have to hitch rides from the US or Russia?
    • Logicexe, on 04/16/2008, -4/+13What propaganda is NASA spreading? Oh wait, you must either be a moon landing conspiracy theorist of a global warming warming denier. lolz
      • kitkatsavvy, on 04/16/2008, -6/+2yep im one of the zillions of people who think that global warming is short term crap! why cant they look at millions of years instead of a measley 150 years for? idiots
        • Logicexe, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4Why should I care about the opinions of "zillions" of people who have no training in science over the people who do have training in science? You wouldn't get medical advice from your bus driver or your mechanic, you wouldn't ask the grocery store cashier to perform your root canal, right?

          Why do the large majority of the people who are actually trained in the sciences agree that climate change is a problem and that we're a significant cause? If a million people came up to you and told you you didn't have cancer and 1 doctor said "yes you do, look at these test results" who would you believe?
          • Monk22, on 04/16/2008, -4/+1"Why do the large majority of the people who are actually trained in the sciences agree that climate change is a problem and that we're a significant cause?"

            they dont.
          • Logicexe, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2Monk22, that's just factually incorrect. The majority of the scientific community are in agreement about climate change. They don't all agree on the details, but they all agree with the consensus that climate change is real and we're a significant cause.
          • Monk22, on 04/17/2008, -0/+1no they dont.
          • Logicexe, on 04/20/2008, -1/+1OK no one is forcing you to take my word. Look around a little bit. Visit some websites, in fact I'll give you a head start

            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_consen ...

            If digg cuts off the link just go into wikipedia and search "global warming consensus."
          • Monk22, on 04/24/2008, -0/+1wiki is like quoting your friend. it means nothing.
    • cerealman, on 04/16/2008, -0/+23The kid is wrong.
      http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
      • didiman, on 04/16/2008, -0/+6Good find: "[The asteroid will pass] within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region."
        • Godlike, on 04/17/2008, -0/+1Is there a graphic of how far up the satellites are in relation to the size of the earth, to give us perspective of how close a call this is? I check my comments.
    • x252, on 04/16/2008, -1/+6lol, the European space agency.


      I didn't even know you guys went to space.


      But seriously, NASA is probably the single greatest space exploration organization on the planet. Just cause some body FUBAR'd the numbers doesn't mean their a bunch of idiots.
  • Steinr, on 04/16/2008, -4/+9I hope we are digging and making those impact shelter.
    • Elohir, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4I hope you make them watertight enough to withstand a huge tsunami, and you're going to need a HELL of a lot of food considering it'd darken the planet indefinitely.
  • hadak, on 04/16/2008, -6/+24So, this is the way the world ends.
    • loquax, on 04/16/2008, -2/+35Not with a bang, not with a whimper, but with a misplaced decimal.
      • Hofele, on 04/16/2008, -1/+3Ok! Ok! I must have, I must have put a decimal point in the wrong place
        or something. *****. I always do that. I always mess up some mundane
        detail.
        • m0tbaillie, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Dugg for hot Office Space reference.
    • raynar, on 04/16/2008, -1/+9i dont wanna close my eyes....
      • j3one, on 04/16/2008, -3/+3I dont want to fall asleep
        Cause Id miss you baby
        And I dont want to miss a thing
        Cause even when I dream of you
        The sweetest dream will never do
        Id still miss you baby
        And I dont want to miss a thing
        • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4The fall of Aerosmith. Once i heard that song and Jaded, i knew it was ***** OVER for them.
      • pgouy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Damn you! Coffee all over my screen!
    • centran, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1The world would have ended much sooner; In 2012.
      The entire mantle of the Earth will rotate suddenly... or some other such thing. I don't know. The only people that knew where the Mayans and they aren't around so it shows how smart they where. Unless.... you don't think they built a spaceship do you? Oh crap! Everyone panic! We are screwed!
      • hadak, on 04/18/2008, -0/+1The sun is actually a couple of centuries overdue for a polar axis flip - which would produce a gamma ray burst; enough to wipe out whatever can see the sun.
  • zaptoman, on 04/16/2008, -25/+4Well, we knew it'd happen sooner or later. I've been saying it for years - Nasa's a waste of money. Let the private industries do the space thing, they do a better job anyway.
    • jacenat, on 04/16/2008, -0/+11"Let the private industries do the space thing, they do a better job anyway."
      HEAVENS NO!
      you DO know how much private companies care for fundamental research and human life ... do you?
    • Logicexe, on 04/16/2008, -0/+6Yeah it was fun watching all those private industries land men on the moon, build space shuttles, send probes out of our solar system (Voyager 1 & 2), send landers and probes to other planets and moons, study the stars with Spitzer, Hubble and Chandra, conduct all the necessary research and testing essential to the development of instant global communication & GPS. NASA does this for a paltry several billion dollars a years (which isn't very much compared to most other government agencies).

      In light of all that NASA has accomplished, I'd say they're entitled to a few mistakes here and there.
      • PhantomRogue, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Well... all things considered, NASA's budget for Voyager 1, 2... All of the Apollo missions and whatnot were VASTLY superior to anything any private company can come close to matching.
        That said, I still think NASA needs more funding. The possibility of being take out by an asteroid would lend itself to better understanding of the Space the Earth is in.
        • Logicexe, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3Yeah their budget is much larger, and they don't have to worry about pleasing their ravenous share holders with quarterly dividends. That's why they're able to continue to do what they do. I'm in complete agreement with you.
        • Godlike, on 04/17/2008, -0/+1We may never fully map the local cluster.
    • raynar, on 04/16/2008, -2/+5"Well, we knew it'd happen sooner or later. I've been saying it for years"
      Wow. You're smart. Saying that "someday, an asteroid will hit"....hell, the sun shines on a dogs ass twice a day...
      • homeagain1, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Err, I think you missed that last part of his sentence. He said "I've been saying it for years - Nasa's a waste of money."
    • Navicerts, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2OK, but how is space travel profitable? Make it profitable and private companies will hop on board in no time - no reason to ditch NASA just yet.
      • m0tbaillie, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1"If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036."

        Don't worry, it will become a lot more profitable in 2035.
  • spyd3rweb, on 04/16/2008, -6/+27If an asteroid was going impact earth, would they tell you?
    • Zeigy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+8Someone would leak the revelation and post it on YouTube.
    • MWeather, on 04/16/2008, -0/+9By they, I assume you mean the multitude of observatories around the world that were used to verify the results? Yeah, I can see a few thousand people keeping a secret that big.

      Makes as much sense as faking the moon landing.
    • russ3, on 04/16/2008, -1/+4No they would tell you its a 1 in 450 chance. Dont you feel better now?
    • Brainmodder, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Yes they would, as politicians would use the issue to make themselves look better by funding a mission to deflect it.

  • DavidtheDuke, on 04/16/2008, -2/+30Apophis is such a scary, foreboding name.
  • barroni, on 04/16/2008, -8/+28Maths errors at NASA is nothing new they lost Mars orbiter in 1999 because one engineering team used metric units while another used English units for a key spacecraft operation
    • jacenat, on 04/16/2008, -10/+5tbh, this sounds like an urban legend ...
    • trispear, on 04/16/2008, -6/+15Yeah. But WTF is anybody doing using English units in engineering. Metric ftw. (Plus the whole powers of ten thing is so much better than the English systems which love to throw a new arbitrary number whereever they can. Lets see: 12 inches to a foot. 3 feet to a yard. 1760 yards to a mile. Yeah, makes sense. So much better than 1000 millimeters (or 100 centimeters) to a meter. 1000 meters to a kilometer.) End sarcasm.
      • jamesdew, on 04/16/2008, -1/+7um britain has used the metric system for quite some time now. Although people still use feet and inches in general conversation i've never seen anyone use them in engineering.
        The US are still using imperial measurements.
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metric_system
        • trispear, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2I never said Britain didn't use metric, but it's called the English system for a reason:
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_unit
        • jamesdew, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1from wikipedia

          "English unit is the American name for a unit in one of a number of systems of units of measuremen"

          Ah that explains all the unit misconceptions Americans seem to have for our unit system
    • coolbru, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3My Dad worked on Concorde in the late 60s. It was the first project done by BAC using metric units. That led to some good *****-ups.
    • londonflare, on 04/16/2008, -0/+6I never knew they were called 'English Units', here in England we were always told they were 'Imperial Units', damn complicated things.
      • Fxer, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2English units and Imperial units are different. See Wikipedia. In engineering classes you have to learn both, and since they're very similar sometimes it gets confusing, such as using Slugs and Pound-mass for mass.
      • Zeigy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4Well they were called Imperial units back when England ruled the world. Oh yeah, and we're rewriting the English language too.
    • Zeigy, on 04/16/2008, -7/+1Same people who voted for Bush.
      • alpha19, on 04/16/2008, -1/+3People like you are the reason why the US isn't ranked at the top of educated countries of the world.
  • Jeconais, on 04/16/2008, -3/+112Buried as inaccurate. Simple fact checking is no longer a barrier to journalism. NASA have not agreed their sums are wrong. - http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/
    • Braik, on 04/16/2008, -0/+10Taken from that site,

      "The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's gravity field.

      This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.

      Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13). "

      At least we know that if the world IS going to end it'll end on Friday the 13th
    • thscientist1, on 04/16/2008, -1/+4look at when the page was last updated though
  • goerg, on 04/16/2008, -8/+10did anyone notice that the asteroid is named "apophis"?
    there must be a stargate fan within the nasa...

    anyway, it could impact at a friday 13th
    • Zeigy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Hmmm, I wonder if they factored the Friday 13th impact and Apophis name into their calculations.
    • LeePeyton, on 04/16/2008, -0/+0WOW now that we have brought that up some superstitious geek a NASA is screaming "*****!".
    • ravage86, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5But it was Anubis who sent the asteroid, not Apophis.
  • Aberen, on 04/16/2008, -17/+37Hah, once he hit's 20 he should apply for a job at NASA.
    Only thing to put in the resumé

    "Proved you wrong in 2008"
  • Unskillful, on 04/16/2008, -6/+31HOW the hell are more people paying attention to the boy, and not the fact that the odds of this happening are 1/450...
    • Ihatepolitics, on 04/16/2008, -0/+18don't worry Bruce Willis will save us.
    • Yazilliclick, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4Because it's little more than guess work
    • jamesdew, on 04/16/2008, -0/+7meh its 18 years away. Scientists will have invented a way to make asteroids go away somehow by then.
      • Zeigy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+9Point the HUGE HARDON Collider into the asteroid path and make a black hole.
      • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Couldn't the countries come together and send all of the worlds nukes out to meet it in space and bust it into pieces that'd burn up in the atmosphere?
    • Fxer, on 04/16/2008, -2/+4There's nothing we as a people can do about it. Just go with the flow.
    • MadHarvey, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1This is why Giraffes and treadmills were invented
    • griz, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2Because no one, especially politicians care what happens beyond the 4 years of their term.
    • homah, on 04/16/2008, -1/+3Because it'll burn up in our atmosphere and whatever's left will be no bigger than a chihuahua's head.

      (If I'm wrong, may we all be horribly crushed from above somehow.)
  • greydonkey, on 04/16/2008, -1/+125The article is inaccurate see:
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
    • bosssmiley, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5Beat me to it. Dugg
    • maddikp, on 04/16/2008, -11/+2American science education still sucks
      • raynar, on 04/16/2008, -2/+7but we can make bombs to blow you away. we win.
      • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -1/+6Why do people insist on making an anti-American statement every chance they get? It just makes you look ridiculous. If America sucks, then why is it worth you talking about it?
        • raynar, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3everyone hates america until they're about to be taken over...
          • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1Who the ***** has the energy to actively hate anything? That ***** is exhausting.
        • XBSHX, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3"***** you America!", Hilter Jr. starts attacking, "Heeeeeelp! Save us America!".
          • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Now that hating America makes you "cool", there is no way back.
      • maddikp, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1"Why do people insist on making an anti-American statement every chance they get?"- Did you check my profile? I witnessed it first hand growing up.

        I tried finding the actual survey results which were quite amazing but gave up but here are the results and comparisons from other country's. Sorry this is the best I can do for the amount of time I want to spend replying:
        http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind04/

        For a country with our wealth it's sad we don't invest more in our children's education. Get off the ethnocentric wagon and realize we should be the leader... sorry, still sucks.
        • argaen21, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2Nasa has some of the smartest and brightest people from all over the country and world. We may suck big time at producing large numbers of engineers or scientists now but that doesn't reflect the quality of people working at NASA.
          • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1He heard that about as well as Lloyd Christmas heard Harry Dunne say "YOU CAN'T TRIPLE-STAMP A DOUBLE STAMP!"
    • orblivion, on 04/16/2008, -1/+2 > [The asteroid will pass] within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites.
      HOLY CRAP
      • credence, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Glad I'm not the only one to think that. Apparently it won't be very noticable, though. To everything but quality telescopes, it'll just be a point of light, like a star. (according to wikipedia)
        • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3It'd be cooler if it passed but appeared gigantic and everyone watched it in awe while they waited for their stomachs to come back from their asses.
          • orblivion, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2I wonder if something so big as to appear visible to the naked eye like that would affect the ocean tides.
  • Rebeca, on 04/16/2008, -3/+2Babelfish translation of the bilde.de article with a picture of the kid: http://snipurl.com/24lov
    • TwiStEr55, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Bild, worst source ever!!!! Huge German tabloid which make stuff up, and harasses people!!!
  • Ihatepolitics, on 04/16/2008, -10/+1 A 13-year-old German schoolboy saved planet earth from armageddon! Uh oh. It looks like somebody's getting fired.

    • Harrison88, on 04/16/2008, -3/+3How did he save the earth? He just told us that we better start building a deep, deep bunker to live in and hope that the 0.889% chance of the asteroid hitting doesn't occur.
  • TripcodeMel, on 04/16/2008, -1/+31Many boffins died to bring us that information. Ungrateful bastard.
  • powatom, on 04/16/2008, -9/+4Bloody Germans - first we have WW1, then WW2, and now THIS >:(
    • psg188, on 04/16/2008, -2/+6World War I was not Germany's fault you ignorant moron. They fought a defensive a war, like everyone else. Russia mobilized to take over south eastern Europe, and with their alliance with France it was only a matter of time before Germany was caught in a two front war. They tried to avoid it by taking one at a time, it was a war of circumstances, not aggression.

      As for World War Two, the Nazis were only allowed to take over because of the depression caused by the horrible Versailles treaty, quit blaming the German people for that. It's the same principle as the Milgram experiment. Try looking it up, it's human nature, not a factor of the Germans. Go screw yourself.
      • talonstriker, on 04/16/2008, -1/+6I agree that WWI was a defensive war for Germans, but it had nothing to do with Russia starting it. Russia was merely providing the Serbs protection from the Austrians. The Austrians were the ones of the offensive, and Germany got into it simply they were tied by an allliance.
        • psg188, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1The Russians mobilizing their army is what prompted Germany to attack France, it had everything to do with Russia.
          • talonstriker, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1Russians mobilized because the Austrians were beating the snot out of the Serbs. Well the Serbs brought it on, so its either Austria's (an foreign force in serbia) or Serbian rebels' fault.
    • ryleyleckie, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1you, my friend, are a douche
    • powatom, on 04/17/2008, -0/+1Lighten up you tools, it's a ***** joke.
  • bosssmiley, on 04/16/2008, -0/+40El Reg calls "*****!" on this:

    "It would appear that the intial article in the Potsdamer Neueste Nachrichten, which says that NASA and the ESA endorsed Nico Marquardt's calculations, was incorrect. The story was picked up by German tabloids and the AFP news wire, and is now all over the internet."

    El Reg article: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
  • tossayo, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5It totally makes sense now why NTP stops the clock at 2036!
  • JMeister, on 04/16/2008, -11/+1Always check your work. QA bods at NASA with red faces methinks!
  • LeeSoong, on 04/16/2008, -10/+7Great,

    now can that school boy convince the USA to give up the feet/pounds/and inches nonsense?
    • DoscoJones, on 04/16/2008, -1/+3Every engineering company I've ever worked for in the US uses metric units. It's the general public that refuses to use it.
    • casuallyevil, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2Opposite experience... every company I've worked for in the US uses imperial. In fact, I'm calculating something right now and using imperial. Building codes are in inches and feet, steel is sold by foot and has its strength classified by KSI, pipes are all sold in inch-diameters and foot-lengths, pumps are spec'd by horsepower, tanks are spec'd by gallons, load specified in tons (or kips), moments are in pound-feet or kip-feet, mass is in slugs or lbm, thermal coefficients are for degrees F. I suppose it depends on your industry?
      • DoscoJones, on 04/18/2008, -0/+2I suppose it does. I work in high tech (aerospace, semiconductors, biopharmacology) and everything I see is all metric. We do have some people who still think in mils for mechanical design issues, but they always translate to metric for formal purposes. In part it is because our business in global, and metric is the defacto standard for the planet.

  • LeeSoong, on 04/16/2008, -8/+3
    "If the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit earth on its next orbit in 2036."


    It would spell the end of life on planet Earth indefinitely,
    but Americans would just complain about Dish-TV being knocked out,
    because they can't watch 'Dancing With The Stars'...
    • Fxer, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5The end of human life is not the end of life on Earth. Asteroids have impacted earth in the past and life has survived. And even an end to human life is improbable, since we know what's coming, an advantage early life didn't have.
  • EetFuk, on 04/16/2008, -9/+0I hope in future NASA will send their calculations to elementary school for check-up beforehand
    • Reedan, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1I get it! Because NASA sucks right? *high five
  • sdcarter, on 04/16/2008, -8/+2Two words: Deep Impact
    • slapded, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1i hope it doesnt suck like the movie
      • Tripper44, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1haha I'll see you on the beach when the big wave comes, we can cry in each others arms ;) (in a non-gay way or course)
      • Fxer, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2I liked that movie. It showed a realistic panorama of Earth in the event of such a catastrophe.
  • sYx66, on 04/16/2008, -9/+2The boy is still correct. Even though he probably treated most satellites with equal probability there is still a chance that a satellite will be hit. Thus, the figure is probably somewhere near Nasa's. It's great that he caused Nasa to recalculate.

    BTW, it's also neat to note that collision with satellite increases the chances of the asteroid hitting Earth, because it's orbit will change and the chances are higher on the next pass (not the immediate) that it will hit.
    • cerealman, on 04/16/2008, -0/+5No, he's not.
      http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
    • HappyScrappy, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3If the chances of it hitting Earth are 1 in 45,000, the chances of it hitting one of Earth's satellites (including the moon) is smaller, because the sum total of all the cross-sectional area of all of Earth's satellites is FAR less than the cross section of Earth. So add that to the cross-sectional area of Earth and it can't even than double the chances.

      Any random collision with a satellite most certainly decreases the chance it'll hit Earth next time. Yes, it will change the orbit. But given how statistics work, the chances it will "improve" the trajectory (meaning making it more likely to hit Earth next time) are astronomical. Why would someone assume that a random input would increase the amount of order in a system?

      A random collision will change the trajectory randomly, and since the VAST majority of a set of random trajectories don't hit Earth, it will almost certainly DECREASE the chance it'll hit Earth next time.
  • hokie47, on 04/16/2008, -6/+4A 320 metres of iron ***** will blast apart every single one of our small satellites without slowing down much. They make it sound like it will bounce off one of our satellites and hit us.
    • ncairns, on 04/16/2008, -1/+4Between 2029 and 2036 Apophis will cover roughly 6,627,096,000 kilometers.

      A change of a fraction of a millimeter across that distance could change its trajectory enough to cause an impact in 2036.
    • Wizang, on 04/16/2008, -0/+3It's also important to consider that despite its relative low mass in comparison to the asteroid, the satellite does have significant kinetic energy as they travel at a few thousand meters per second. Remember its mass times velocity squared! However... it is still a small KE compared to the asteroid, that is where ncairns comment plays in.
      • oneoverzero, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2err... half mass times velocity squared...
        • Wizang, on 04/17/2008, -0/+0I'm aware... I wasn't quoting the entire equation, I was simply pointing out that the velocity was biggest shareholder... the 1/2 while necessary doesn't really impact the order of magnitude... which is really all that matters in physics haha.
      • Christ0s, on 04/17/2008, -0/+1the energy isn't important here its the momentum that matter in collisions
  • dwalker, on 04/16/2008, -12/+2Hey! Europe One Nil up on USA. NASA should get its calculations done here in Europe in future.
    And whats a boffin? Derrrrr! Oh, yes, they don't use that word in crappy computer games... and that's the only way kids are learning to read nowadays.
    • strictnein, on 04/16/2008, -0/+4How much of an idiot do you feel now that you know the kid was wrong?
  • baylat, on 04/16/2008, -0/+31uhm guys, this article is inaccurate.
    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german ...
    stop bashing NASA
  • franklymister, on 04/16/2008, -1/+22Thanks to the commenters who pointed out that this article is not, in fact, correct. Buried as inaccurate.
  • hokie47, on 04/16/2008, -7/+3Will Bush save us?
    • o0joshua0o, on 04/16/2008, -1/+2Why would he? He's consistently done the opposite.
  • mal1964, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1I'll bet the same odds saying a sports book in Vegas has it on the board already
  • kednorthc, on 04/16/2008, -2/+31 in 450? No sweat. By 2029 or 2036, I'm sure we'll have, er, giant space lasers. And maybe jet packs. Jet packs will be cool.
    • grizzlybrice, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1LIke how we are supposed to have the flying car now?
  • MasterMO, on 04/16/2008, -3/+7umm, isn't the story obviously fake? Tell me how a 200 BILLION tonne asteroid can have it's trajectory changed by any significant amount be hitting a satellite probably weighing in less than 1 tonne..
    • thrallie, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1Don't digg him down. They were talking awhile about how we can change the trajectory of apophis, and they said it would take the power of two huge rockets to move it a small amount, so it changes directions. I dont think a small satellite would do *****.
      • aladrin, on 04/16/2008, -0/+2With the kind of distances involved it doesn't take much to make a major change later.
    • dynelol, on 04/16/2008, -1/+1I just figured it's possible because it's astrophysics instead of earth's physics.
  • prleet, on 04/16/2008, -6/+4I, for one, welcome our new asteroid overlord Aphophis.
  • nobhdy, on 04/16/2008, -1/+5I've already seen these facts from NASA. The kid didn't tell them anything they didn't already know.
  • R2DeeDoo, on 04/16/2008, -8/+1Cut NASA subsidies and dusbags will be the only ones working there.
  • ichibanstunna, on 04/16/2008, -2/+0Sounds like David Kim.
  • Ascus, on 04/16/2008, -5/+3The boy didn't have political pressure to understate the risks.
  • benthose, on 04/16/2008, -13/+1NASA: I'm a PC.
    Kid: I'm a Mac.
    NASA: Its Mac's fault!! Its not my fault!!
  • AxelDunor, on 04/16/2008, -12/+2If a 13 year old kid is able to find mistakes in NASA prediction, then one can wonder if those very obvious mistakes are really unvolontary.
  • Lapper, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1I read about this in Death By Black Hole by Neil Tyson. If the asteroid goes through the special gravity "gateway", it will collide with the earth on its next trip around.
  • blitzkriegpunk, on 04/16/2008, -0/+7Apophis? QUICK, someone call SG-1!
    • LoreleileeLong, on 04/16/2008, -0/+1Bugger, you totally beat me to the punch. I can't wait to meet Daniel Jackson. *starts countdown to 2036*
  • silfiriel, on 04/16/2008, -0/+10check wikipedia about apophis asteroid, you'll see that the final decision of NASA is that the calculations of the student are INCORRECT. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
    • eskizo, on 04/16/2008, -3/+1right ... they made the media and everything to shut about the truth, so nobody panics before they find a solution

      ...

      somebody call bruce willis!!!
    • jonnasi, on 04/16/2008, -3/+1I´ll trust a media that even I can go in an change history, yeah right.
  • d3lirium, on 04/16/2008, -0/+0First of all, this is inaccurate. Second off all...an asteroid coming close enough for it to hit a satellite orbiting Earth? The pull of Earth would be enough to alter its course at that distance. Thirdly, this kid would have to be a genius to figure out something like that, taking into account everything else it passes on its return trip.
    • DigitalQuartz, on 04/16/2008, -0/+0At ANY distance, the pull of the earth is enough to alter its course. Just because something gets close, doesn't mean it will hit us. Satellites are very close, but somehow avoid colliding with the Earth. The same is true of the Moon.
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