Why Our Brains Do Not Intuitively Grasp Probabilities: Scien

sciam.com — "Folk numeracy is our natural tendency to misperceive and miscalculate probabilities, to think anecdotally instead of statistically, and to focus on and remember short-term trends and small-number runs. We notice a short stretch of cool days and ignore the long-term global-warming trend. We note with consternation the recent downturn in the housing Aug 29, 2008 View in Crawl 4