sfgate.com— Is Boom 2.0 a prelude to Bust 2.0? Or are those entrepreneurs and venture capitalists scarred by their experiences last time around losing out because they are acting out of an abundance of caution?
Jul 23, 2006View in Crawl 4
when eventually as all the major services get more consolidated, there just won't be as much growth in new web sites. Certain services may vie for number one, but we aren't going to see the overnight start-ups as much. I don't think it will bust, there just won't be as much money in it.
I totally agree with your post - though I dont see a way out of it.Right now I have a townhome in SJ that was 200K in 1997 - its 600K now. I was lucky - I have been here for 10 years have an income of nearly 200K and can barely afford to live in the valley.The thing with this market is that nobody wants to admit this and get out. A friend of mine has been buying places in texas and idaho - which is a good option because the places there are affordable. He can even make 100 positive cash flow on these places.The problem is that you cant make a good income in those places - so one is stuck here.I plan on staying here and building/buying my "dream home" in some other place. although this is what others are planning on as well. An example of this process already matured can be seen in places like Crystal bay (lake tahoe), branson (missouri? or wisconsin?), and places in montana.These places were very nice, and affordable. Celebrities bought lots of land and built out huge houses in these small areas for their "privacy" - this drove up the general cost of houses there but the ecomomy hasnt changed.all that said - people including myself are just hoping that this bust is 5 to 10 years out and we have time to get out of the valley with some money.
It's kinda like "Web 1.0" (and bare in mind that term almost makes me vomit).Instead of having one million web pages having nothing but links and no actual content, we now have 1 billion blogs linking to other blogs and having no actual content.Oh. Shut up about my site already :P
hackwrenchJul 23, 2006
With all the opportunities that abound, they can afford to "miss out".
brahmaJul 24, 2006
Why is @snide getting buried. Is it because he is trying to promote his business here? His analysis is correct though..
towskiJul 24, 2006
when eventually as all the major services get more consolidated, there just won't be as much growth in new web sites. Certain services may vie for number one, but we aren't going to see the overnight start-ups as much. I don't think it will bust, there just won't be as much money in it.
speelJul 24, 2006
True true.
phluxJul 24, 2006
I totally agree with your post - though I dont see a way out of it.Right now I have a townhome in SJ that was 200K in 1997 - its 600K now. I was lucky - I have been here for 10 years have an income of nearly 200K and can barely afford to live in the valley.The thing with this market is that nobody wants to admit this and get out. A friend of mine has been buying places in texas and idaho - which is a good option because the places there are affordable. He can even make 100 positive cash flow on these places.The problem is that you cant make a good income in those places - so one is stuck here.I plan on staying here and building/buying my "dream home" in some other place. although this is what others are planning on as well. An example of this process already matured can be seen in places like Crystal bay (lake tahoe), branson (missouri? or wisconsin?), and places in montana.These places were very nice, and affordable. Celebrities bought lots of land and built out huge houses in these small areas for their "privacy" - this drove up the general cost of houses there but the ecomomy hasnt changed.all that said - people including myself are just hoping that this bust is 5 to 10 years out and we have time to get out of the valley with some money.
xtheeliminatorJul 24, 2006
From what I'm reading from your economic figures, the correct question to ask is whether we're going to see 'Stagflation 2.0.'
upfrontfanaticJul 24, 2006
It's kinda like "Web 1.0" (and bare in mind that term almost makes me vomit).Instead of having one million web pages having nothing but links and no actual content, we now have 1 billion blogs linking to other blogs and having no actual content.Oh. Shut up about my site already :P
willinJul 25, 2006
"Oh, and they're mostly free. How many suits are willing to build a business model around THAT idea?" Clearly you don't remember the last bubble.