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chrisvazquez1Dec 26, 2010
Well if they don't update their streaming service more often, I'll probably cancel my service. Oh, and Netflix, please stop using the atrocity that is Microsoft Silverlight. I keep getting the DRM error when trying to stream to my Macbook.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
kingofallpediaDec 26, 2010
Pretty sure your MacBook is the real atrocity. I've not had a single issue w/ the Silverlight interface.
phenolicDec 26, 2010
Agreed. I've been running on two Macbook Pros and another Macbook and have never had an issue (oh, plus now have boxee on a Mini running Netflix). Since Netflix went to Silverlight, the quality has been noticeably improved. I've never had a DRM issue, you may want to contact Apple (@chris).
chrisvazquez1Dec 27, 2010
It was simply a corrupt Silverlight plist file that happened because I migrated my things from my old Macbook to a new Macbook Pro. I just trashed it and voila. It's something that could have been avoided if Silverlight was programmed to overwrite corrupt preference files.
@kingofallpedia Do me a favor and STFU. I wasn't trying to start a fanboi flame war. I like paying for overpriced/outdated pretty hardware that works better than cheaper/newer hardware. I personally prefer OSX. Now if you like spending $600 on a piece of s**t laptop that falls apart after 9 months and has a s**tty warranty then more power to you.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
WreckedEmDec 27, 2010
Silverlight on a Mac > iTunes on Windows
addiktionDec 26, 2010
I'm not sure the author understands what Netflix is...
FTA: "And where will Netflix have an advantage? Will they get better deals from movie studios and TV companies than Apple, Google, Hulu or Amazon? If so, why? If I want to download, say, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows"—or "Casablanca"—why should I go to Netflix.com rather than anywhere else?"
Uhm.. you rent a DVD from Netflix or watch it via Instant Watch. No downloading, only streaming or snail mail son. The difference? Well I don't have to purchase a $25 dollar Blu Ray movie and I can technically watch 8-10 new movies a month via mail and many other selections via instant watch. It sure beats a cable box that goes for $50+.
immunofortDec 26, 2010
You do know that streaming is downloading right?
dauntless1Dec 26, 2010
Um, no, it's a form of downloading, just as ALL internet traffic is, but it is not downloading in the traditional sense, not even close.
immunofortDec 26, 2010
Yes I know streaming is a form of downloading, but its pretty stupid to say "streaming is not downloading" the only difference is that you can't save the videos to your hard drive.
So actually, it is pretty close.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
norman619Dec 26, 2010
Well you can save streamed vids to your hard drive. People do it all the time with Youtube. It just takes some special application to do. Don't know if anyone had bothered to make a grabber for Netflix streams though.
enantiodromiaDec 26, 2010
You aren't 'saving' a stream when you download a youtube file, you are making a direct request for the video file's URI and downloading it. I doubt Netflix has a bunch of .mpeg or .avi files on a database waiting for someone to discover how to download them direct.
An example of saving a stream would be from over the air HD content, when people cache the Transport Stream to a hard drive, which is not at all the intended use of the cable card.
norman619Dec 27, 2010
Bulls**t. You obviously have no clue how this works. Before your computer can display anything for you it is stored.
lilrabbit129Dec 26, 2010
In this context there's a pretty big difference between streaming and downloading. About as big a difference as reading a book at the library vs checking it out and taking it home.
immunofortDec 27, 2010
"No downloading, only streaming or snail mail"
His argument is for why Netflix is a good service. His use of the word downloading refers to bandwidth rather than saving the video onto a computer, otherwise why would he bring it up? Downloading onto the computer would actually be better than streaming because then you can watch it again. Therefore if by download, he was referring to the ability of saving it onto the computer then it would actually be a negative point to his argument.
criminalmindedDec 26, 2010
There's also a wider variety of formats available when you download versus instant watch. That's probably it's biggest fault right now.
ZomgeeeDec 27, 2010
you're an idiot.
immunofortDec 27, 2010
You're a retard.
hipmanDec 26, 2010
Man talk about splitting hairs.Or atoms, in this case.
arschgaudiDec 26, 2010
Bits and bytes actually
enantiodromiaDec 26, 2010
datagrams actually
norman619Dec 26, 2010
You are being dugg up by idiots. Streaming is downloading. If your connection sucks the experience is frustrating because you have to wait for the video to cache. Downloading is downloading. Just admit the original poster made a technical mistake and move on.
jackchetDec 26, 2010
Are you retarded? There is no Technical and traditional sense of the word when it comes to downloading. You stated it yourself, downloading is all internet traffic. Thinking that there is a "traditional" sense of the word downloading is as retarded as saying "internet explorer is traditional way to browse the internet"Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
norman619Dec 27, 2010
LOL!!! you just love to display your ignorance.
addiktionDec 27, 2010
Yes its not downloading in the traditional sense and I agree with you completely but downloading to a user is the ability to store the file and use it on multiple devices (should be that way anyways). I think if they offered a download service like say Apple they could definitely make additional cash for this but it will have to better priced then an actual DVD. They will likely be competing with big names but I think their user base will be enough to keep them profitable and a healthy company because many people recognize Netflix as a brand. Will their stocks eventually go down? Of course and no one is refusing that but I certainly don't think it will be a crash like the author thinks.
mahonriDec 26, 2010
I think the word "downloading" is not the most accurate word to use here. Yes it is downloading, but not saving onto your computer so you can access it later with no internet connection.
immunofortDec 27, 2010
Yes I'll agree, downloading is not the most accurate. It would have been fine if the OP had said just streaming, but he specifically made the contrast between Downloading and Streaming.
addiktionDec 27, 2010
Yeah exactly. I mean I can't keep the movie but I rarely watch movies twice. The movies I will watch twice or more I will likely purchase.
smpaisnutrientsDec 26, 2010
what the author is asking is "What's the advantage in streaming a movie from netflix over a competitor? If the prices are the same and you get the same product, why do one over the other?"
Right now there are several netflix-like services, but netflix is the best, for many reasons. However, none of the things that makes netflix's mail order service the best apply to streaming. it's a lot easier to offer a functional streaming service then a mail order service. as the digital age progresses, less people are going to use dvd's over streaming services, and as that happens, netflix's advantage lessens as well. to stay on top they'll need a way to be better at streaming, say by having better prices, or exclusivity deals with studios. even then, it's more costly then the advantage they currently have. so while it is very likely that they can stay on top, their profits WILL be going down.
ajajadudeDec 26, 2010
And what the author, like many people, fail to take into account is the ISP. Streaming will never take over physical media as long as the ISPs are unwilling to upgrade their infrastructures.
agmlauncherDec 26, 2010
And with this whole net neutrality thing, streaming will get a LOT more expensive soon. Either they'll charge Netflix/Level3 more which will in turn raise the cost of Netflix's streaming service, or ISPs will outright charge customers more (probably both).
Either way, don't expect to be able to stream unlimited movies for $7.99/month much longer. Frankly, Netflix's current streaming selection barely justifies $7.99/month unless you like indie films, romantic comedies, or re-watching TV shows you've already seen.
When the ISP price gouging goes into effect, it will cost closer to $20/month for the same crappy selection.
somedummyDec 26, 2010
The author does have a point that there are some emerging risks for Netflix. The first risk is that everyone is starting to get into the game...Google TV is coming out, Comcast does some streaming stuff now, Apple TV is out. Everyone wants a piece of the market and Netflix is just another middle man in this scenario.
And second, Netflix has a real big problem when you look at something like Hulu. Hulu is owned by the content producers so they will make sure they have exclusives and first dibs on content for less cost (to themselves).
Studios already lock out Netflix and Redbox as much as they can. And now Comcast will own their own content.
Even so, Netflix has so far done very well at pleasing customers and getting their service and brand out there into lots of devices. I wouldn't bet against them.
simonjester666Dec 26, 2010
Why did people stick with Blockbuster when Hollywood video was cheaper and had a better selection? Because they already had an account with Blockbuster and for the most part the general population does not like change. Netflix eventually won over both of them for putting out a much better form of the service. Right now Netflix has the best interface and the largest customer base, it is true that someone could come out with a better one, the cable companies are trying but failing miserably, Amazon is a joke, Zune is not bad but until you can get a subscription like Netflix it will never compete. People will stay with Netflix just like they did Blockbuster and if someone comes out with an actual competing service Netflix will just adapt, If they don't they will fail like Blockbuster, my opinion is that they will adapt.
smpaisnutrientsDec 26, 2010
this is a very cogent point. but still, even with all of that, their profit margins WILL go down. it seems counter-intuitive but the point is that a dvd can be rented to (for the most part) an infinite amount of customers, while a streamed video is going to cost netflix a small fee each time to do it. And don't forget the role piracy will be playing here. People already pirated content before and had less or even no need of DVDs. those folks aren't going to switch anyway, but here's the BIG question: The ones who still use dvds, when they finally decide to make the switch to streamed content, how are they going to be able to resist becoming pirates themselves? If they are already making the leap to computer-based media, the leap to pirated media is not nearly as large as switching from the physical to the digital. this is happening with my dad right now, for years he never even had a computer, a few months ago he got the internet and discovered digital media. Now he's buying less and less dvds. eventually I can see him making the switch to mostly pirated content.
Yes, they can and likely will stay the best thanks to the head start they got. The question is, are they going to be able to maintain their current margins? Very hard to say yes to that one, though this is all very new.
amaoicanDec 26, 2010
"a dvd can be rented to ... an infinite amount of customers, while a streamed video is going to cost netflix a small fee each time to do it"
Each DVD rental costs Netflix 2x USPS postage (shipping to the customer, shipping back to the sort facility).
smpaisnutrientsDec 26, 2010
yes but the unit cost is still low and recouped. sure, postage fees go up, but streamed copies are going to entail license fees, usage rates, ISP charges, etc. and we are all very well aware how chaotic all that is right now. tomorrow you might wake up and see total net neutrality, or the complete opposite. the RIAA might decide to leap in and bring the motherf**kin' ruckus about 'piracy from streaming blah blah' and throw a wrench into all that. hard to say.
fr33tochooseDec 27, 2010
I believe the author may be insinuating if Apple, Google, Amazon, Hulu, etc. decide to enter the market and provide a streaming video service that could compete with Netflix. The industry Netflix is at the forefront of has little barriers to entry for competition.
stockjonesDec 26, 2010
This article is somewhat misleading. Its looking at netflix from the perspective of earnings and the stock market. Yes there is truth that its stock is way over valued, but the same can be said of many other stocks such as Google. As a company netflix has built brand name recognition for providing movie rentals by mail and streaming. There is a lot to be said about that. If they were a private company all this earnings bulls**t would be a non issue just as long as netflix shows a profit. How much profit doesn't matter if youre a private company.
This is typical of how the stock market kills companies and not that the company itself is dead. Personally I think more of these companies should re-think the whole IPO thing. Being private has its advantages.
arschgaudiDec 26, 2010
Private companies face the challenge of raising capital. Would Netflix have been able to get off the ground with a more limited capital investment?
flyzipperDec 26, 2010
NFLX PE 69.65
GOOG PE 24.55
S&P 500 PE 22.95
Google's PE is only slightly higher than the overall S&P 500.
NFLX valuation is 2.85x that of Google.
GOOG trading at the same valuation as NFLX would be 'worth' $550 billion (just slightly more than the combined value of of MSFT and APPL).
enantiodromiaDec 26, 2010
What are you trying to say exactly? A high PE is traditionally a bad thing.
As my professor said in one of my securities exchange classes, "If a company has a PE of 80, that essentially means that company would have to do business for 80 years at their current earnings level to produce enough earnings to buy their own company at today's price."
flyzipperDec 27, 2010
Primarily, I was responding to, "Yes there is truth that its stock is way over valued, but the same can be said of many other stocks such as Google". These two companies aren't comparable in terms of valuation as the commenter stated.
I'm agreeing with your professor; Netflx needs a whole lot of earnings increases to grow into its current share valuation.
Closed AccountDec 27, 2010
Tech startup tend to have higher P/E ratios. The price of the stock assumes that the company will eventually make higher profits. Google is already profiting alot and the growth potential isn't the same as other startups hence the lower PE ratio.
It's hard to say if there is any useful information in comparing PE ratios since it really depends on the specific financial situation of the company.
It just means Netflix earnings are low compared to their price, however investors believe their to be growth potential.
Googles PE ratio would never rise to that level again unless they came out with the biggest and most desired product in the world because googles earning are already very high which keeps their ratio low.
amaoicanDec 26, 2010
"If they were a private company all this earnings bulls**t would be a non issue just as long as netflix shows a profit. How much profit doesn't matter if youre a private company." Bulls**t.
danconiaDec 27, 2010
Agreed. This isn't General Mills that we're talking about here. Netflix probably doesn't have too much actual operations costs nor overhead, and almost definitely doesn't have to spend much on labor in relation to the price of its services.
Netflix rocks!
Closed AccountDec 26, 2010
No way! I LIKE Netflix! Therefore, any article that has anything remotely bad to say about it or its future is RIDICULOUS!
thekid_uDec 26, 2010
Hmm.. Interesting article, although I do find myself disagreeing with several elements of his argument, but he does make a good point in saying the stock is way too highly priced and history never lies ... or at least you don't think it does
davidtcDec 26, 2010
Thanks for the last 5 months Netflix. My small investment in you is going to turned into a "free" 4 month vacation overseas. Got out last week and already got my first plane ticket bought for the trip.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
629951Dec 26, 2010
Enjoy the molestation by the TSA! I'm sure you'll believe them when they say it's for YOUR safety.
davidtcDec 26, 2010
Instead of being scared of what might happen, I am going to go on my trip. Sorry you wont leave your house cause something might happen to you. There is a lot of stuff you are missing out on. Unlike you, I am not going to let fear completely control my life.
Something might happen... You better stay home then! Pathetic.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
dwynDec 26, 2010
WHEN all the ISP's start hitting their customers with usage charges the fun and games will be over for Netflix and others. Maybe they'll lobby for us to have a right to free broadband.
linuxpersonDec 27, 2010
Free broadband that we have to pay taxes for isn't free.
dwynDec 27, 2010
True that!
629951Dec 26, 2010
I normally fly 5-6 times a year for pleasure, but after being treated like a criminal by the TSA on my last trip I will no longer fly anywhere unless it is absolutely necessary. From now on I will use the rail services or my car to reach my destinations. When the airlines start feeling the effects of the TSA BS and they start making some noise then and only then will we see a change in policy.Comment is buried, click here to see the rest.
wf80diditDec 26, 2010
Cool story bro.
mike23wDec 26, 2010
shorting netflix is a good idea.
but the trick is to get the timing right which is very difficult.
if you short too soon or too late it's the same as being wrong.
yaosioDec 26, 2010
I did that once, I only made $100,000, it makes me so angry! I had to fire one of my butlers!
philbertDec 26, 2010
Uh, I just get an error page.
philbertDec 26, 2010
Nevermind now it's showing up.
yaosioDec 26, 2010
If you don't want to read the article it's saying Netflix will fail because of competition, the article does not explain why all the other services will not fail.
nicodemasDec 26, 2010
No, it didn't say Netflix would fail. It made a point of saying the company would eventually have to contend with other digital powerhouses - and that sort of contention leads to thin margins. Again, the author didn't say fail. Rather, the author contended Netflix will have less profit to fall on.
nicodemasDec 26, 2010
It is interesting when one guy shorts a stock how so many will follow suit and you see stocks tumble like what happened to Netflix. From the article I didn't get a sense of why the guy who shorted DID short. Of course, I own NFLX stock, so... I could just be crying a river for the extra value I lost.
Closed AccountDec 26, 2010
You short a stock on the belief that it is overvalued. Shorting stock is a normal and correct function of the stock market, it acts as the yang to the yin of buying stock. Shorting is also a self corrective measure that holds stocks truer to their real value as opposed to being over inflated.
If market sentiment massively shifts on a corporation that can cause a surge of shorting selling that will grossly deflate the price of the stock. This in of itself isn't necessarily a bad thing, it depends on how appropriate the reaction was. If the company is in tremendously dire straights the stock price will settle on it's true value. If the reaction was over stretching the price will correct with a large jump back up towards a value it used to have which will infuse a large amount of cash that was ventured by the short sellers into the stock during it's upward correction.
amaoicanDec 26, 2010
I have trouble trusting the idea of a short sale. If you don't own the thing you shouldn't be selling it.
Closed AccountDec 27, 2010
You're not actually selling the stock, you're selling the rights that you will be able to provide the stock at a given price. It's very similar to how call options and put options are reciprocals of each other, normal stock actions are similar to call options and short options are analogous to put options.
amaoicanDec 27, 2010
woosh woosh woosh. That's the sound of your words going over my head.
And I don't consider myself an idiot - I have a BS in a mathy field. So if I have trouble getting my head around this crap, I bet a lot of other people do, too.
Closed AccountDec 27, 2010
Think of it all in terms of math,the entire purpose of investing in anything is to a get a positive delta on your return so you make money.
The simplest way to do this is to buy stock, which is similar to addition +. You buy expect and expect it to rise in price and then when you sell it you make profit then.
Shorting is the converse to this action, and can be viewed as subtraction. With shorting you have the expectation that the stock will go down in price over time. With shorting, the basic premise is you rent the stock from an institution and pay them a fee on it. In exchange for renting it, you can then sell it into the market. When you enter into a short contract you and the borrowing institution are entering into an agreement that you will be able to return the stock to the organization at anytime if they demand it. Now as an example with shorting you will want to borrow stock when it is worth $200 with the expectation that it will decline and that at the value of $100 you will want to close your position and take your money. So with shorting this is actually what happens:
You borrow 1 share of XYZ when the current value of it is $200.
You then sell the share of XYZ and receive +$200.
After this point you wait for the stock price to decline, you'll pay a borrowing fee -$ on the stock during this time
The stock goes down to $100, at this point you BUY 1 share of XYZ at -$100.
You return the share of XYZ to the institution and now have exited your position.
So you got +200 for selling the stock, -100 when you bought the stock later, and then - some borrowing fee to end up with approximately $100 profit.
Shorting CAN be an incredibly risky proposition because when you buy stock the most you can ever lose is the investment itself. If you buy $1000 in stock the worst it can do is goto $0, the best it can do is raise to infinity; limited loss potential and unlimited gains potential. Shorting is the opposite, the gains are limited to how far the stock can go down which is at most to 0 from it's shorted price, this means the risk of loss is unlimited because the share price could go up to infinity.
This is the most basic concept of shorting that I described which is known as naked shorting for the fact you don't own the underlying security but borrow it from a company. For advanced trading that involves shorting usually short position will be matched against option positions that will guarentee that the stock will be able to be provided for at a price which allow traders to limit the amount of gains and losses they can get from a transaction instead of them being unbounded. This same concept is applied to the normal purchasing of stock such as the "covered call" stratedgy which attempts to trade the potential of unlimited gains for additional guarenteed gains that might not have been seen at all.
jizzliesDec 26, 2010
They rely on content, so as their prices to obtain it go up, they may be in trouble.
booyahbitchDec 26, 2010
everything comes to an end eventually...alarmist statements without any proof to backup what you are chicken little-ing about is just stupid. Netflix will be around until they can't adjust to their situation, be it thieving corporations who want to be paid bit by bit for streaming on their backbone, or the demands of their customers.
zachworDec 26, 2010
While it is true Netflix is gaining some new attention and competition, let me give you one good reason Netflix is better off than these other companies.
Netflix, rather it's CEO, is willing to kill its existing business model, and run with a new one to meet market demands. Netflix right now is cannibalizing it's disc based market right now with streaming and doing a hell of a job with it. I'll take an aggressive company, looking towards the future, rather than a big slow company that only plays catch up.
melthornalDec 26, 2010
This is talking about stocks, not sales. He is saying netflix stock will become undesirable, and they will lose money necessary for expanding. Netflix, as it exists right now, would die. It is in a transition period between two businesses (streaming video and whatever it up their sleeve in the works right now). If Netflix suddenly lost a lot of the money they are depending on to build and develop their new business model, they would have issues. And the stock becoming undesirable could do just this thing.
I'm not saying I agree with the argument, but this has nothing to do with sales or competition.
amaoicanDec 26, 2010
I disagree with your assertion that Netflix is making a change of strategy by investing in streaming - I think streaming was the plan all along.
coryglennDec 26, 2010
I don't buy it.
geroncoDec 26, 2010
It's easier for apple, Microsoft, google, to crash before netflix! This shows how the people writing these articles have no clue what they are talking about...lol....dummiesComment is buried, click here to see the rest.
showbrideDec 26, 2010
Uh-oh!
o76923Dec 26, 2010
If only net neutrality existed...
smokezzDec 26, 2010
Apple TV won't do f**k all to Netflix. $3-4 PER movie vs. $7.99 for unlimited streaming.... Hmmm, anyone that can't do that math needs to go back to school. Is Netflix stock over priced? Probably...
enantiodromiaDec 26, 2010
uhm, i bought my Apple TV specifically for its Netflix Streaming support and the nice UI. i never plan on buying shows from iTunes, but i may rent a movie if it's not already on Netflix streaming.
smokezzDec 26, 2010
Ok, but that's supporting Netflix. Read the article. The article is talking about AppleTV HURTING Netflix with their movie rentals.
linuxpersonDec 27, 2010
While he's reading it, you should do the same.
enantiodromiaDec 27, 2010
and i'm telling you that Apple also HELPS Netflix because a lot of people might think a $99 Apple TV is a good bargain Netflix device.
agmlauncherDec 26, 2010
Except that you have unlimited streaming of a very limited selection. Where is Avatar? Where is Blade Runner DIRECTOR'S cut? Where is Iron Man 2? Where is the new Predators movie? The Book of Eli? The Dark Knight? Minority Report? I am Legend? Cloverfield? Star Wars? No Country for Old Men?
So many big name movies aren't available for streaming. I can only watch so many kids movies, low budget indie films, tv shows I've already seen, and romantic comedies before I go insane.
noupsellDec 26, 2010
Time for Redbox to stream!
thefraudDec 26, 2010
From personal experience, Netflix takes on a much larger and more important role for people who use it as their primary form of TV entertainment. I purchased the Roku box almost two years ago, cancelled my cable subscription and never looked back. I was the first of my circle of friends to lose the cable subscription and since then, at least four or five other couples we know have done the same. Between Netflix, the internet and the standard free channels I receive via antennae, there's no way I would go back to paying for cable, nor do I feel the need to switch providers. Once this trend catches on in earnest, I think we'll see companies like Netflix become more profitable than we thought possible.
gracie5261Dec 28, 2010
I take it you aren't a sports fan - you can't watch NFL on Netflix. Well, maybe you can - but, what's the point being a whole season behind? Unless Netflix has a way to provide live streaming of NFL (and other major sports), cable will live.
thefraudDec 30, 2010
Guilty, I really don't watch any sports but the local teams who air on the standard free channels.
enantiodromiaDec 26, 2010
...or its about to keep doing very well.
mrnaturalDec 27, 2010
Just don't f**k with Netflix until I get done with all 10 seasons of Stargate SG1!!
arkons24Dec 27, 2010
I'd short Apple before I short Netflix.
theaveshopDec 27, 2010
I hope not i like Netflix.
theaveshopDec 27, 2010
I hope not i like Netflix.
contentmanagerDec 27, 2010
Net neutrality strikes back.
katemidlandDec 28, 2010
I just recently joined Netflix and love it. I hate that I am limited by one cable company and I don't want to commit to a contract with a satellite company. I live in a metro area, so decided to dump all TV, get a $3.00 over-the-air to get local channels. Since I have a PS3 and a Wii, when I saw that Netflix could now stream over them I decided to give it a shot. It is awesome. I don't miss cable. If I need to see anything I can find it online anyway, but I love to watch movies on my tv, so Netflix gives me an affordable option.
noig3Dec 29, 2010
People would do well to read a book by Benjamin Graham called "The Intelligent Investor". The book is primarily about value stocks and why ridiculously high P/E ratios (like NFLX, GOOG) are good at first but bombers into bearish after they crash.
The book also talks about how the same cycle is repeated again and again for mid - large cap companies because of people just "Wanting To Believe" that they can hit it big again. I did not invest in NFLX. I invested in GE when the stock tanked.
Why do all of the analysts keep echoing each other about NFLX? So that when the stock tanks, many quarters after the original predictions by the original brokers, they can claim to be right about their predictions through loosely associated claims and paper thin evidence to maintain their blog readership or maintain ratings on television.
TedThorsenDec 29, 2010
i think netflix is great.. i use it all he time.. i get the one in the mail and the streaming and i love it. I tell people all the time that it is an amazing investment it is certainly cheaper then buying DVDs and it is much better then when i used to have to go to video stores. Between netflix and the DVR i always get to see everything i want to see.