205 Comments
- smacksaw, on 04/08/2008, -0/+51Update: Hillary's camp announced that the margin of error was +/- 10%, so she's still actually in the lead. And if you count Michigan and Florida she's ahead of Obama, McCain and Bono combined.
- u2wedge, on 04/08/2008, -3/+42I predict the final split will be 60-37
- godzillaWax, on 04/08/2008, -0/+32"Despite your belief she has a very valid claim to be the next democratic nominee."
Except for the fact that, you know, she lost in the nominating process.
For her, it's really wonderful that her voting base is the uneducated, because it makes it so much easier to have them parrot your lies. - Tarkaan, on 04/08/2008, -1/+30Do the math. It's over.
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -9/+37Who is this Obama guy?? How come I never see him in the news or or Digg very much???
- toasty168, on 04/08/2008, -4/+30I like Obama but I hate polls. They're such *****.
- worldinmyeyes, on 04/08/2008, -2/+28Hillary's core: elderly women, low-information voters, a dumbed-downed populace who like the Clinton name, and a small but powerful corporate elite who know she is really in their pocket all along.
- InstantPundit, on 04/08/2008, -1/+24Highly unlikely. Clinton is down by double digits in NC. Also, the ground organization here in Indiana for Obama is....ridiculous. They are everywhere. I think his strategy is to reduce the loss in Pennsylvania and win big in NC and slightly in IN thus negating a Pennsylvania win.
- sqwirl, on 04/08/2008, -0/+20Or you could *gasp* figure out how to use Digg filters. . .
- sugarhigh4242, on 04/08/2008, -0/+19How she lost the nominating process:
#1: Lost in delegates (only thing that matters, really)
#2: Lost in popular vote
#3: Lost in # of states
The only chance that remains for Hillary Clinton is convincing party officials to overturn the decision of voters. Is that really what you're advocating?
You're delusional if you think California and New York will go to McCain when Obama gets the nomination. Also, Obama makes some midwestern and southern states competitive that would not be with Hillary on the ticket. - NikoKun, on 04/08/2008, -0/+15bclinton...? O_o
... =O - Jwoey, on 04/08/2008, -0/+15Are those republican states really a sure thing?
Look at Texas.
Obama trails McCain there by 1 pt, Clinton trails by 7.
Look at Colorado.
Obama is tied with McCain. Clinton trails by 14.
Look at Wisconsin
Obama trails by 2, Clinton trails by 11.
That's 55 electoral votes that McCain is going to have to campaign hard to get.
You see the same thing in Iowa, Nebraska, Oregon, North Dakota, and Washington, for an additional 33 Electoral votes.
How much money would he have to spend in those states if Clinton's the nominee? Many of the states that Clinton does well in are states that both democrats will likely carry (an exception is Florida, which i'll give you, is significant). - Edwaldo, on 04/08/2008, -7/+21AND he's overtaken McCain
- cvindustries, on 04/08/2008, -1/+15That's why it's STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT. P value can't overcome the 9 points. Ergo, Obama is ahead of Hillary. Dumbass.
- cresswga, on 04/08/2008, -0/+13I agree that PA will go to Hilary but I only predict single digits. NC will be a clear victory for Obama though.
Saying Obama should quit because his states will go Republican in the election is as equally ridiculous as saying Hilary should stay in because only she will be able to carry CA and NY. - aphexcoil, on 04/08/2008, -0/+13I wouldn't be surprised if her camp was looking into redefining mathematical principles in order to get her the lead.
"She has 130 fewer delegates, but the delegates that support her are, on average, taller than the one's supporting Obama. Do you want dwarfs deciding this election?"
That's the kind of logic going on in her camp lately. - blackcloud333, on 04/08/2008, -0/+12Dugg for ergo. People should say ergo more.
- RoloTomasie, on 04/08/2008, -1/+12 Clinton should drop-out while she still has no dignity.
- Renian, on 04/08/2008, -2/+12...Which means the other 72% go to Obama, which is significantly more.
Fail. - Herald42, on 04/08/2008, -2/+12I think it'll be 84-40 in extra innings.
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -1/+10Speaking of fake accounts.. . .
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -1/+10Both states have high concentrations of Hillary's key demographic--uneducated white folk.
- fuhcough, on 04/08/2008, -5/+14too bad she's a bitch. sorry, couldn't resist. bury me.
- sugarhigh4242, on 04/08/2008, -1/+10Is it possible to discuss Hillary Clinton without saying "bitch". For all the racial ***** that gets thrown around in this race, the misogyny seems to be completely acceptable.
Instead of "bitch", how about "warmonger", "liar", "fascist", etc. These gender neutral descriptors are far more effective in my opinion. And more honest as well. - jd72277, on 04/08/2008, -1/+10fani might one day discover sarcasm.
- Gerz1219, on 04/08/2008, -2/+10Probably because he's black.
- cvindustries, on 04/08/2008, -0/+7I can't understand how Digg, which is supposed to be filled with people that are more inclined in math and science, don't have even a rudimentary understanding of statistics.
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -0/+7Hilarry = Weekend at Bernie's.
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -0/+7McCain has stated flatly that he WILL NOT allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, which 100% guarantees he will start a war with them. That is the last ***** thing we need - another war with an Islamic nation. That would in turn guarantee continued terrorist strikes on the US for decades to come. And future attacks will probably be WMD based, whether biological or - worst case scenario - nukes going off in Amercian cities. All this war-mongering will catch up with us.
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -1/+7So you aren't willing to commit yourself and your family for 100 years? Typical Chickenhawk.
- EtherGnat, on 04/08/2008, -0/+6It's the nature of a socially driven news site. It will never change unless Digg implements editors, or at least good collaborative filtering. Adding complaint SPAM does not improve the situation any.
- jellygraph, on 04/08/2008, -0/+6Thats a pretty damn idiotic comment. Those states Clinton won would still vote democratic when Obama wins the nomination.
Let me guess: you are one of those idiot republicans pretending to be Hillary Clinton supporters to stir up trouble. - cvindustries, on 04/08/2008, -0/+6Sure, I'll bite.
This is what we're talking about:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/b/9/e/b9e3c70729f ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P_value
Frank Luntz really has nothing to do with a Gallup Poll. Gallup publishes its results, including all relevant tables for scrutiny. They wouldn't get repeat business if they didn't. Coke, GM, Wachovia, etc pay millions of dollars to have Gallup include customer surveys in their political polls. If Gallup didn't use statistically reliable and valid methodology, they'd be out of business. Grow up and see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Validity_(statistics)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_(statisti ...
Signed,
me - Deanblackoak, on 04/08/2008, -2/+8You really believe a short, bald guy with no ideas that says things like "I don't understand the economy" and "It's okay to keep troops in Iraq for a hundred years" is going to beat Obama?
- Gerz1219, on 04/08/2008, -1/+7Informed people make up their decision early and more or less stick to it, barring a major confidence-shaking scandal. This is the reason you don't often see 30 point swings in the polls late in a race -- each candidates' base hardens early on.
Idiots are swayed one way or another by every sound bite, attack ad and gaffe. They make up about 15% of the population, and they're the only ones who actually decide an election. It's really sort of depressing. - MacEnvy, on 04/08/2008, -0/+5Western PA may as well *be* Ohio. I don't know if you've ever been there, but Pittsburgh has more in common with Cleveland than Philly.
- allengeer, on 04/08/2008, -1/+5Gallup has them tied, but the average of national polls has Obama by .6%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/presi ... - inactive, on 04/08/2008, -1/+5You like to hang out in front of the corner store
You like picking up loose change in the leave a penny jar
You like collecting welfare
You like Jeff Foxworthy
You're Vanilla Ice. - inactive, on 04/08/2008, -2/+6The Repubs blew their wad too early with the Wright stuff. Anybody who thinks critically will be able to see those clips as edited propaganda meant to stir up old racial fears. Anybody who doesn't think critically was going to vote for McCain anyway.
- terracottapai, on 04/08/2008, -0/+469-42.
- inactive, on 04/08/2008, -2/+6Nice try, but my family has been here since the revolution. If anyone is an immigrant it's you. What country do trolls come from?
- scottc, on 04/08/2008, -0/+4"So Obama should quit because he is wining in states which he has no chance of carrying in general election."
Actually, that's one of Obama's strongest points. The states that traditionally vote Democratic will not swing Republican whether he or Clinton are the candidate. He is stronger in the swing states and much stronger in the Republican states. He and McCain will fight over the independents and swing voters because both of them have a history of putting the country's needs before party politics. If Clinton wins the nomination she will cede the independents to McCain, and will have to rely on traditional Democratic voters for the win. It's not impossible for her to win, but it would be much harder for her than for Obama in November.
Additionally, if Obama is the nominee and he wins in November he will likely have a true "mandate" - high popular support that will allow him to influence Congress and get things done because he won votes from Republicans and independents. - sugarhigh4242, on 04/08/2008, -0/+3isn't it also just as likely to be 55:40?
- Pherdnut, on 04/08/2008, -2/+5I don't know if I'd call a Gallup poll spam.
- dinot, on 04/08/2008, -0/+3So 72% of Clinton backers will vote Obama? Dude, you are your own worst enemy.
- dinot, on 04/08/2008, -0/+3?
- Jwoey, on 04/08/2008, -1/+4we're not allowed to say bitch, *****, whore, slut
they are allowed to say *****, jerk, *****, prick.
I agree with all those other classifications, but I hate the sentiment that bitch is off limits. - inactive, on 04/08/2008, -1/+4my math isnt what it used to be but I give it 87-65
- BlackStrain, on 04/08/2008, -0/+3Fighting for peace is like ***** for virginity.
- allengeer, on 04/08/2008, -0/+3are you retarded? The poll says: "In a general election between McCain and Obama who would you vote for?" This sample includes the sample of hillary supporters who vote McCain to cause Obama to lose because its a sample of the general population.
You cant just tack on 28% because that 28% is not a precentage of the general population. Furthermore, you can't just tack on 28% without subtracting 28% from somewhere else. Since precentages always need to add to 100% when referring to percentages of a sample. You are dumb. Congratulations. -
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