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rustygbAug 12, 2010
And if you believe that, I've got a great bridge to sell you...
enantiodromiaAug 12, 2010
the difference is, you clearly don't have a bridge to sell, and AAPL is clearly up 1800% in the last few years.
bet against APPL all you want, but obviously a lot of people have made a lot of money from AAPL.
rustygbAug 12, 2010
You're right, I'm sure that the deflationary trend and massively over leveraged equities market will in no way affect Apple's perpetual rapid growth.
enantiodromiaAug 12, 2010
/me looks at AAPL and GOOG
looks like they are still doing pretty well. if it disappoints you that tech companies did very well through the great recession, go ahead and lose more money shorting tech stocks while the rest of us make money.
i'm sure it's better to be 'right' than paid.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
Flaw in reasoning: Assumes a definitive continuity between past and future.
smokezzAug 12, 2010
And when Steve Jobs health takes a turn for the worse, or he simply dies? Kaboom goes APPL.
elamoAug 12, 2010
1800%? Doesn't that mean increasing by a multiple of 18? That is definitely not right. Perhaps you mean 300%.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
@ElAmo
AAPL closed at 251.79 today. 251.79 / 18 = 13.88 repeating. According to google finance, AAPL was trading at 13.53 on May 14, 2004. I think 6 years qualifies as a "few" in general terms.
enantiodromiaAug 12, 2010
"1800%? Doesn't that mean increasing by a multiple of 18? That is definitely not right. Perhaps you mean 300%."
Try again.
Jan 2004:
AAPL is $10
Aug 2010:
AAPL is $250
$10/share + 100% gain = $20/share
$10/share + 1000% gain = $100/share
$10/share + 2000% gain = $200/share
$10/share + 2500% gain = $250/share
So, you were right:
AAPL isn't up 1,800% in the last six year; it's 2,500%, or 416%/year.
References:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AAPL
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=10+*+2500%25+%3D&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=2500+%2F+6+%3D&aq=f&aqi=g9g-s1&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
Hmm I see your logic... A lot of people made a lot of money in housing too over the last 10 years, does that mean housing is going to see a resurgence?
Simply put, f**k no.
Every major stock worldwide is overvalued, and we'll see a correction by years end.
enantiodromiaAug 12, 2010
You want to bet $1,024US that every major stock worldwide does not in fact see a correction in the next four months?
Can someone be the escrow for us, I want in on this action.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
@enant
Even if it isn't every major stock, this is still a risky gamble, which is why stock trades really aren't for the faint of heart or the stupid.
enantiodromiaAug 13, 2010
"Fortune favors the bold"
- Virgil
Closed AccountAug 13, 2010
@enant
Where'd that come from? That quote only applies if I'm advocating never taking a single risk and living life in constant fear. Hate to burst your bubble, but there's a difference between making calculated risks and making stupid gambles.
If you're so confident Apple's stock will surpass $400, why don't you invest in it yourself?
I, on the other hand, don't have cash to spare. I'm just a poor, hungry college student.
enantiodromiaAug 13, 2010
I hope you aren't paying that college too much, if you don't understand a simple Latin quotation.
Another way to say it is "Risk vs Reward".
I personally don't care what any stock sells for, since I do not own any publicly traded stocks. I was merely pointing out that AAPL was up "at least" 1,800% in the last few years.
Then I had to educate someone on simple mathematics.
Again, don't care, just pointing facts out.
Closed AccountAug 13, 2010
@enant
Are. You. f**king. Kidding me? I don't think the problem is I didn't understand a Latin quote which wasn't even phrased in Latin in the first place! Did you not read past my first rhetorical question? Did you not get the point? Again: your quote is misplaced. You're simply inserting a quote for the sake of being able to take credit for having used one in the first place. Way to go for belaboring a point that was pretty f**king obvious.
You remind me of some funny white folks out there who make pitiable attempts at speaking Italian just to appear at least somewhat intelligent while at Olive Garden. They'll toss around whatever idioms and phrases they've picked up with the assumption that none of us present understand a word they're saying, leading to their imagined scenario in which we clap and say "You're a genuine casanova!" Just one problem. A problem emerges when it turns out that some of us took a few years of Italian during high school and still have a decent grasp of the basics. Imagine their embarrassment upon the realization that they've pretty landed in tardville.
I hope the schools you attended taught you well in areas other than reading comprehension because well...let's just say that in a competitive job market, employers have little tolerance for incompetence in basic skills. I can tell ya that. A couple of years ago, I got one of my coworkers inadvertently fired after our boss found that (1) he was a douchey slacker and (2) I had the skill sets for my job and his.
If you're still not clear on what was being said, let me spell it out for you: You're a f**king retard. It's pretty clear from your level of intellect you have no business pontificating about Apple's past and future successes. I've read your previous posts in the pasts and frankly, I have yet to read a single comment that implies you at least have a feeble grasp of the basics of investment and market economics. You're not really pointing out the facts unless you count spending 30 seconds to Google a figure. Congratulations. You did something my 10-year-old-kids in Korea can do with minimal effort. Hope your self-esteem is comforted.
You can rest on your laurels knowing you'll probably never land a halfway decent job at a Fortune 500 company with your absence of much to be desired. Keep on tooting your own horn and trying to copy/paste irrelevant adages "phrased-in-Latin-even-though-they're-translated-into-English-just-so-I-can-sound-smarter-than-a-fifth-grader" all you want. You're still a douchebag.
maxxusflamusAug 12, 2010
you know- someone probably said that exact thing about it's current stock price many many times in the past 10 years.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
Nothing like condescension without a lick of supporting theory or evidence. Not only is it obnoxious, but you're using the "bridge to sell you" idiom wrong, as it is meant for things that should be patently obvious or self-evident, which this isn't.
I'll never forget how damn condescending several people I consulted with were before I bought 500 shares of Apple at $36/share. I'm not saying that CNN is right and that Apple will hit $400, but it sure wouldn't surprise me. To discount it outright is downright foolish, but when it comes to being anti-Apple, you can count on plenty of digs for such careless bluster.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
rustygbAug 12, 2010
Wikipedia disagrees with you, my friend:
"References to "selling the Brooklyn Bridge" abound in American culture, sometimes as examples of rural gullibility but more often in connection with an idea that strains credulity. For example, "If you believe that, I've got a bridge to sell you."
shellcase13Aug 12, 2010
You had me at "Beating Wall Street"
ahhellAug 12, 2010
How are you "beating wall street" when you buying f**king stocks?!?!?
Are you just "joining the club"??
shellcase13Aug 12, 2010
Must've forgotten the /s
mynameisjoeAug 13, 2010
I thought he was thinkIng of beating as in with a club.
shellcase13Aug 13, 2010
I'm a fan of bludgeoning. Preferably while in the same suit as Lasko, especially when bludgeoning Wall Street execs.
ingramanAug 12, 2010
So which morons dug this up?
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Those who have made money on AAPL for a long time now.
propethicAug 12, 2010
"for a long time"
You do know how stocks work right? I doubt many digg users invested in Apple before they boomed. But of course I'll probably get a jazillion replies from people who supposedly did, seeing as how this is the internet and all.
fleischnerAug 12, 2010
I bought a lot of Apple stock when it was at about $12.50. After a lot of time and several splits, it's currently worth 1,857.41% of my original purchase price. Laugh it up, fuzzball.
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Well considering that they are growing at 30-50% per quarter, the Mac, iPad and iPhone lines all have significant room to grow, and iAds/massive new data centre/etc. haven't yet been factored into the share price there is much growth potential to the stock.
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/08/05/will-apple-stop-growing-37-a-year/
davidtcAug 12, 2010
Propethic is just mad he missed the time(s) to buy Apple cheap. But he knows how stocks work, so who is to question him?
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Oops correction: Growth at 30-50% per y/y. Mea culpa...
bosskeyAug 12, 2010
I feel pretty happy having got in at $100. Wish i'd gotten in at $12 or $30 like some other posters.
factsahoyAug 13, 2010
Nobody has made money on AAPL "for a long time." See, Apple inexcusably doesn't pay dividends. So the instant you make money on AAPL, you stop making money on it.
That's how stock works when the company denies its OWNERS their share of profits. Apple is not a start-up that needs to sink every penny back into R&D. They have a huge cash reserve that should remain intact, but enough is enough. It's time to start cutting the company's owners in on their share of the profits.
veriixAug 12, 2010
http://digg.com/apple/Valuing_Apple_at_400_per_share_Fortune_Tech/who
stealthspcAug 12, 2010
Really makes you wish you bought Apple shares when they were down to a dollar each.
kellyAug 12, 2010
I think the lowest it ever got was 8 dollars per share
stealthspcAug 12, 2010
It's gone below $2 in the 80's. However, doesn't look like it has ever hit a dollar. I must have mixed it up with a different stock. Looks like we're both wrong.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
no. it was never at $2 or $1.
the lowest it's ever been (in the 1980s) was $14.50.
you have to adjust that chart for splits.
ref;
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=AAPL&a=08&b=7&c=1984&d=07&e=12&f=2010&g=m&z=66&y=264
sangjmoonAug 12, 2010
If this was all there was to it, everybody would be doing it and then it no longer applies as people try to cash in before others do. It's like the observer effect in physics. The act of trying to see the actual state will change the environment changing future trends and predictions.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
so how did Google get to $500 then?
when they were around $100.
sangjmoonAug 12, 2010
How many predicted it and profited from it in terms of real cash in hand?
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
i suggest you learn how the market works.
thatsmyaiboAug 12, 2010
I believe this. As it is, if you took the price of an iPod when it first came out and instead invested that money in the company, it would be worth over 10,000 right now. They will never have a majority market share but it will continue to climb on reports of increased sales for college students and it's influence in Hollywood.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
sgerwel1985Aug 12, 2010
Wait a f**king minute here man... iPad new is like what, 499 when it came out (only 3g then). And this was like, what back in May? So you could buy technically 1 share of apple. It was like what, 260 a share then? And how is that increasing you to $10,000 in that span, you'd technically have lost like 9 bucks on the deal so far. Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
h4rdcor3Aug 12, 2010
learn to read? iPod vs iPad
arschgaudiAug 12, 2010
Pod, you f**knut.
ouzeAug 12, 2010
Except for two things. A.) When the ipod came out, there really weren't any decent MP3 players on the parket - the nomad was the biggest and it wasn't that great. It can be safely argued that was a truly revolutionary product. B.) Apple was worth very little (less then $9), and the Ipod was massively overpriced when it was first released - you know it was $400? To match that kind of scaling, they'd have to release an Ipad for $12,000, which propels the stock to $525,000 a share. Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
arschgaudiAug 12, 2010
Stock analysis Fail
jwdavAug 12, 2010
When the iPad came out, there weren't (and still aren')t any decent "pads" on the market either.
fredfredricksonAug 12, 2010
Bubble
kellyAug 12, 2010
made of steel
arschgaudiAug 12, 2010
No, shiny plastic and brushed aluminum
stradenkoAug 12, 2010
So? Short it.
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
Short the whole Nasdaq
optreniumAug 12, 2010
Somebody forgot a decimal point!
eddiepotatoAug 12, 2010
Any billionaire will tell you that the best way to become rich is by doing what CNN says.
themachine1Aug 12, 2010
The founder of CNN advice is to start out by inheriting several million dollars like he did.
kingmanicAug 12, 2010
Past performance doesn't dictate future returns. Apple may currently be under valued but you can't draw a straight line from where they've been and predict where they will be.
juliusthecatAug 12, 2010
This account has been closed by the user
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Apple is not overvalued, it is actually undervalued right now. It has a growth rate of roughly 30-50% with no saturation in any of its major growth markets. It also has $50/per share CASH.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
kerrigoreAug 12, 2010
If you're just going by current P/E ration, then sure, Apple is over-valued. If you actually take into account future growth, then no, they aren't.
arschgaudiAug 12, 2010
Saturation will occur when the other players start rolling out tablets
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
PEG is 0.96.
that's pretty undervalued there.
bosskeyAug 12, 2010
PEG is really the way to go.
spazattack5000Aug 12, 2010
The best way to get the shares high is to inflate them with false hype like this!
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Please describe the false hype.
factsahoyAug 13, 2010
Didn't someone post a link to it?
deathray2kAug 12, 2010
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.
spazattack5000Aug 12, 2010
Is that like saying Jesus will return tomorrow then going out dressed up as Jesus telling everyone to repent?
theungodAug 12, 2010
Yeah and what if big Stevie leaves/dies? The stock will likely be 10% of that, at best.
ahhellAug 12, 2010
I'm gonna throw a big f**king party that day. I can't wait!!!
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
If you're on the more evil side, you could put long puts on AAPL if you expect him to die anytime soon.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
very close. seeing as 10% of the stock price is cash and apple has no debt,
the lowest it can drop is 90%. and that is if apple says we are not making any more products ever again good night.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Well considering that the stock is currently about 20% cash I don't think you have to worry about that.
smokezzAug 12, 2010
bacon_skoda: You have absolutely no clue how the stock market works do you... The amount of "cash" Apple has doesn't have *ANYTHING* at all to do with how low the stock could plunge if Jobs were to die in a week. Investors WILL bail out of Apple like mad when that happens. They're f**king stupid
If Bill Gates died tomorrow, Microsoft stock would drop 30% even though he's not involved with Microsoft at all... people are stupid.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
what you are talking about is if Steve Job dies, people will pay $2 for a $1 bill.
sorry. not going to happen.
30% is not 90%.
smokezzAug 12, 2010
Like I said, you clearly don't understand the stock market.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
there's only one way to find out.
sabinAug 12, 2010
Smokezz is right, stock price is based entirely on what people are willing to pay for it, if no one wants the stock then it is worth nothing regardless of how much money the company has in its coffers.
barrettandersonAug 12, 2010
I'm sure this guy is smart, and likely actually believes what he's saying in the article, but I always get suspicious when they don't disclose the author's stock holdings. A guy who knows he'll get this much exposure can (slightly) manipulate the price by writing an article like this and make a quick buck.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
I think it's relatively safe to safe to say any person that has optimistic statements about a company's stock is most likely a owner of said stock, and those with dismissive statements are not (or were formerly). It's when it's the opposite of this that really needs to disclosed. IE writing a story saying to sell all your AAPL stock while having no intention of selling your own. Or writing an article to sell your stock while they're buying it.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
it's an opinion. you can be skeptical.
just do your own homework. you will see it'll come close to that number.
geogeerAug 12, 2010
Here's another one:
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/08/05/will-apple-stop-growing-37-a-year/
jshhmrAug 12, 2010
So, the story about Chrome going to Android gets buried, but this Apple story gets promoted at 45?
No Apple bias on digg at all!!
/s
kerrigoreAug 12, 2010
Sometimes I finish typing a comment, realize how utterly stupid it is, and just delete it without posting anything.
aheinzmAug 12, 2010
Sometimes i click "save reply" before I fi
mohrtAug 12, 2010
sometimes I reply for no reason whatsoever.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
I like to reply to comments near the top rather than create my own at the bottom so more people will read it.
1platypusAug 12, 2010
Just put something like:
blah, blah... competition is great for the consumer, blah, blah...
Guaranteed diggs... Except from me, I hate when people get along on the internets.
superkendallAug 12, 2010
If this sounds absurd, stop and think for a second that Apple actually made the tablet market work, and there is NO competition in that space this upcoming Christmas season.
Or about the possibility of Verizon very soon carrying the iPhone.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
What does Verizon not carrying the iPhone have anything to do with Apple's share prices?
kerrigoreAug 12, 2010
Um, most people consider that if Verizon were to carry the iPhone, it would vastly increase the iPhone's market share and position in the US (which is an oft-cited market for market-share).
If the iPhone does better, then stock will go up.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
@Kerri
Great, but my question again. How does Verizon not carrying the iPhone increase Apple's market share as Super seems to be claiming?
hipmanAug 12, 2010
If most people already know it then it's already reflected in the stock.
hipmanAug 12, 2010
If most people already know it then it's already reflected in the stock.
gramathyAug 12, 2010
Are you intentionally misreading what he said?
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
Here's how I read (or probably misread?) his comment.
"This isn't so absurd when you consider that Apple made a competent tablet in a market with no other viable competitors. The upcoming Christmas season will only improve sales further."
That part was unequivocal. But the next portion?
"Or about the possibility of Verizon very soon carrying the iPhone."
Here's my personal issue. I had the impression Verizon would just about never carry the iPhone. But again, this is my opinion. It took me moment to reread that statement, take into account the blog rumors that have sprung up, died, then revived continuously over the months.
These are only rumors and nothing more. Some of us are speculating Verizon may choose to not carry the iPhone and just rely on Android smartphone and future Android tablet sales as years pass.
But again...it may not be a case of misreading his comment as much as it is of simply not understanding the general opinion on how Apple may swing. Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
kerrigoreAug 13, 2010
@zeth006
There are strong and consistent enough rumours about the Verizon phone right now that I'd feel fairly confident in saying it's coming, quite possibly before the year is out. AT&T's exclusivity agreement is over, and we know Apple isn't terribly happy with them. It just makes sense for Apple to branch out to cover more carriers in the US, just as they have in other countries.
ouzeAug 12, 2010
Right, NO competition for this holiday season... except, you know, the big one coming out in October.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HP_Slate_PC
So far as Verizon on iPhone - so what? Android will continue to drink their milkshake.
bosskeyAug 12, 2010
And at least two different surveys documenting how popular Macs are at college this year. Which I believe since the local wifi spots around here are always 50% Mac.
philbertAug 12, 2010
There will be several competitors this holiday season plus the EEEPad is due in January.
garthsAug 12, 2010
Beating Wall Street by buying stock? Wall Street's game is to convince you to buy. They win regardless of whether it goes up or down. They are in the business of buying and selling shares.
This is like saying "Beat the realtors! Buy a house and pay 7% commission, to realtors!"
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
here is a picture of AAPL beating the market the last 3 months:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=^GSPC&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
here is a picture of AAPL beating the market the last 6 months:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=^GSPC&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
here is a picture of AAPL beating the market the last 1 years:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=1y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=^GSPC&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
here is a picture of AAPL beating the market the last 2 years:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=2y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=^GSPC&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
here is a picture of AAPL beating the market the last 5 years:
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=5y&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=^GSPC&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=AAPL&t=my&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=^GSPC&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
amaoicanAug 12, 2010
He ... he doesn't know what it means to beat Wall Street.
garthsAug 12, 2010
Yeah, I know what it commonly means to "beat the street". I just think it is a poor term that misleads.
juliusthecatAug 12, 2010
This account has been closed by the user
kerrigoreAug 12, 2010
Yeah, clearly he has been wrong about Apple stock going up in the past. I mean, it's way down from what it was 5 years ago.
caughtthinkingAug 12, 2010
Predicting the future ALWAYS works!
limaboneAug 12, 2010
I think most savvy investors (of which I will admit I am not one of) will tell you that if you are reading about how high a stock is going to go on the internet...you have already missed the boat.
angelbunnyAug 12, 2010
It depends how much you have to put down. If you put down $1k and it costs $10 to buy and $10 to sell you have to make $20 to come even or 2% which is dangerous if you've already missed the boat. If you put down $100k you need to make 0.02% to come even which is less than a point.
In other words, there is no such thing as missing the boat if you have enough money to begin with. It takes money to make money after all. ;)
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
As much as I dislike Apple (which is alot, I'm a C# developer), I do like making money. I wonder if I should shift some money in to AAPL the article did make some strong points and brought up lots of historic information to back it up.
wastelanderAug 12, 2010
In two years? That's a hell of a long time in technology.
Apple pretty much created the modern smart-phone but the competition is coming on strong. For a long time it has pretty much had the market all to itself, but that is changing. Android is already outselling Apple and Microsoft has yet to release their phone OS (though it will probably be too little too late). The tablet market is also coming on strong. Apple has had an amazing run as of late, but how long will it last?
amaoicanAug 12, 2010
"Android is already outselling Apple"
... So? Different target market.
kerrigoreAug 12, 2010
"Android is already outselling Apple"
Depends on what numbers you look at. They don't all agree.
factsahoyAug 13, 2010
No worse than Apple counting E-books and trial versions as separate "apps".
nourkahAug 12, 2010
people are so stupid. AAPL has 913.56 million shares of outstanding stock. This would value the company at 360+ billion dollars of market price. Worth more than any company on the market. I somehow doubt that a company selling laptops and ipods is going to be worth more money than exxon.
people's ignorance in the way financial markets and money works is actually a huge reason the country is in the mess it's in right now in the first place.
kerrigoreAug 12, 2010
"I somehow doubt that a company selling laptops and ipods is going to be worth more money than exxon."
What about a company selling laptops, desktops, iPods, iPhones, iPads, and various pro-level software suites?
Apple isn't that far behind exxon in market cap, certainly no farther than they were behind microsoft a few years back. It wasn't all that long ago (4 years) that Apple was just passing Dell in market cap at 72 billion. They're now 228 billion. They gained $156 billion in 4 years. They're $80 billion behind exxon, and you don't consider it possible that they will gain that in 2 years?
nourkahAug 12, 2010
Nope.
Balance Sheet
Net Income (in millions)
XON:
2009: 19,280 - 2008: 45,220
AAPL:
2009: 8,235 - 2008: 6,119
Exxon made twice as much as apple in 2009 when it was all said and done, and 7.5 times as much in 2008. I'm not really sure what happened to their revenue in 2009, but I'd say it's safe to assume we continue to rely pretty heavily on oil for the foreseeable future. XON pays twice as much in taxes as AAPL makes every year.
Despite what you may think, 80 BILLION dollars is actually quite a bit of money. How is their market cap going to go up 80 billion dollars in 2 years when they only make around 10 billion a year.
The answer is simply hype, risk and the markets. They have a 18PE ratio as compared to XON's 11PE ratio. This means (sort of) that apple is "worth" 18 times more than they actually make, XON is only "worth" 11 times more than they make. This is the reason why companies were worth so much in the .com bubble. They wouldn't make much money, but the hype would increase their PE ratio to crazy levels, YAHOO! was at 250+ PE if I'm not mistaken around that time. That means people were so dick-crazy for the stock that it sold for way more than it was worth.
XON also paid four sets of dividends to its stock owners. They paid out 8.755 BILLION dollars to their shareholders. They had more extra money lying around with than AAPL even made. Also apple paid exactly ZERO to its shareholders. Sure their stock price can go up, but it's worth exactly nothing until you sell it. And the government LOVES to tax the s**t out of those earnings when you sell it.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
rkahnourkah
the answer to your question is AAPL has growth while XOM doesn't.
"And the government LOVES to tax the s**t out of those earnings when you sell it. "
so what you are saying is we shouldn't make money on our stocks.
kerrigoreAug 13, 2010
@nourkah
Um... nothing you said had any real relevance. Yes, Apple's P/E is higher than a lot of other companies, but that's due to high future expectations of growth. 80 Billion is a lot, but Apple has averaged a 40 billion increase in market cap the last 4 years. If they keep that up, then they will pass exxon in approximately 2 years.
angelbunnyAug 12, 2010
@nourkah
All the more reason to write a stock bot to catch with a short. I've been waiting for a while now to make a lot of cash from aapl. ;)
To bad the new regulations on the stock market limits a stock from jumping more than 10% up or down. The stock freezes if it hits that level. No more making making 30% from 10k in one day.
nourkahAug 12, 2010
a stock bot? this bot would be worth literally trillions of dollars if it could predict the market, that's why one doesn't exist. Look up index funds. historically no manager or company has been able to beat out the market in the very long term. you're dumb
mbhxAug 13, 2010
LQMT was up 72% today.
energyeinsteinAug 12, 2010
You're forgetting about the music market they're in, and the video market?
And mobile applications market they're entering, and who knows what else they have planned to add over the next 10 years.
Closed AccountAug 12, 2010
I remember reading a book titled "DOW 3000" back in the 80's that said the Dow would reach 3000. That was outrageous thinking back then.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
AAPL grew 60% last quarter.
for AAPL to reach $400 based on current valuations, all it needs to do is grow 27% a year for the next two years.
MSFT grew at 22% doing almost nothing.
elamoAug 12, 2010
okay but they were also recovering (like every other company) from the extremely deflated stock prices brought about by the recession. yes, they performed better than some, but the stock increase was not purely based on that performance.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
the 60% i'm referring to is not the stock.
i'm talking revenue.
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
... and then retail consumption fall further in Western societies and there is no one left in the market to buy Apple products, what a shame.
Great Recession = Greatest Depression, there is no coming out of this.
If Apple stocks are at 400 in two years, it will be because of inflation in the overall stock market, and I'm betting gold by then would be over 5000 an ounce, so in real terms (gold, you know, REAL money) the stocks would have declined.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
... and then retail consumption fall further in Western societies....and it did fall, it fell into apple's wallet by +60%.
you should buy some calls on gold stocks.
manjarAug 12, 2010
The article is very well written and contains a well-thought out "fundamental" analysis of AAPl. You don't have to agree with it, and you don't have to like Apple.
sgerwel1985Aug 12, 2010
They make a product, people like the product and they (apple) make money.
ouzeAug 12, 2010
Was this by the author of "Why Google will be at $5,000 a share by 2008"
angelbunnyAug 12, 2010
no
7king7kingAug 12, 2010
still less than an ipad!
herculesAug 12, 2010
And what happens if Steve Jobs dies in there? The stock dropped $10 in a matter of MINUTES when it was only a RUMOR.
Man, I hate working in finance with people who think they actually know WTF they are doing.
tao52nycAug 12, 2010
That worked out REALLY WELL in 2008, when everyone's 401k's (which largely use that exact strategy) became 201k's. Mine still hasn't come back.
LOL at those who still believe in flying blind.
herculesAug 12, 2010
If the economy is down, how do you expect to make money? There's really no way unless you have inside information like some people that shorted everything did, and made a buttload. Everybody lost in 2008. If you invested in the S&P or DOW or whatever, you'd be back up.
If your 401k allocations are not trending all towards bonds by the end of your retirement, then you're an idiot and deserve to lose money because you're not being smart. If you're not near retirement age, who cares what happens during a downturn? It eventually recovers and so does your 401k.
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
Except the Dow topped at over 13000 and it is hovering around the 10,000 mark today, forgive me, but I believe that is still a loss?
Unless you're in the black, or suggesting that the only place to be in any market is in the black, then maybe you should go back to finance school, because the name of the game is profits.
Waiting for indicies to come back up instead of searching for profits sounds like a sure-fire way to lose a s**t load of cash to me.
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
If you wanna invest in an index, invest in the RICI (Rogers International Commodities Index).
Investing in stocks in general has been a toxic business since 2008.
Diversify in commodities to protect your wealth, buy silver to make massive profits (5000%), there is a shortage coming up.
angelbunnyAug 12, 2010
are you talking about mutual funds or etfs? I doubt you know what you're talking about.
1st) The stock market is at 1991 levels right now as an overall. As in, if you bought an etf in 91, went into a coma, and finally woke up right now you'd be sadly disappointed. A savings account would of made more.
2nd) The overall market like the spider is far more volatile than your average stock. Sure there are stocks are more volatile like penny stocks, but the fact is it is far more dangerous and in the long run you have a larger chance of loosing money (or staying flat) than making money.
3rd) With the added risk comes the potential for higher profits. If you're a day trader with lots of cash sitting around then I would recommend investing in the market as an overall. I've you've got less than 4k to put down invest in a company like exxon or appl. Something with the potential to actually make money in the long run.
mcreynoldsAug 12, 2010
Forgive me for crying out loud, the writer is forecasting just about 1 year into the future. And he has given reasons behind his numbers, can't we just wait 1 bloody year to see how it pens out.
If he turns out to be wrong, we can analyze the flows in his arguments++ and hopefully learn a little something.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
angelbunnyAug 12, 2010
I agree and disagree with you. The writer has been forecasting stuff like this for 5 years now and has been completely right so far.
The problem with analysts is they pick a side. They either always seem to be shouting, 'up up up' and others are always forecasting 'down down down'. In other words, he has only been right because he is an up up up type person. Once the market for aapl finally falls he will be wrong and when it keeps going up he will be right.
This is why I never take analysts to seriously when it comes to the market. Most to all are near pointless.
Beep111Aug 12, 2010
This seems kinda like common sense.
"invest your money in companies that you think will make a lot of money"
Okay? That's like stock market 101. Tell me something I couldn't figure out in 30 seconds....
Really this article troubles me, because it just seems like he's making the pitch for uneducated and generally inept people to put their money in a system they only barely understand. If anything, he should be advocating getting the advice of an expert. If you're going on the internet to get financial advice from random people you've never met, I think you already lost your money....
smokezzAug 12, 2010
Points to the oil analysts that constantly predict $200/bbl oil prices in the next 3 months as well...
asus3000Aug 12, 2010
As usual, dump the pump.
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
best advice i've seen all day.
Rigged market capitalism is easy to anticipate when you understand that these skummy reports are trying to sell you something while the big guys move out of the stock, causing a stabilization factor before the stock is sent to the floor.
sgerwel1985Aug 12, 2010
h4rdcor3,
FML, its one of those f**king days bro. Got a bullet you can donate?
veriixAug 12, 2010
I'm from the future and I'm gonna get my time traveling license revoked because of this but I should probably let you know that this doesn't happen...I can't say any more than that but I wouldn't invest right now, trust me. Oh, but start collecting pictures of cats. That's the currency now...errr, future. That's why I'm here.
fredfredricksonAug 12, 2010
If you brought back pictures of cats with you from now, you can haz a lot of cheezburgers. A lot.
taosbobAug 12, 2010
Do your own diligence concerning AAPL, learn about LEAPS, covered calls and selling short puts, follow the company developments daily, learn to screen out the FUD, invest in the dips and you likely will make MMs in this stock I as I have, since 203.
angusmAug 12, 2010
Given the current uncertainties about US finances, I find it hard to believe that _anything_ will be worth $400 in two years time. Although I suppose runaway inflation could do that for you.
bacon_skodaAug 12, 2010
GM just posted $1.3Billion in profit. in the 2nd quarter.
blink4ever87Aug 12, 2010
I bought a s**tload of Apple stock last january for $80 a share when Jobs was out sick. good investment.
deedee316Aug 12, 2010
good time to sell too.
pw378Aug 13, 2010
You probably said "good time to sell" when Apple hit $100, then $140, then $180, then $220, now at $250. The stock may very well sink from here, and you'll claim you were a genius for telling people to sell at $250. I hate people like you.
deedee316Aug 13, 2010
except you're presuming something about someone you know nothing about... and you're wrong, as presumptions about others usually are.
dmannAug 12, 2010
Yeah. I sunk one of my IRA's into apple at 90 back when the market was in the crapper.
I might actually retire for a year or two when I'm old.
philbertAug 12, 2010
I'll believe it when I see it in a full game.
nourkahAug 12, 2010
With 913.56 million shares a $400 stock price would make them the biggest company in the US, with a market cap of 360 billion dollars. That puts them currently 80 billion dollars short of that market cap. How are they going to increase 80 billion in two years, while making less than 10 billion a year?
They might get the market cap, but the company is not going to be "worth" that much. That reason that Apple stock cost so much is because of the risk factor. They are SO risky, that their stock is worth way more than it "should" be. With a beta of 1.43 they follow the relative path of the market, but do it in a much more pronounced way. Buying a lot of apple stock is risky, and STUPID, unless you diversify it properly.
NOOBS
lodcrappoAug 13, 2010
This account has been closed by the user
jfujitaAug 13, 2010
When articles like this start coming out its time to sell.