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538 Comments
- cavedog0, on 09/10/2008, -31/+365I honestly don't know one person who is going to vote McCain. And I live in Arizona.
- MommaKatz, on 09/10/2008, -28/+272Ya know, it's about time they got caught. Could we please make this hit front page? Digg it up and share out loud folks!
- Nosferotu, on 09/10/2008, -15/+140I have some background in survey methodology and sampling, and I've read a bit on this topic specifically. As much as I want to believe it, I sincerely doubt they're intentionally oversampling Republicans and Independents. I think it's more likely that there's been a shift in the electorate toward more people calling themselves Republicans. These are organizations that do nothing but polling, and if ALL of the polls lately are finding that trend, chances are it's in the public and not just fudging the data.
But again, I'm an Obama supporter, and I hope to god this article is right and that McCain hasn't taken the lead. Frankly, if McCain wins, it will be the death stroke to my faith in the American public, or the future of America. - redscofield, on 09/10/2008, -10/+106now why would they do that? hmmm? i mean, these are our trustworthy fact checkers... the Fourth Estate... it's not like their corporate owners have a vested interest in this election and/or controlling the public's perception... right?
- YoYoYoImcool, on 09/10/2008, -33/+115Yay for the intelligent people. Bring down the Creatinist idiots who do not believe in overwhelming truth.
- Catspaw, on 09/10/2008, -10/+85More evidence the mainstream media heads have an agenda and think they run and control the political show - and don't give a damn about the public they are supposed to be serving.
Orwell Rolls in His Grave
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=1925114769 ... - Indyanna, on 09/10/2008, -39/+93Obviously, you need to get out more.
- GRANDPAMUNSTER, on 06/11/2009, -4/+53There is no liberal or conservative mainstream news, only corporate. The corporate media wants the most corporate candidate.
- edmondburke, on 09/10/2008, -22/+70ITS THAT - OR AMERICA HAS GONE MAD AFTER 8 YEARS OF BUSH, AND WANT TO WALLOW IN THE MESS.
- truck87bp, on 09/10/2008, -2/+48TV is CORRUPT !
The first thing I want fixed before the next election is not the economy but Voting Reform. The 2 party system isn't good enough for the United States of America and voting sucks here if you hadn't noticed. - Pssdoff, on 09/10/2008, -1/+44Aren't some of these polls used as 'eligibility requirements' to be included in debates?
- Minarchian, on 09/10/2008, -37/+73Well I'll be damned
KOS and Huff are only now figuring out that the polls are rigged?
Paul Supporters have been saying this all along. But only now it's legit?
Or are they screaming about it now because it's happening to one of *their* candidates? - scottmc, on 09/10/2008, -3/+38For those keeping score at home, here's a site that updates the state by state totals to predict the electrol vote:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ - insomniac8400, on 09/10/2008, -11/+46Not everyone has a personal plane to get around with.
- zip000, on 09/10/2008, -10/+44A college friend of my wife suddenly decided to vote for McCain - we were all appalled. When asked why, she started quoting all of the ridiculous propaganda against Obama that has been disproved again and again by all sorts of media outlets.
"But-but he's a Muslim"...OMFG. - inactive, on 09/10/2008, -3/+36I don't care about polls. I care about what happens on election day.
- inactive, on 09/10/2008, -2/+35Yeah, all that "checking her record" and "discussing her positions on the issues" is just ***** RUDE. Sexist, even.
- Echota, on 01/05/2009, -2/+31Like I've said,don't mind the polls!
- Nosferotu, on 09/10/2008, -1/+30I know man, I read it. But that's ONE political scientist. That's another part of knowing a lot about methodology and research - you don't take a single person's opinion. What authority does Alan Abramowitz speak with (just being a 'political scientist' doesn't prove he's trustworthy)? And how many 'political scientists' out there are willing to say just the opposite for their own reasons? I have a psychology degree, so I could call myself a 'psychologist' and say something about how schizophrenics have demons living in their heads. I even work for a University, so I could tack that on as well to give myself some credence. But this is a Huffington Post article, so chances are they searched specifically for someone who was going to support the 'this is a conspiracy' point of view.
You know what I mean?
I say again, I hope to god the article is right, I want Obama to win in a landslide. I'm just saying... we still have to be reasonable and not just believe what we want to believe without considering all the facts. - BotchaMcCoola, on 09/10/2008, -3/+31The media types want it to appear to be an even race. That will keep you into it more and rasie their advertising income.
- AshleyHuber, on 09/10/2008, -5/+28Unfortunately, the plural of "anecdote" is not "data."
I know tons of people who are voting for McCain, and I'm in Maryland. It just depends on what circles you run in and who you associate with.
Oh, and @PleaseJustDie... most of the people I know who are voting for Obama have well-paying jobs and decent healthcare. But they're not so self-centered and self-involved that they think other people (even immigrants!) don't deserve those same things as well. Really now. - Waiting2awake, on 09/10/2008, -0/+22We will find out in November I guess.
BTW - caps lock is evil. - DoctorFaust, on 09/10/2008, -10/+32Why do you hate freedom?
- FredFredrickson, on 09/10/2008, -1/+21Hey, I say let 'em. If Obama supporters don't believe he's got the race in the bag, more of them will get out and vote.
- RG13, on 09/10/2008, -6/+25Weird. I know a bunch of people who are voting for McCain (unfortunately). And I live in Massachusetts.
- 5celery, on 09/10/2008, -5/+24Did you say creatinist on purpose? Not saying it doesn't fit - made up word or no, there does seem to be an enduring belief in cretinism in the GOP.
- regicide, on 09/10/2008, -3/+22No wonder the polls always show this as a "tight race" hopefully the election is monitored closely.... I think this election is going to shatter records with its voter turnout. I have never seen so many people interested in politics before.
- Oddish, on 09/10/2008, -6/+25Reading Digg the last few months has made me feel much better about my country. The proud US of A is now so royally ***** up in so many ways, it has long since stopped being funny.
My impression though, is that most diggers are more intelligent and capable than the portion of Americans who've managed to thoroughly derail the country. I just hope you get off your asses when it's time to vote. - whorelock, on 09/10/2008, -7/+26I hate the corporate media and for profit pollsters.
- Jwoey, on 09/10/2008, -2/+20@Cool
You're telling me that people didn't think he was a Muslim before Sunday? I think it all started when Fox News said he attended a Madrasa and was raised as a Muslim. - MoneyTutor, on 09/10/2008, -18/+36I guess it feels better to know that the race is close rather than to think that McCain is 10 points down.
- laserdog, on 09/10/2008, -0/+18A frightening number of people are honestly motivated to "vote for the winner".
- anxcaptain, on 09/10/2008, -10/+27I knew there was some BS going on when I would wake up in the morning and I would hear... "Obama is loosing ground to MCain... "
yea right FOX news... lol u guys are funny - Waiting2awake, on 09/10/2008, -6/+23Who cares why they have now seen it - lets be glad that more and more people are seeing it.
- Wilarseny, on 09/10/2008, -0/+17another good one: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
more nuanced, goes back to historical trends and fundraises, a bit more complex algorithm for weighting the pollsters. I used to watch electoral-vote before I came upon this site. - Echota, on 01/05/2009, -7/+234 more years of Bush ....my friend? blink,blink...
- MorganMghee, on 09/10/2008, -0/+16Exactly!
- lostsymphonies1, on 09/10/2008, -9/+25The only people I have seen/heard of that are voting for McCain in the Seattle, are the super-rich. Even then its still only a few percent of the super rich.
- inactive, on 09/10/2008, -5/+21I understand the Daily Kos is pretty far left, but you and I have to agree that the media is pushing a narrative for this race and Palin just gave them a little direction. Not just b/c I'm voting for him, but from the reputation the Republican party has right now I think Obama is going to win this election. But wouldn't it be more captivating to report a story where it absolutely looks like he is going to lose before he comes back in the end to win. Much more interesting story than: Republican party is a mess, Dems are going to win congress again, and with that the presidency. The current state of the race is much more interesting from a storytellers point of view.
- neognostic, on 09/10/2008, -7/+23FTA - Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz is highly skeptical of the new Gallup, USA Today and CBS polls. About the latter, which showed a statistically insignificant two point lead for McCain, Abramowitz said: "One reason for the dramatic difference between the two recent CBS polls is that the two samples differed fairly dramatically in terms of partisan composition. The first sample was 35.2% Democratic, 26.2 percent Republicans, and 38.6 percent independent. The second sample was 34.9% Democratic, 31.1% Republican, and 34.0% independent. That's a change from a 9 point Democratic advantage to a 3.8 point Democratic advantage. That alone would probably explain about half of the difference in candidate preferences between the two [CBS] polls."
- PleaseJustDie, on 09/10/2008, -3/+18You know its funny, if you read the article Democrats polled were still a higher percentage, instead of being 8% more democrats polled than republicans its only 3% more democrats polled than republicans.
So yeah that totally explains why McCain was up somewhere around 8% in the polls over Obama.
Its just more likely that with small sample sizes they use, which is around 1000 that this kind of fluctuation can occur and its more likely that the questions might be worded different to achieve a different result. I worked with a guy who used to do statistical analysis of polls and he told me that the pollsters could make the numbers show anything they want just by how the questions are worded. If I asked you "Do you think its ok to kill babies?" You'd say no, but if I said "Are you pro-choice" you might say yes or "Do you think abortion is acceptable in the event to save a mother's life?" even though the questions are different, the pollster would word the question to get the desired result of the poll, so really, the moral of the story, don't listen to polls anyway.
DailyKos on top of that is using Huffpost as the source... seriously... I'm waiting for huffpost to use this article as a source and the circlejerk to be complete and the universe to implode. - normalkid0615, on 09/10/2008, -2/+16My rule is...
If the news belongs to a publicly traded company, its not real news. - sugarazor, on 09/10/2008, -5/+19When Obama led in the polls, they "didn't matter." When McCain leads, "the Dems are finished."
- Wilarseny, on 09/10/2008, -3/+17not that i disagree, but this disrespect is why they call liberals elitist...
- Wilarseny, on 09/10/2008, -1/+15But you're not holding corporations and American immigration law to that same high standard. Do you think an immigrant working 15 hrs/day on a farm in california isn't hard working? Do you think a factory worker in ohio or pennsylvania who lost his job from outsourcing isn't hard working? It's due to draconian immigration laws and commercial welfare put in place by (mostly, not all and not exclusively) (neo)conservatives that we even need such things as universal healthcare. I agree in that I'd rather have a smaller government and have it stay out of our lives, but at the same time we need to stop measures the government takes that give unfair advantage to the wealthy, and that will never happen if you vote GOP. Real conservatives are another story, but you won't find any of those on the top of a major ticket in this day.
- JoeParanoid, on 09/10/2008, -3/+16Again, nothing new here but it remains a news story until something is done to correct it.
- costumemaker, on 09/10/2008, -1/+13actually I would say its more for the purposes of there not being a huge upheaval when the numbers of 48-52 suddenly flip in the middle of the night and fox news declares the winner as they mysteriously did in 2004.
- Ajajadude, on 09/10/2008, -0/+12I can afford a healthcare plan, I just can't get one because of a medical condition. If it wasn't for where I work, I'd be uninsured. So, please feel free to go play in traffic.
The reason we have an influx of needy people is because of the current economic issues. And who's been driving the economic policies for the past 8 years? A liberal Democrat? And who proposed giving illegal immigrants temporary legal status? Was that a liberal Democrat, too? Funny, I'm pretty sure it's been a Republican behind all of that... - Minarchian, on 09/10/2008, -1/+12I agree. I am glad it's finally hitting home with these people. But at the same time they should be reminded that this has been happening all along.
- shawn1122, on 09/11/2008, -0/+11It's depressing to hear that being a muslim is a problem for some people, this country clearly has a long long way to go. I am Christian and honestly, the religion of the person shouldn't mean ***** when it comes to being elected president, unless they use it to deeply influence their policies.
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