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johnnysoftwareJul 11, 2010
Or you can just look at a Gulf Stream ocean current map and see that the Gulf Stream goes up along the Atlantic Ocean coastline of the US about halfway or more, before moving East and heading roughly for the UK. Just exactly the opposite the path that the "New World" pilgrims and conquistadors took several hundred years ago.
It would be pretty hard to imagine the gargantuan amounts of oil spewing out of the Gulf of Mexico's ocean floor would not be heading up the US east coast if you ever bothered to look at the ocean current maps. Having a super computer confirm the "possibility" just reaffirms what seems intuitively obvious.
vitriolandangstJul 12, 2010
Yes, the MAP would be pretty easy -- but this is a SUPER computer.
Now the press can admit what everybody else with a brain stem that is being used has already figured out -- wait for it; look shocked!
"Nobody could have predicted that a offshore drilling could put oil in the worlds oceans -- NOBODY!"
/Greenpeace and the Sierra club predicting this since 1980.
useraccessJul 12, 2010
But wait, why do we care? BP is telling the media, who is telling me, that this is no big deal.
burrduggJul 12, 2010
You are both SUPER idiots. But you both have impressive hindsight 20/20 of what is intuitively obvious only after the fact, I give you that.
I bet predicting the weather with supercomputer is a waste of time too? Because you can see obviously well for yourself when it is going to rain outdoor the next day.
homercles337Jul 12, 2010
There are FAR more variables at play here than just a "current map."
rrwestJul 13, 2010
BS.
Navigators have been following the Gulf Stream for centuries and did not need a supercomputer or high-tech science to know that it flows eastward. Just as the oil spill will.
Keep your 21st century chauvinism to yourself.
caseycooldJul 12, 2010
And with your piece of paper map you know exactly how fast it will travel, and have a thorough understanding of fluid mechanics?
/science, it works
rrwestJul 13, 2010
As I mentioned above, navigators have been using the Gulf Stream for centuries and did not have the luxury of advanced science or mathematics to realize that the water flows back to Europe and Africa.
I don't suppose the oil spill will have too much trouble using it as well. Or does it suddenly need a scientist's permission to do that?
m0busJul 12, 2010
For all of the ways we've exploited the world, this has always seemed like a fair retribution that we drown in the oil that we've raped from the planet. God help us.
vitriolandangstJul 12, 2010
All these "I know science stuff" above -- No, it doesn't require a study in fluid mechanics, it doesn't require a super computer, and YES, people predicted this.
You look at the map of the gulf stream and whatever fluid you put in that is going to go all those places -- they are DOWNSTREAM of the gulf.
Now, if the Oil Gusher only lasted 3 months -- THEN, you might need to know fluid dynamics and at what season the current switches this way and that. But since it will be running at least a year -- if not 30 (as other BP gushers in Africa that were abandoned have been running) -- we KNOW it will get everywhere the gulf stream does.
>> Another prediction that does not require a super computer;
Current efforts will fail to stop the leak.
Here's what I figured with the 40,000+ PSI difference over a mile down; the chances of finding the original hole to create a relief well, are slimmer than 50%. When they tried to pump mud into it to use the weight to shut down the flow -- they basically sandblasted the entire inside of the pipe.
ergo; no "top hat" design can plug what is now an open oil fault line. You are going to get leaks 20 miles away.
The ONLY idea I can think of now is either create a cover that is 20 miles in diameter or create a series perpendicular bore holes around the original column and use explosives to collapse the entire region, hoping that two miles deep of compressed earth can stop it. BP doesn't want to do either because that is going to cost LOTS. But nothing else is going to work AFAIK.
And I predict many will call me full of crap and nonetheless, in 6 months I will be proven right -- while these same people say; "Nobody could have predicted X, Y and Z." That's because all these Nobody's with functional brains get ignored, while fools get promoted in this Brave New World.
burrduggJul 12, 2010
You have this all figured out, don't you? Now do a real time rendering of your predictions in paper cut-outs on your paper map, move the little pieces of paper around on the map like a puppet show for kids. Your method will be so much more accurate and efficient than those scientists and their lousy supercomputers.
vitriolandangstJul 13, 2010
burrdugg -- you aren't getting the point; we don't have VALID DATA to work from -- so a super computer or any computer will give you an elegant piece of nonsense.
A ROUGH estimate of the size of the bore in the earth with PSI is going to probably be a lot more accurate than the "roses and ponies" crap that BP has fed the willing press agents. So maybe 500,000 barrels a day over about 20 miles from the bottom of the Gulf.
Then follow the gulf stream -- it's ALL going to get oiled up down stream of that. How much oil totally depends on the garden hose vs. the gusher volume.
fastback7Jul 12, 2010
Breaking News, super computer predicts that all living things die!
snaxieJul 12, 2010
Captain Jack Harkness....
Closed AccountJul 12, 2010
i think you mean, as time increases, the probability of death approaches 1
zeexJul 12, 2010
that's not a very human thing to say.....Mr....Roboto!! Oh yeah i got you there!! Your digital shifty eyes will never fool me!! (!!!!)
emjaymjJul 12, 2010
you need an actual limit for limits
hokie47Jul 12, 2010
While not great I really don't think the oil will be that bad by the time it hits the Atlantic because it will be mostly spread out by then.
captininsanityJul 12, 2010
I would like to think so, or at least that the US East coast is so polluted it doesn't matter. Hopefully the oil is dispersed well by then, and doesn't have that dispersant crap in it by then.
vitriolandangstJul 12, 2010
Well yeah -- it gets diluted.
But that's on top of the billions of gallons of diluted crap we spew every year.
And the CO2 dissolved in the ocean.
Death by a thousand cuts. No ONE source will be at fault -- but eventually, the Camel's back will be broken by the last straw.
seltaeb4Jul 12, 2010
IBM has a place at Rio Rancho Estates?
This investment is looking better all the time.
Closed AccountJul 12, 2010
So 3,500 quad core processors can accurately determine the amount of oil that will flow from the "BP fountain of Oil" given the human intervention with the new cap that's being fitted? Maybe it's just me but aren't they putting a little too much into the constant which they most likely set as the flow of oil leaking into the ocean?Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
emjaymjJul 12, 2010
That's the point. "If we don't get this under control, this is what will happen..." But I'm sure they're working on various scenarios as well, many of which are small events which probably only have a small or negligible effect on where the oil ends up.
That said, it's impossible, even for a supercomputer, to know how the cap is going to fare. There are just too many human-dependent variables at this point in time to really come up with a useful prediction of the flow rate once the cap goes on. Once it DOES go on and we get a better idea, then I'm sure they'll switch over to scenarios using the adjusted flow rate.
But I think you're giving way too much weight to what BP has said. No "promising" idea of theirs has worked so far. They're going to have a bigger cap... with TWO boats siphoning oil I believe. It really just looks to me now like they're intent on salvaging as much of the oil as they can until the government steps in and takes over. What happens if a massive hurricane hits the boats? I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on these things, but given BP's track record so far, refusal to try out legitimate kill strategies (effectively ruining the well), and the fact that this is not only a temporary solution but an uncertain one at best, I'm really not going to hold my breath.
sabinJul 13, 2010
With that many cores you could calculate several thousand possible outcomes and their probabilities of occurring. You don't seriously think they ran only one simulation with one set of variables and then said "this is how its going to happen", do you?
sabinJul 13, 2010
I stand corrected.
"The first six simulations alone sucked up over 250,000 hours of computer time using the Parallel Ocean program, a 3-D ocean circulation model design at Los Alamos National Laboratory."
With 14000 cores this still puts it at about 3 realtime hours per simulation. Still enough time for them to have run a couple hundred though.
eorandayJul 12, 2010
I'm 44 so my apologies for the adolescent post but... DUH!
We need a super computer to point out what 5th grade science classes have made obvious?
vitriolandangstJul 12, 2010
I'm 45 and I'm old enough to know that; "Yes, yes we do."
It provides cover for people on TV who have been fighting common sense for decades to get that sweet 7 figure salary.
zaeboesJul 12, 2010
I'm a 20 year old Computer Science Major, so I would like to say STFU.
I want my 7 figure salary someday too!
chromavitaJul 12, 2010
You old fogies just don't understand computer technologies!
eorandayJul 12, 2010
We understand it sonny. I started coding on a TRS-80 and Commodore 64 back in the early 80's. (can you say "assembly?") We just don't understand why anyone would need a supercomputer to figure this out..
Now get off my lawn!
emjaymjJul 12, 2010
I imagine the supercomputer has figured out and is working on much more precise data as well. Like where the oil will be spread at any given time, exactly where the oil will eventually end up even if the leak ends up being fixed at the approximate dates for the cap or the relief wells, etc.
Just because it's all the article mentioned doesn't mean that's all it's doing, though it DOES make the article rather pointless.
zaeboesJul 13, 2010
@that old guy
I have to do assembly for my major. Not 100% sure as to why, but it is interesting all the same.
vitriolandangstJul 12, 2010
Wow, I don't even have a Quad-core and I predicted exactly the same thing as this computer.
High-density computational structures must think alike.
Of course, I probably have a better "Garbage In" filter than BP and the Media, so I'm working with better data; 16 inch pipe, 40,000+ PSI and the normal route of the Gulf Stream -- this should end up in the Mediterranean in a couple years as well. Take THAT super computer.
mysticaloneJul 12, 2010
So this is how we killed ourselves. I always thought it was going to be that comet is space that would kill us off. That or global warming people were right and polar caps would melt and drown us.
Time to get the ol' bucket list out.
#1 threesome with japanese twins
scuba7183Jul 12, 2010
Twins, Basil, twins!
caseycooldJul 12, 2010
I've always wondered what the rest of that list looks like...
joe8packJul 12, 2010
The more important factor, is not where the oil goes, but how the dissolved oil produced by use of underwater detergents, travels and impacts the food chain as it travels. Is this dissolved oil destroying the plankton and other oxygen producing plants in the ocean?
For extra points, what is the point of having a super computer that can predict or track a massive oil spill, if such spills are merely considered the cost of doing business, and how many barrels of oil does such a supercomputer consume in the form of power input to reach its conclusions? In other words how much oil does it take to find out where the spilled oil is bound?
dkrenderJul 12, 2010
But will it run Crysis?
slashdotordiggJul 12, 2010
sorry they won't. it's not that it lacks computing power but there are Oil leaking right now.
Closed AccountJul 12, 2010
It could run Crysis 10.
thomn8rJul 12, 2010
How about Lotus 1-2-3?
spatialtimeJul 12, 2010
Nice experimental data to compare with the numerical results of the super computer. Time will tell if the numerical model correlates well with the experimental data.
zephyrninetyJul 12, 2010
This was all a huge plan to kill the cast of Jersey Shore.
senseimackJul 12, 2010
Everyone Needs to get to the Beach Before its No Beach to get to... Intel Supercomputer Predicts Gulf Spill Atlantic Bound. =/ Who wants to go? =[...
fastback7Jul 12, 2010
Really, dug my first post down. Why? Because I did not go on and on about what I learned about ocean currents in the third grade. Okay. Her it goes. I know a way to stop the oil from moving into the Atlantic ocean and moving further North. We melt all of the ice on Greenland thereby decreasing the salinity of the northern waters, thus eliminating the driving force behind the gulf current. Easy, who cares if this would start a global ice age.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
caseycooldJul 12, 2010
Here*
sabinJul 13, 2010
I look forward to the 40 days of rain.
rxbudianJul 12, 2010
So I'm guessing that the AMD Supercomputer didn't?
zaeboesJul 12, 2010
The AMD Supercomputer was using much newer processors because they aren't nearly as expensive to stay current!
h3110Jul 12, 2010
3500 quad core processors? THAT IS OVER 9000 CORES!
oxidaneJul 12, 2010
14000 cores.
h3110Jul 12, 2010
??? THAT IS OVER 9000 CORES!
musntsurfatworkJul 13, 2010
3500 quad core processors.
slashdotordiggJul 12, 2010
To all those comments that say "supercomputer? are you kidding me?"
They are just "borrowing" computation time. also all kinds of natural events are happening in the ocean and it's necessary to have the game plan, instead of just chasing after the spill.
sabinJul 13, 2010
Intel researchers on Intel equipment are probably not borrowing computer time. Normally you would be right but it helps to RTFA.
slashdotordiggJul 13, 2010
ok, i RTFA. but did you?
<quote>
The first six simulations alone **sucked up** over 250,000 hours of computer time using the Parallel Ocean program.
<quote2>
From these simulations we can say with a high degree of certainty that it is very likely sometime in the next six months that oil from this spill will get into the Atlantic," said oceanographer Synte Peac**k of the *****NCAR*****, who is running the project
MarvelintheSkyJul 12, 2010
My home town is on the gulf near Corpus Christi... everything points to the Texas gulf coast being spared but there is really no such thing. Our super-dependency is going to negatively impact every life that depends on the gulf... and soon to be Atlantic coast.
Closed AccountJul 12, 2010
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konhachiJul 12, 2010
"Gulf Spill to replace entire Ocean with oil."
oxidaneJul 12, 2010
id be curious to see and compare the real-life results to this.
zombiegeezusJul 12, 2010
dammit! all my plans for a 3499 core supercomputer are ruined!
youngcebJul 12, 2010
Paul predicts spain championship, i think we know who wins
rrwestJul 13, 2010
Way to go, people.
Have you ever used a hammer to push in a thumb tack?
When the spill first happened (actually it was a blow-out, but let's not quibble), I immediately said to myself that it will travel with the Gulf Stream and circulate around the Caribbean a bit, contaminating some pristine beaches in Florida and other resort areas like Barbados, the Bahamas and Bermuda, then travel east toward Europe and parts of north Africa. Navigators have use the Gulf Stream for centuries to sail back to those continents without the need for supercomputers or advanced knowledge of hydrodynamics and fluid dynamics.
I suspect that the oil spill will have an equally easy time moving east. Oil spills do not need "scientific permission" to do what comes naturally. And they obviously can do it without using a supercomputer.
ascoltiJul 14, 2010
Lets hope it's not running the same predictive system that the Met. Office UK ran to predict the ash cloud from the Icelandic volcano. Because that was totally inaccurate and just made them look like complete idiots; justifiably.