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Mark_LincolnFeb 6, 2012
And who would be hurt most by closing the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran is like a guy holding a razor to his own throat and threatening to cut it.
The USA and Israel are like lunatics in a crowded theater holding hand grenades with the pins out.
Damn, what a sane bunch we have trying to inflame the other guy into starting the war they all want.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
Well no, Israel does have a point. Iran is a country of lunatics that has supported terrorism before. And Iran keeps saying that it wants to wipe Israel off the map or whatever. If Iran gets a nuke and "loses" it to some terrorists, Israel and America will be at the very top of the list of potential targets.
Of course if Iran anything like this, it's history. Not only Israel, but half of the Arab states will invade it. Probably with Russia and India waiting their turn to kick the ever loving s**t out of Iran. China would love to join in, but the rest of the people would rather it didn't.
And if Israel is nuked, you can say bye-bye to Iran, because Israel has it's own nukes. Plenty of them - probably over a hundred (although nobody is sure). Not to mention a bunch of ICBMs in hardened bunkers, submarine-launched cruise missiles, bombers, etc.
If Israel is feeling charitable it may go for just an EMP burst over Iran, taking it back into the stone age. But that's a big if - it depends on the type of attack and number of casualties in Israel.
Closed AccountFeb 7, 2012
yeah. tey'll stop traffic for what? an hour or two before the us establishes airspace dominance and re opens the sea lanes. remember they said well lose thousands in the inital drive to baghdad and defeat iraq's supposedly elite republican guard. we lost three people and no jets and captured baghdad inside of a frakkin week.
same thing here. paper tiger.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
Well, less than a week. The problem is that Iran might mine the region. It will take time to find and remove those mines. And if a tanker is actually hit, there will be an ecological disaster besides everything else.
Closed AccountFeb 7, 2012
or just drop a lot of sound buoys to activate the sound triggered ones and use torpedos to get the rest.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
First you have to find them. Then you need to double and triple check to make sure you didn't miss any special smart mines or some sort of delayed action torpedoes. The straight is huge.
About the only way you can be absolutely certain you got them all is drive tanker barge up and down the straight for a couple of days.
Closed AccountFeb 7, 2012
we can find them. we have that technology.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minehunter
agmlauncherFeb 7, 2012
That's ok, then we just round up every single member of the Iranian government and military and drown them in the oil. Simple minded people like the Iranian leadership need only simple forms of punishment. Complex things like diplomacy or being nice is like teaching rocket science to a 2 year old - it's physically incapable of understanding.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
... You do realize that it would take at least a couple of months to set everything up for an invasion? And an atrocity like that would be extremely counter-productive?
ieatskunkFeb 7, 2012
Relax, we have dolphins for that s**t.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
"we can find them. we have that technology."
Maybe - unless the mines or torpedoes sink to the bottom and configured to pop up only a few days after - a mine hunter won't find them.
And even if Iran doesn't have any systems like that, it will still take time. At least a week to be absolutely sure.
Closed AccountFeb 7, 2012
iran doesnt have that tech. and the strait is 34 miles wide at it narrowest point. but w/ 24/7 ops. i guess 4 days to clear the deep parts for shipping and 3 more to clear the shallow parts.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
Bah, I can build that in a week. It's not that complicated. And Iran is fairly advanced - with a few months notice they could easily build a bunch of systems like that. Also, while the straight is not very wide (the navigatable channel is actually only 6 miles wide) it is quite long.
ieatskunkFeb 7, 2012
Iran brought down one of America's most advanced drones. I wouldnt underestimate the amount of technological help they get from China.
h8f8kesFeb 10, 2012
Yeah, they didn't get lucky due to a malfunction or anything........
/s
blankmikeFeb 6, 2012
Looks more like politics than Science.
sanmanFeb 7, 2012
here u go - better now?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMBXp97iK7g
ieatskunkFeb 7, 2012
American's Undisputed Weapon: The ability to retake the strait.
KapsiotFeb 7, 2012
How could Iran block the oil flow? We could destroy their entire navy in one afternoon.
ieatskunkFeb 7, 2012
Yes, their navy will be at the bottom of the sea (the US navy even officially stated this, haha), but they can still mine and sabotage the lanes, keeping them offline for potentially weeks while America cleans it up.
trivialanomalyFeb 8, 2012
Um, still underestimating the duration of potential military conflicts in the Middle East.
FPSmotoFeb 7, 2012
You can only push a country so far before they fight back. We've pushed Iran to the brink of their own destruction. If they're all dead, at least the evil USA will not get their precious black gold. The US is like smeagol and the oil is like the ring of power and Ron Paul is motherf**king Frodo, except this isn't really a movie and real lives are at stake, regardless of what country they're born in. And that saddens me deeply.
ka5p3rFeb 7, 2012
i recall a time when the bush administration said Iraq had WMD's,nothing was ever found.now Iran has nuclear weapon's.the middle east has been fighting for a long time so why not sit back and let them kill each other off.taking sides will only hurt your self.case in point,go to bed with Israel and 911 is history.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
cujoquarrelFeb 7, 2012
Iraq at one time did have WMDs. The did not have nukes they had deadly gasses.
WMD does not mean nukes
(Pet peeve)
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
Are you really asking that question? Feeling a bit sociopathic tonight?
1. Millions would die in a nuclear exchange.
2. A nuclear exchange can escalate. Haven't you seen War Games? A bunch of the scenarios that WOPR played through were variations on the middle east exchange starting off in Libya, Iran, Turkey, etc.:
http://mothrapisces.tumblr.com/post/3362237675/the-list-of-nuclear-war-scenarios-played-out-by-wopr-at
These ones sound similar to this potential situation:
MIDDLE EAST WAR
ARABIAN THEATERWIDE
MIDDLE EAST HEAVY
TURKISH HEAVY
PALESTINIAN LOCAL
IRANIAN MANEUVER
MIDDLE EAST OFFENSIVE
ISREAL DISCRETIONARY
PALISTINIAN TACTICAL
ARABIAN STRIKE
ARABIAN LIGHT
3. There are tons of innocent non-crazy people in the region. You would have them die too.
4. Most of our oil is unfortunately there. If it's irradiated, that will destroy the world economy - it will be a much bigger hit than what we have now.
5. That sort of thing would destabilize the region and could open the door for China or Russia.
6. A ton of our trading partners are there. That too would destroy the economy. The margin of profit for a corporation like Coca-Cola is surprisingly small. Just destroying those markets without any secondary effects would be a tremendous hit on the economy.
ybevar1Feb 7, 2012
If Iran shuts down the strait of Hormuz and Obama decides to act tough, the US can carpet bomb the strait and clear it of debris within a day.
There is no issue here.
trivialanomalyFeb 8, 2012
Sort of like when Rumsfeld said “It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months” about the Iraq invasion?
ybevar1Feb 8, 2012
I don't suspe the US is interested in any sort of 'nation building' in Iran.
The people of Iran clearly do not support the current regime (see the last elections).
I think there will be an internal coup if any kind of military conflict arises.
ieatskunkFeb 7, 2012
In Iraq and Afghanistan America was very concerned with "hearts and minds" and "political correct warfare". We wont care about those things we we retake the strait. We will be going for maximum damage, maximum loss of enemy life. And you can bet that America is going to carve out and control Iran's coastline with the strait. They will never get it back.
starmanjonesFeb 7, 2012
concern for hearts and minds is a subset of massive land invasion and occupation. thats not going to happen in iran. the whole thing will last a few hours. it will target every militant muslim governmental institution and every thing having to do with the military. there are probably special forces already there.
there are a huge number of secular people that would love to rejoin the modern world. we'll be in and out hours and leave the clean up to secular iranians. if they need help it will come from israel.
bet.
angrycat70Feb 7, 2012
Ber Rabbit sez please don't throw me in the thorns so naturally, Ber Fox throws him in the thorns.
Ber Rabbit sez thanks I was born in the thorns.
Uncle Sam sez please don't start a war at sea... so naturally, the Ayatollahs close the Persian Gulf.
Uncle Sam will show them that we live in the deep blue water.
Closed AccountFeb 7, 2012
Iran doesn't have to block any strait. All it has to do is take out the oil loading facilities, which are very vulnerable. Besides, the east-west oil pipeline will be sabotaged for sure, so you can't really count on it being operational.
assassyn360Feb 7, 2012
Well, it looks like all that fallout 3, and fallout Vegas training is going to pay off when the s**t hits the fan and spreads all over the room.
yunuan2011Feb 9, 2012
必须推翻伊朗政府！www.godhol.com！！
captswuitsFeb 7, 2012
Like I said over on this digg (http://digg.com/news/world_news/britain_had_to_plead_with_us_to_take_part_in_iran_flotilla) Just cut Israel loose on them, it will be over faster than "white on rice, on a paper plate, with a glass of milk, in a snow storm."Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
elimgarakFeb 7, 2012
And the rest of the Arab countries would attack Israel. Besides, it will be difficult for Israel to do anything, since the enrichment facilities are deep underground, under a mountain.
captswuitsFeb 7, 2012
Israel has never lost a war and they want to go in badly. Plus, everyone in the middle east (Arab) already attack them on almost a daily bases. Its apart of their life.