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May 16, 2007View in Crawl 4
Yeah, I can just see the announcement now, "Don't worry you guys, us Saudis have a s**t-load of oil so you won't run out for a thousand years".Oh, now that'll hold the price of oil down, won't it?And do try to keep your excitement at the prospect of a "Mad Max" world in check, will you?
This is a big deal, since the entire infrastructure of consumer society is dependent on cheap, plentiful oil in order to get products to purchasers all the way down the supply chain. If oil is no longer cheap and plentiful then that entire model falls apart, along with the society that is dependent on the continuation of that model. What will happen if the supply chain that keeps avocados and tomatoes (grown in Mexico or California) in a suburban supermarket collapses due to a massive increase in oil prices? There will be no more tomatoes or avocados available in the suburb supplied by that supermarket, except at an extremely high cost since the suburb is incapable of growing its own. Now expand that shortage of tomatoes and avocados to include every single consumer good that is not grown or manufactured within the immediate boundaries of that suburb and you begin to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. The societal result of that degree of product shortage should be frighteningly evident.
Does anyone remember that Stephen King novel, "The Langoliers"? Where the people on the plane are trapped in a kind of limbo as these time-devouring monsters show up to eat the past?That's what Peak Oil "critics" are - Langoliers.They get us all worked up, eating away at our precious time and resources when we give them detailed rebuttals, despite the fact that their entire arguments are based upon false assumptions or willful ignorance.The bottom line is that even if there was UNLIMITED petroleum in the ground to extract, it is one of the most unsustainable, environmentally destructive practices known to man and is responsible for countless human rights abuses around the globe. That alone is reason enough to find alternatives to the current system. Any time you waste with these Langoliers trying to debate them about economics is time wasted where real, positive change could take place. And it's also time you could spend lessening your own petroleum consumption so that they can't hide behind the smokescreen of "hypocrisy" while you're trying to educate others. To this end, I am in year two of my journey toward total sustainability, which you can follow at my website:<a class="user" href="http://www.organicreform.org">http://www.organicreform.org</a>If you want the Cliff's notes version, I wrote a short essay titled "An Inside Job" that breaks down for you what I'm doing to make those changes in my own life. You can find it here:<a class="user" href="http://organicreform.blogspot.com/2007/05/inside-job.html">http://organicreform.blogspot.com/2007/05/inside-job.html</a>Peace and health,"Let your life be a counter friction to stop the machine. What I have to do is to see, at any rate, that I do not lend myself to the wrong which I condemn."-Henry David Thoreau-
The only solution in the long term is solar energy, and fuels synthesized via solar energy (which include biodiesel).In the span of 15 minutes, the sun exposes the earth with more energy than we use in an entire year. Much of this is used to power life on earth, but there is more than enough to fulfill our energy needs. The challenges we have are storage of the energy for use when the sun isn't shining. Plant based fuels are one storage method, batteries are another. Definitely, more research needs to be done, but at the same time, we spend more money researching and developing petroleum technologies than we do solar. In light of having passed peak-oil, we ought to shift our priorities.I highly recommend these book examining the issues surrounding solar power. <a class="user" href="http://www.hermannscheer.de/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=5&Itemid=7">http://www.hermannscheer.de/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=5&Itemid=7</a>Solar power can definitely supply all our energy needs. This is not to say that there aren't challenges that need to be addressed, but considering how we've spent billions upon billions on research for technology like fusion reactors which are still four decades off (optimistic estimate), which haven't yet yielded anything practical, I think the money could be better spent harnessing the fusion power already being generated by the sun.
You might want to do the arithmetic and figure out how many square miles or kilometers of solar cells it would take to equal, just equal, the electrical output of the U.S. It's a shockingly large number and all the hand-waving from the PV crowd won't change it. You don't have to take my word for it. Just go and find some electrical power production figures from whatever reasonably authoritative source you care to accept and the power output of solar cells by the square unit of measure you prefer and do the arithmetic.The number you get, while pretty fantastic, isn't enough to *replace* electrical power production. You can't do that until power storage facilities are up to the task of storing the power and, you've got to increase the area of solar cells above immediate requirements so you have something to go into that storage facility.Like I stated, you don't have to take my word for any of this. Do the relatively simple arithmetic yourself. Then you don't have to accept on faith the words of the author or you'll see for yourself how dishonest some of these folks are.
From the comments:"What surprises me is that those who wring their hands the most about running out of oil are the ones who yell the loudest about alternative fuels. If you force conservation and a restriction on energy sources you are actually fighting against alternative fuels and energy sources. Free up the oil and let it flow. Allow companies to exploit their products to maximum efficiency. This is when you will see energy alternatives."Dead f**king on. If we want to move on to alternative sources we have to allow the consumption of the current sources or we'll never be forced to move on! This is how we have progressed as a race for 1000s of years! It seemed to work pretty good so far. If you honestly believe that one day the oil will run out and we won't have an alternative and we'll freeze to death, run out of money, fire will reign from the sky or just instantly die, you are a moron.
arpadMay 17, 2007
Yeah, I can just see the announcement now, "Don't worry you guys, us Saudis have a s**t-load of oil so you won't run out for a thousand years".Oh, now that'll hold the price of oil down, won't it?And do try to keep your excitement at the prospect of a "Mad Max" world in check, will you?
konketsuMay 17, 2007
This is a big deal, since the entire infrastructure of consumer society is dependent on cheap, plentiful oil in order to get products to purchasers all the way down the supply chain. If oil is no longer cheap and plentiful then that entire model falls apart, along with the society that is dependent on the continuation of that model. What will happen if the supply chain that keeps avocados and tomatoes (grown in Mexico or California) in a suburban supermarket collapses due to a massive increase in oil prices? There will be no more tomatoes or avocados available in the suburb supplied by that supermarket, except at an extremely high cost since the suburb is incapable of growing its own. Now expand that shortage of tomatoes and avocados to include every single consumer good that is not grown or manufactured within the immediate boundaries of that suburb and you begin to appreciate the magnitude of the problem. The societal result of that degree of product shortage should be frighteningly evident.
zovresMay 17, 2007
why don't you take a hummer and shove it up your ass
Closed AccountMay 17, 2007
Does anyone remember that Stephen King novel, "The Langoliers"? Where the people on the plane are trapped in a kind of limbo as these time-devouring monsters show up to eat the past?That's what Peak Oil "critics" are - Langoliers.They get us all worked up, eating away at our precious time and resources when we give them detailed rebuttals, despite the fact that their entire arguments are based upon false assumptions or willful ignorance.The bottom line is that even if there was UNLIMITED petroleum in the ground to extract, it is one of the most unsustainable, environmentally destructive practices known to man and is responsible for countless human rights abuses around the globe. That alone is reason enough to find alternatives to the current system. Any time you waste with these Langoliers trying to debate them about economics is time wasted where real, positive change could take place. And it's also time you could spend lessening your own petroleum consumption so that they can't hide behind the smokescreen of "hypocrisy" while you're trying to educate others. To this end, I am in year two of my journey toward total sustainability, which you can follow at my website:<a class="user" href="http://www.organicreform.org">http://www.organicreform.org</a>If you want the Cliff's notes version, I wrote a short essay titled "An Inside Job" that breaks down for you what I'm doing to make those changes in my own life. You can find it here:<a class="user" href="http://organicreform.blogspot.com/2007/05/inside-job.html">http://organicreform.blogspot.com/2007/05/inside-job.html</a>Peace and health,"Let your life be a counter friction to stop the machine. What I have to do is to see, at any rate, that I do not lend myself to the wrong which I condemn."-Henry David Thoreau-
berkanaMay 17, 2007
The only solution in the long term is solar energy, and fuels synthesized via solar energy (which include biodiesel).In the span of 15 minutes, the sun exposes the earth with more energy than we use in an entire year. Much of this is used to power life on earth, but there is more than enough to fulfill our energy needs. The challenges we have are storage of the energy for use when the sun isn't shining. Plant based fuels are one storage method, batteries are another. Definitely, more research needs to be done, but at the same time, we spend more money researching and developing petroleum technologies than we do solar. In light of having passed peak-oil, we ought to shift our priorities.I highly recommend these book examining the issues surrounding solar power. <a class="user" href="http://www.hermannscheer.de/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=5&Itemid=7">http://www.hermannscheer.de/en/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=5&Itemid=7</a>Solar power can definitely supply all our energy needs. This is not to say that there aren't challenges that need to be addressed, but considering how we've spent billions upon billions on research for technology like fusion reactors which are still four decades off (optimistic estimate), which haven't yet yielded anything practical, I think the money could be better spent harnessing the fusion power already being generated by the sun.
ghostcowMay 17, 2007
Biodiesel is not the answer, educate yourself: <a class="user" href="http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/">http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/</a>
arpadMay 18, 2007
You might want to do the arithmetic and figure out how many square miles or kilometers of solar cells it would take to equal, just equal, the electrical output of the U.S. It's a shockingly large number and all the hand-waving from the PV crowd won't change it. You don't have to take my word for it. Just go and find some electrical power production figures from whatever reasonably authoritative source you care to accept and the power output of solar cells by the square unit of measure you prefer and do the arithmetic.The number you get, while pretty fantastic, isn't enough to *replace* electrical power production. You can't do that until power storage facilities are up to the task of storing the power and, you've got to increase the area of solar cells above immediate requirements so you have something to go into that storage facility.Like I stated, you don't have to take my word for any of this. Do the relatively simple arithmetic yourself. Then you don't have to accept on faith the words of the author or you'll see for yourself how dishonest some of these folks are.
enforcerpsuMay 18, 2007
From the comments:"What surprises me is that those who wring their hands the most about running out of oil are the ones who yell the loudest about alternative fuels. If you force conservation and a restriction on energy sources you are actually fighting against alternative fuels and energy sources. Free up the oil and let it flow. Allow companies to exploit their products to maximum efficiency. This is when you will see energy alternatives."Dead f**king on. If we want to move on to alternative sources we have to allow the consumption of the current sources or we'll never be forced to move on! This is how we have progressed as a race for 1000s of years! It seemed to work pretty good so far. If you honestly believe that one day the oil will run out and we won't have an alternative and we'll freeze to death, run out of money, fire will reign from the sky or just instantly die, you are a moron.