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35 Comments
- welshboy82, on 08/11/2008, -0/+19@infernalmachine - a prediction market is where you buy and sell outcomes of events, in the same way as you would buy and sell a company's stock. The clever bit is that the price of the market gives a very accurate forecast of the probability of that event (because everyone who participates brings more information to the price). It sounds complicated, but actually just amounts to making predictions. For example, on this site, they're forecasting that there's a 66% chance Phelps will break Mark Spitz's record of 7 gold medals: http://www.hubdub.com/m10681/Will_Michael_Phelps_b ...
That's calculated from the amount of Hubdub dollars (play currency on Hubdub) that has been bet each way on this event, and changes over time (see graph).
Pretty cool if it works. - InfernalMachine, on 08/11/2008, -0/+18What are prediction markets? How do they work?
- destry71, on 08/11/2008, -0/+18I don't know what is more addictive.... screaming for phelps to win, or counting my hubdub money when he does.
- RaspberryTang, on 08/11/2008, -0/+15Heh.... betting on whether they'll be a terrorist attack on the Olympics is kind of a moral boundary for me.
- inactive, on 08/11/2008, -0/+14Big write up of who is going to top the medal table in USA Today. Both the US and China are down-playing it but I think it is going to be eagerly contested (and my money is on China)
- lesleye, on 08/11/2008, -0/+14addictive stuff!!
- notaktak, on 08/11/2008, -1/+15That's pretty neat - I've spent way too much on real bets already
- MrPerfkt, on 08/11/2008, -0/+11Will be fun to see if Phelps comes even close to breaking Spitz's record. Interesting story about this today...
HONG KONG (AFP) - US swim legend Mark Spitz won't be on hand in Beijing if Michael Phelps breaks his record of seven gold medals at a single Olympics -- because, he says, no one bothered to invite him.
Spitz said the International Olympic Committee, a US television network or FINA -- the international body that governs world swimming -- should have brought him to the Games this year, with Phelps making a go at his record.
"I never got invited. You don't go to the Olympics just to say, I am going to go. Especially because of who I am," Spitz told AFP in Hong Kong.
"I am going to sit there and watch Michael Phelps break my record anonymously? That's almost demeaning to me. It is not almost -- it is."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080811/en_afp/oly200 ... - AmyVernon, on 08/11/2008, -0/+10too cool. i'm already addicted to hubdub, so now i'm doomed.
- inactive, on 08/11/2008, -0/+10@mr perfkt, isn't Spitz the guy who was caught with that ugly prostitute?
the cubans looked good playing beach volleyball today, skillwize i mean. - HDCognos, on 08/11/2008, -0/+10I get the experience of wagering on the Olympics, and don't lose any real money. I like that, and my Wife likes that.
- RaspberryTang, on 08/11/2008, -0/+6Spitz had discounted Phelps as not being able to break his record. He's pretty much being a jealous ass. Remember the last people who discounted the American Swimmers? Suffice to say it didn't turn out to well for the French Swimmers.
- RaspberryTang, on 08/11/2008, -0/+5There's no way China isn't gonna get it. After last nights dismal Gymnastics performance, I'm putting all my money on China for the most medals. As to them deserving it, well that's another story...
- austinisi, on 08/12/2008, -0/+4Prediction markets are really useful.
Intrade uses real money: http://www.intrade.com/
If you want to know who will be the next president, whether there will be a recession, etc check it. - shufan, on 08/12/2008, -0/+3Very cool. The site as a whole looks awesome. I will definitely be spending some time on it tonight.
- thekms, on 08/12/2008, -0/+3phelps phtw!
all i have to say. - inactive, on 08/11/2008, -0/+3I have hope!
- sdchargers21, on 08/12/2008, -0/+3The Mens 4x100m Relay was crazy! The best swimming race I have ever seen. Phelps has been the main story in the Olympics, but it was Jason Lezak, the oldest member of the swimming team that saved the day for the USA. What REALLY made it great for me was how Alain Bernard was talking trash, saying how they were going to "Smash" USA; and it was against him that Lezak came from almost a full body length behind to come back and win by eight-hundredths of a second. Amazing stuff.
- sphigel, on 08/12/2008, -0/+3I was actually at a bar when that race was on. The whole bar was going nuts. There was actually a USA chant going on. I can't remember the last time I got that into any event in the Olympics. Alcohol seems to increase my patriotism.
- RaspberryTang, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2Yeah well if I had the money... I guess for now I'm relegated to putting fake money on China owning the Olympics
- inactive, on 08/11/2008, -2/+4I hear you there.
- InfernalMachine, on 08/11/2008, -0/+2So I could win play money, and also know more about what's likely to happen in the future? That sounds intriguing. Thanks.
- faizal5k, on 08/12/2008, -0/+2You should get the 2008 Summer Games iGoogle gadget which shows how many medals each team currently has. Right now China is at the #1 spot with the USA at #2, and South Korea at #3.
http://www.google.com/landing/summergames2008/inde ... - mantid, on 08/13/2008, -0/+1I predict Phelps will make it to 8, at which point I will write a song. I already wrote one for his progress to the halfway mark. Listen to it here:
http://journalrhythm.blogspot.com/2008/08/michael- ... - flamingduck, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1dugg for the cubans
- inactive, on 08/12/2008, -0/+13/3 so far!!! :D
- aburrido, on 08/12/2008, -1/+2I'm surprised you think South Korea is spelled with a 'C', especially when you stuck the landing on "they're" and "doing well."
- jlpete9, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1Wow what a great collection of topics. That's pretty sweet.
- Mothrog, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1mrzack, you better tell South Korea that.
http://www.korea.net/ - jlpete9, on 08/12/2008, -0/+1Dismal?! The men managed a bronze when they were expected to be in 5 or 6th. I think that's pretty fantastic. There's still a lot of swimming and track/field to go. I think the US can pull it out (although I admit its going to be really close!)
- louiebaur, on 08/12/2008, -2/+2Yea totally me too;-)
- sdchargers21, on 08/12/2008, -0/+0What cognos said above, I agree 100%. That is my favorite thing about hubdub is that it allows me to put wagers on questions (mainly sports in my case) and not lose any real money when I get it wrong, but still feel the excitement of winning when I get it right. The Olympics questions have been a fun area to place bets on. The remaining swimming events, gymnastics, and track & field events I will definitely be betting on.
The medal count questions have my attention also and will be following these questions also. - inactive, on 08/12/2008, -1/+1I'm surprised Russia is lagging behind. They're suppose to be a powerhouse. Also, S. Corea is doing well.
- inactive, on 08/12/2008, -1/+1It is spelled with a C *****. go learn some history.
- BlatheringIdiot, on 08/12/2008, -0/+0I thought Spitz was dead....
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