Humans Predicted to Contact Extraterrestrial Civilization

dailygalaxy.com — Some leading astronomers are quite confident that mankind will make contact with intelligent alien life within two decades. The search for extraterrestrial life will leap forward next year when NASA launches the Kepler space telescope. Jul 29, 2008 View in Crawl 4

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kurejibitch Jul 30, 2008

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Wish I could digg you up a few more times. Completely agree with everything you've said.

jowsithm Jul 30, 2008

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I'm not doubting you in any way, but why are you so sure? Do you know something the rest of us don't? Please share./curious

fortycaliber Jul 30, 2008

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There is a fundamental problem with trying to communicate with alien life.We will use an arbitrary distance of just 500 light years between Sol and the "Alien" star.Let's pretend that SETI recieves a rhythmic, numerical transmission that repeats in a geometric fashion using prime numbers and X-Y-Z coordinates. Everyone says (again) WOW! and the proof that alien life -intelligent alien life- exists! Great. now what?We then broadcast a message back that responds, in kind, to that mathematical transmission. Great. now what?Now what? We wait. We wait and wait and wait and wait. Nothing happens. EVER.Now let's look at the situation from the alien side:Alien SETI decides that after years of searching, this distant solar system contains a rocky body likely to contain life. The send a radio transmission towards that area in space. The message is a rhythmic, numerical transmission that repeats in a geometric fashion using prime numbers and X-Y-Z coordinates. They wait and wait and wait and wait. Nothing happens.Well, something happens, 500 years later we recieve that message and transmit back. 500 years later, the alien life recieves that message. That's a 1,000 year round trip for the galaxy's most boring long-distance phone call.So what's the problem?The problem is that we just developed meaningful radio communication about 110 years ago. We built the Aricebo Dish in 1963 (not the first, but the largest and most powerful.) This means that if we received a message now, then the sender is at least 400 years ahead of us in technology. Think about what we were doing 500 years ago? We were still arguing over the model of our solar system! In response, we transmit back. 500 years later they get a message. They are now 1000 years advanced past their original transmission and we are still 400 years behind them (at least.) We are the same to them as us looking at our 1500 AD counterparts are to us now: IT would be like looking at a zoo of idiots... promising idiots, but idiots none-the less.The reverse would apply if we sent the original message: We would be at least 400 years behind them.The problem doesn't end there. Since we have been "civilized' for at least 5000 years and only developed radio comm within the past (let's round) 100 years, the above scenario depends upon the aliens following the same tech track that we did. It's possible that they civilized, historically, a full 1000 before us, meaning that they are now 1400 years ahead of us. What were we doing 1400 years ago? The Norse were caliming Brittania, Christianity was just gaining a foothold, the Merovingians were peaking, Sailing was becmoing a science, The concept of steel was amazing (and this was all in Europe.) American Indians were developing agriculture, somewhat and the height of American technology was the Incan Empire.They may also civilize well after us and in that case, we may never hear them at all... and since we are listening to more than we send, then we may be missing out on up-and-coming ET life.All this means that even if they were on our track of technology, they would be centuries ahead of us in tech. And that's a BIG "IF."Now consider if they were 1500 LY away...

pnutz Jul 30, 2008