What is Digg?275 Comments
- 666dorado, on 05/13/2008, -3/+57"b-b-b-but West Virginia...!" - Hillary
- snoogit, on 05/13/2008, -2/+37Funny you don't follow your own advice.
- nblsavage, on 05/13/2008, -3/+38Spoken as someone who has NO idea what socialism really is.
- egoherodotus, on 05/13/2008, -2/+29He's not Muslim, you dumb *****.
and even if he were, it doesn't matter. this is America, everyone that comes to this country legally is welcome. - Krisgi, on 05/13/2008, -9/+39I congratulate Poblano for his extensive and exhaustive work, but even a 10% increase in voter turnout from any demographic group is a big stretch for the US, even this year. I think that we are maxxed.
We could take a good lesson from countries like Italy whose total turnout is always above 80% because they vote for 1.5 days in order to allow everyone more time to get to the polls. They also prohibit any polls from being published in the last two weeks prior to voting. E basta. The rest of the Italian political process sucks.
But, back to my point. I am a lot simpler in my analysis with regards to the November outcome. What it all boils down to is:
1. How many people are genuinely sick and tired of Bush and cannot entertain the idea of 4 mores years of the same with McCain and will vote for Obama or for a third party candidate like Barr or Paul. A lot of people.
2. How many people will not vote for Barack Obama under ANY circumstances for whatever criteria they choose. A considerable amount, but a lot less than those in 1. and includes the 30%, of course, of Clinton kamikazis, which will be down to about 20% by the time the generals get cranking.
My ultimate guess is about 55% for Obama or 3rd Party Candidates and 45% for McCain. With regards to the Electoral college, that gives the Democrats 295 versus 243 for the GOP, +/- 1.
Rasmussen shows the Democrats with 260 if you add leaners and the GOP with 240. 38 votes are up for grabs and, I suspect, will go to the Democrats in the end.
I have used no methodology other than my gut instincts, which is terribly crass, I know, but I just get the undeniable feeling... - aliengoods, on 05/13/2008, -4/+29NO! I won't do it!
- nblsavage, on 05/13/2008, -1/+26How can you have "anti-religious zeal" and "forced Muslim indoctrination"? Do you even read the crap you spew?
- mmccarthy, on 05/13/2008, -7/+34Obama made a great speech in Charleston today on Veterans issues. It's not my submission but I honestly think this one is important enough that it should be dugg up. The MSM have barely covered it.
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Barack_Obama_Kee ... - solidus23, on 05/13/2008, -1/+24not just sure.. HIV positive
- 10lbhammer, on 05/13/2008, -2/+22wow, I really hope you're kidding...
checked your comment history: you're not. I feel sorry for you. - aliengoods, on 05/13/2008, -4/+23Those crazy little symbols with strange shapes are called LETTERS. You can combine them to make WORDS, which I'm doing right now.
- db0255, on 05/13/2008, -1/+18I was making fun of the fact that he used sure twice.
- onanobj, on 08/07/2008, -3/+20It's funny every time! Keep up the good trollin' and don't let insignificant things like the facts get in your way!
- barfooz, on 05/13/2008, -2/+18The author here, Poblano, does excellent analysis of the Democratic primaries. His websites are http://www.fivethirtyeight.com and http://poblano.dailykos.com, both worth a read.
- dinot, on 05/13/2008, -2/+18"Mainstream US" DID vote for the black guy with a Muslim name. If someone gets more votes than the other, then they win. That's what happens in elections.
You, my friend, are not part of the "mainstream US" anymore. We're a whole lot smarter now. - esteskid, on 05/13/2008, -4/+19hahahahahahah
I hear this all the time, why is this hard to understand: MCCAIN IS NOT A SMALL GOVERNMENT CANDIDATE
Therefor I'm voting for the person who will hopefully stop so much deficit spending, something McCain is incapable of doing, or even talking about. - Eivo, on 05/13/2008, -1/+21Well, I live in Wheeling, WV, and I voted for Obama today. Speaking of which, I haven't seen a single Hillary ad anywhere. There are a lot of Obama signs though, even had supporters standing in front of the Capital Music Hall shouting in support of him. I wish he would have come here to speak though. I hate the fact that, due to my location, my vote counts far less than other voters.
- guyincognitoo, on 05/13/2008, -7/+21Unfortunately, you don't have a vary good track record.
- inactive, on 05/13/2008, -0/+16Xenu doesn't care about black people
- Nougat, on 05/13/2008, -1/+15So ... "forced Muslim indoctrination" and "even more fervent anti-religious zeal" at the same time? Seems like you'd have to pick one or the other.
And when I go to present myself as a criminal so I can get my gun, will I have to demonstrate evidence that I have committed a crime, or will criminal intent suffice? Must it be a violent crime, or can I get by on check kiting and parking tickets?
And wouldn't the "immigrant population explosion" work well alongside "eugenics"? With eugenics, we'd (I'm presuming that I'm in 'we') be able to more easily exploit all those stinky brown people who don't talk right. - petebot, on 05/13/2008, -4/+17Socialism had a very different connotation in the 1940's.
- inactive, on 05/13/2008, -7/+22Do you really have to complain when you could simply not read them?
- Anonchrist, on 05/13/2008, -2/+16He is not a Muslim, but I sort of wish that he was. Relations with the middle-east would be much better if they could learn from American Muslim leadership. At least he is among the few open minded Christian politicians.
- Yatata, on 05/13/2008, -8/+20this is craaazzzzy - get out there and start enfranchising some voters!
- ProfessorSYM, on 05/13/2008, -4/+16As goes West Virginia, so goes the nation...wait, nevermind I just had a senior moment.
- smacksaw, on 05/13/2008, -3/+16I'm always amazed at how statistics and trends tend to be very accurate indicators. I do wonder if this is all in a vacuum. How can we really take into consideration chaotic variables such as Hillary's shenanigans with race-baiting? You need to always be adding data to the model.
Anyway, I'd like to see him do a broader picture. I'm not sure what he's doing with Ron Paul and McCain. It seems as if my fellow Paulites are going to be a painful thorn in the side of the current GOP and will probably hurt McCain. Not that I would vote for McCain (unless it's against Hillary), but there's a good 5-15% of Republican, Independent and Libertarian voters out there who will vote for Paul or Obama, hurting McCain.
I wonder if the racist rednecks and hateful hillbillies who won't vote for a black man like Obama get canceled out by swing voters who will vote Obama directly (as I probably will) or still vote for Ron Paul no matter what (as I might if I feel Obama's win is secure).
It's not just the Democrats that are reshaping politics. The statistics do not take into account the Republicans and right-leaning Libertarians who are fighting the status quo on the right. - cw1242, on 05/13/2008, -2/+14I had a dream last night that I had a pen in my pocket with the words: Delegates Betray Obama - Hillary Wins written on it. My first politically charged dream and its a dissapointment, it better not come true.
- argaen21, on 05/13/2008, -6/+18Yes, you are evil. Funny thing is though, I would probably be an evil republican if it wasn't the corporate warmongering party. I'm against big government, abortion, etc, but I just cant vote for more wars all the time. I usually vote libertarian or green, but this time I will vote for Obama and hope you ***** douchebag republicans can get your ***** together and realize mcsame is a terrible candidate.
- 4321234, on 05/13/2008, -1/+11Don't you mean "Balack Hussein Osama"? Well, for starters, Crawford Texas gets it's village idiot back, John McCain can go back to making freedom fries and Hillary has more time to shop for pantsuits.
- ErikHarrison, on 05/13/2008, -3/+14Reverse psychiatry at it's finest. Hillary is that you?
- louiebaur, on 05/13/2008, -15/+28Yea I am sure there will be changes to the electoral map for sure
- wacomwacoff, on 05/13/2008, -1/+10Wow, you're a freakin' loony. Ok, let's look at a few of those.
SCHOOLS: Obama has a clear plan to improve teacher pay packages and the quality of primary education. It's in his book. Books are things with words that mean things.
ISLAM/MUSLIM: Since Obama isn't a Muslim and never has been, you're astoundingly paranoid if you think he's going to enslave the human race because his father gave him a traditional Islamic middle name.
GUNS: Huh? Now you're just making things up.
IMMIGRANTS: Again, huh? Obama's never said anything about relaxing immigration, and even if he did -- I'm decended from immigrants, so.... so ***** what?
EUGENICS: Ok, now this is bonafide comedy hour. You do know what eugenics is, right? Systematic forced breeding to control genetic traits? Sure, Obama's big priority is to create a super-race of men. Right.
In the words of Forbidden Zone: "You're really out to lunch!!" - 666dorado, on 05/13/2008, -13/+25i wonder if his model takes into account election rigging to favor republicans? you know it's going to happen (e.g. voter fraud, malfunctioning/hacked electronic voting machines with no papertrail, disenfranchisement/turning people away at the polls, etc).
- cha5e, on 05/13/2008, -0/+10Good for you, and thanks for the first-hand account. Here, outside of your beautiful state, the MSM is portraying things as if there is not a single Obama supporter there.
As far as your last sentence, in a sense, your vote counts for more, at least in November, since your two senators' electoral votes are determined by a smaller number of voters than, say, the electoral votes of California's two senators. But I see what you mean...I just cast my vote for Obama a week ago, and it definitely felt kind of like arriving to the party after most people had gone home. - inactive, on 05/13/2008, -0/+9Then the November headlines would read "McCain Wins In Landslide."
- pakruse, on 05/13/2008, -3/+12Not to quibble, but it isn't as though the Democrats have never rigged an election.
- AyaJulia, on 05/13/2008, -1/+11I love how the Obama-bashers never fail to invoke thoughts of Iraqi dictators by using his middle name. So, sharing a name with someone automatically makes you the same as them, does it? I fail to see the logical leap involved in that decision....
- Anonchrist, on 05/13/2008, -1/+10Why us stupid ass democrates aint all back water raciest like sum of your Neo-cons. If he beats Hillary through a popular vote, that might signify that there are more voters that support him than Hillary; a dumb concept huh. Anyhow, us fools thank he can do more than just pick us some cotton.
- db0255, on 05/13/2008, -7/+18how sure are you?
- boombye, on 05/13/2008, -3/+10Most of that stuff is already going on under Republican rule. OffPiste is like another JAVandvier or B1663r, uneducated morons who have problems accepting people who look different from them. They are a dying breed, and for that they feel threatened and lash out at progress.
- wacomwacoff, on 05/13/2008, -0/+7If the only people who voted for Obama are gay socialists, then damn, I had no idea half of the country was homosexual. That'll make the Pride parades a lot more popular, eh?
- dinot, on 05/13/2008, -0/+7The internet will be remembered as one of man's greatest contributions to learning and knowledge. You have ALL the information in the world at your fingertips, and amazing tools at your disposal to help you critically analyze any situation or belief.
And yet people like yourself still post ignorant drivel. You're an embarrassment to humanity. - bruce86, on 05/13/2008, -1/+7Non-issue, whites already vote
- heysuburbia, on 05/13/2008, -0/+7Getting slow, google cache:
http://64.233.169.104/search?q=cache:http%3A%2F%2F ... - wacomwacoff, on 05/13/2008, -1/+7I don't trust John McCain because he's named after a toilet and a Biblical sinner.
- dinot, on 05/13/2008, -1/+8WOW.
How does it feel to be so ignorant and paranoid? - metaliq, on 05/13/2008, -2/+9You will hopefully stop using his middle name for whatever obnoxious reason it is that you do so.
I know. It's one of those subversive awareness tactics. But it's annoying. - wacomwacoff, on 05/13/2008, -4/+12I've read his book; I know his platform inside and out. There's nothing remotely socialist about his ideas, and really, he's about as mainstream American as it gets. If you think Obama is "counterculture" then your culture really needs to go away.
- GregLoire, on 05/13/2008, -1/+7Damn Jimmy Carter and his dirty Nobel Peace Prize!
- Hetman, on 05/13/2008, -1/+7You need to go to San Fransisco and experiment before you make a drastic statement like that.
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