What is Digg?141 Comments
- halavais, on 10/12/2007, -6/+74Right, but has that percentage changed at all over the intervening period. I suspect that the number of rapes *reported* (of total rapes) has actually increased, due to awareness of date rape, and the like.
- Tebixan, on 10/12/2007, -5/+64If anything the percentage of reported rapes has probably gone up in 25 years. So odds are the decrease is higher than 85%. Plus the people that track these statistics usually take that into account.
damnit halavais, you beat me to it.. > - sithmat, on 10/12/2007, -35/+91CORRELATION not CAUSATION, it is important to know.
As many people might mistake the two and assume that more porn equals less rape, here is an example of correlation:
As ice cream consumption goes up, number of drownings go up in a given city. This is a CORRELATION between ice cream consumption and drownings. Obviously it makes no sense to say that eating ice cream will cause you to drown. Rather, an intelligent person might figure out that since more people swim in the summer, and more people eat ice cream in the summer, it is the fact that the weather is warm that is the conflicting variable in this example.
So please do not do something stupid like claim that porn addicts cannot be rapists, because clearly correlation is not causation.
And BTW: It is damn easy to prove correlation between pretty much any two variables, so why is this article even news? - bonked, on 10/12/2007, -7/+40@sithmat - But anti-porn activists all the time claim that porn increases rape using the inverse of what you are asking us to accept, this provides (albeit flawed) one more way to punch a hole in that arguement.
It is one thing to say "I know that you are saying X causes Y, but that is correlation, not causation. There is a flaw in your arguement."
It is even better to be able to say "I know that you are saying X causes Y, but that is correlation, not causation. And besides, even if you were correct that X causes Y, can you explain why, now that X is more readily available, Y has dropped dramatically, this demonstrates the flaw in your arguement against X." - anasazi, on 10/12/2007, -1/+27well there has also been an increase in world temperature alongside this increase in porn, so obviously the friction from more people fapping has contributed to the increase in world temperature.
that and the pirates, of course. - bonked, on 10/12/2007, -5/+29No media sensalization of crimes against children are up - so you think that there is more. Look at the stats for kidnapping. If you asked most people they would say the problem is worse than it ever was but the inverse is true - kidnapping is way down from the early 80s, but now that everyone has national cable news available, and these stories sell, people think it happens more.
- asurroca, on 10/12/2007, -5/+28 Wait a minute, you mean to say that despite what the politicians say, porn just might actually be a good thing? Gasp!
- halavais, on 10/12/2007, -3/+23Quoting the article: "Yet proof of correlation is not the same thing as causation. If autumn regularly precedes winter, that doesn’t mean that autumn causes winter..."
He does suggest that if the relationship was the reverse--if exposure to pornography led to increased propensity to commit rape--the internet should have been a serious driver to push the number of rapes up. He suggests that there are possible reasons that pornography may reduce rape, including demystification and a cathartic effect.
No, correlation is not causation. But his argument here is that when you find an interesting correlation, it's worth trying to figure out why it has occurred. - kitsonk, on 10/12/2007, -8/+27sithmat, what makes you think that there is "clearly no causality?" Causality is demonstrated through investing many of the factors and finding a direct linkage between the the cause and the effect, usually by finding instances where the reverse factor is true and the result is the opposite.
Personally I don't know if access to pornography being limited causes the number of rapes to go up. It is an interesting thought, which should be investigated, but without that sort of scientific research, to dismiss the claim as a whole would be silly. - johnvm, on 10/12/2007, -12/+28Now just to get more rape porn out there so it can be prevalent. Maybe we can get it down that last 15%.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -2/+18"Ice cream sales are strongly, robustly, postitively corelated with crime sales."
What, exactly, are "crime sales?" 0.o - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -4/+20In the late 1990s the number of drug users had decreased by half compared to a decade earlier; almost two-thirds of high school seniors had never used any illegal drugs, even marijuana. So why did a majority of adults rank drug abuse as the greatest danger to America’s youth? Why did nine out of ten believe the drug problem is out of control, and only one in six believe the country was making progress?
We have managed to convince ourselves that just about every young American male is a potential mass murderer-a remarkable achievement, considering the steep downward trend in youth crime throughout the 1990s. Faced year after year with comforting statistics, we either ignore them-adult Americans estimate that people under eighteen commit about half of all violent crimes when the actual number is 13 percent-or recast them as "The Lull Before the Storm" (Newsweek headline). "We know we’ve got about six years to turn this juvenile crime thing around or our country is going to be living with chaos," Bill Clinton asserted in 1997, even while acknowledging that the youth violent crime rate had fallen 9.2 percent the previous year.
This same insanity in public perception applies to all facets of American culture -- from fears about diseases that are unlikely to hurt average people, to pornography, to illegal immigrants, to child predators. We live in a culture of FEAR. - NoAccounting4me, on 10/12/2007, -20/+33Caution!
Cum hoc ergo propter hoc; corelation is not causation.
Ice cream sales are strongly, robustly, postitively corelated with crime sales.
However, that does not mean ice cream sales cause crime. - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -4/+17By definition, if a rape is not reported there can be no reliable evidence of it's existance for statistical purposes.
One knows that rapes occur.
One knows how many rapes are reported.
The only reliable numbers for how many rapes occur is from the number of rapes reported.
How can one know how many rapes are NOT reported?
From second hand reports? From calls to rape crisis lines? Both can be overreported (due to duplicate reports) and in both instances the victim could have gone to the police after the survey.
Also, how does one define "rape"? Does one include statutory rape? How about when a woman wakes up with someone after a night of drinking? Is that rape? Is it still rape if a man wakes up with a strange woman? Is it mutual rape and counted twice? - wangeyes, on 10/12/2007, -7/+19either that or it isn't brushed under the carpet so much, i.e., priest/teacher 'transfers'
- DisposableRob, on 10/12/2007, -8/+20I slap myself in the head. There is an obvious correlation. This paper argues that there is causation.
- apeiron, on 10/12/2007, -2/+14Many parts of the world have more access to pr0n than the US and they generally have less sexual assualt. Countries with legal prostitution also have fewer sex crimes. If you declare something naughty, evil, illegal or taboo, you make it highly desirable. But then people get it through negative means, or use it in a bad way.
Look at the US vs Europe in terms of alchohol. They have very lax laws about booze, esp the drinking age. In Europe having a beer is about as risque as having a coke here. In the US kids grow up swiping booze from their parents and hiding their drinking. When they turn 21 they go nuts. - mrgreen4242, on 10/12/2007, -1/+12"I think it's probably a stretch to say that the availability of porn is the cause of rape reduction."
I wouldn't say it's a stretch, but I would agree it's not definitely the cause. HOWEVER, this does disprove the notion that increased access to porn causes an increase of rape (a statement that many anti-porn groups make).
This study doesn't prove anything, but it does DISPROVE some things... which is usually the case with most good science. - stonebear, on 10/12/2007, -7/+17It is really up? Or have you been deceived by propaganda. Numbers (that don't come from a convervative think tank) please.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -1/+10However, naive girls lured into porn shoots with the promise of a quick $100 is up a billion!
"HI DADDY!" - Allistairr, on 10/12/2007, -0/+8Hard to say that though... Since the beginning of time there has been pedophilia and rape. The only difference now is that modern communications makes it easier for these things to come out to the public.
- spyrochaete, on 10/12/2007, -0/+8I find this possible correlation extremely interesting since there was a similar dramatic reduction in violent crime shortly after Doom was released.
http://bias.blogfodder.net/archives/archive/photos/Violent%20Crime%20Rates%20chart%201973-2003.jpg
It's impossible to prove whether these correlations are justified, but it's chilling to think what may happen to society if people like Jack Thompson "clean up" virtual entertainment. People need an outlet for their urges, and some urges are best satisfied virtually. - Tebixan, on 10/12/2007, -0/+8Of course the decrease in rape cannot be entirely attributed to an increase in porn, but it is an interesting notion. Given all the political and media sensationalism about how the internet = danger. One would expect rapes to rise as people become desensitized(sp?) to it through the internet.
Odds are increased backlash from society and more informed women are the primary cause. My female friends often walk in groups at night, or ask me to come with them. My girlfriend calls me whenever shes walking alone in a parking lot. We had a rape last year at my school (UCF) on campus. They got the guys picture on a camera, and it was emailed to every student on campus, put in our newspaper, and broadcast on TV. - theckhd, on 10/12/2007, -2/+9@ kitsonk
sithmat did not say that there was "clearly no causality." In fact, your post is the only time that quote shows up in the thread.
sithmat said, "clearly correlation is not causation," which is a true statement, and very relevant since people often confuse the two, especially in cases like this where the submission appeals to peoples desires (or what they'd like to believe is true).
Not that I'm arguing with the results or their implications or anything, and I agree it's an interesting idea that should be studied to determine if there is some sort of causation between them. However, it's a bit unfair to attack someone on the basis of something they didn't actually say. - WackyT, on 10/12/2007, -25/+32"The FBI estimates that only 37% of all rapes are reported to the police. U.S. Justice Department statistics are even lower, with only 26% of all rapes or attempted rapes being reported to law enforcement officials."
http://www.paralumun.com/issuesrapestats.htm - halavais, on 10/12/2007, -0/+6As an aside, the idea that liberalizing pornography laws reduces instances of rape and child sexual abuse has been made before. Sorry for the PDF link, but this paper compares the changes in rapes from 1964 to 1984 in the US, Denmark (which liberalized porn to an extreme extent in 1967), Sweden and W. Germany.
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/proceedings/kutchinsky.pdf
There's a great graph in there that shows rape rates flat everywhere but the US, which had the most repressive pornography laws, even after 1972. It suggests studies that provide a causal link as well, including those who commit sex crimes indicating that they came from repressive anti-sex families. - TechnoGuyRob, on 10/12/2007, -0/+6But who will think of the clogged tubes!
- spyrochaete, on 10/12/2007, -1/+7Wow! I never even considered that the dramatic decrease in the pirate population might have something to do with the decrese of rape! My Pastafarian faith is suddenly shaken!
- pr0t0, on 10/12/2007, -2/+8I've always read/heard that rape was about control, not sex. Outside of cams where you tell the performer what to do, porn seems to be primarily about sex.
I think it's probably a stretch to say that the availability of porn is the cause of rape reduction. - Jaht, on 10/12/2007, -8/+13Digg Porn, Bury Rape
- gd007, on 10/12/2007, -0/+5yes, this shows we need more porn - much more.
- Tebixan, on 10/12/2007, -2/+7Such crimes against children probably got a spike from the internet due to easier access for child predators, and the lack of awarness of danger on behalf of the parents. However I would guess that as time goes on and society becomes more informed about the net, this will go down.
As a generation, we know better the dangers the web poses. Therefore I can protect my children (when I have them) better from such predators. Whereas I was a good bit more web savy than my parents by the time I was 13. So even though they had AOL blocking the porn, I could easily get around that.
All we need to do is change the mindset so that parents & their children take the same approach to talking to stangers online as they do on the playground.
1) Stay in my sight (check the history to see where they've been)
2) Tell me if anyone says something that makes you uncomfortable
3) Use common sense - zengonzo, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4'In the late 1990s the number of drug users had decreased by half compared to a decade earlier; almost two-thirds of high school seniors had never used any illegal drugs, even marijuana.'
Because the Boomers had all partied like rockstars in the sixties and have since become terrified that their own children might enjoy themselves as much. - jmp120, on 10/12/2007, -1/+5@texpundit: I just paid 45 dollars to fill up my 12 gallon gas tank. I think thats a crime sale.
- Otto, on 10/12/2007, -1/+5>>>"However, that does not mean ice cream sales cause crime."
True, but if somebody is claiming that ice cream causes crime to decrease, then they're easily proven wrong if you show the opposite.
For many years, religious nutjobs have been decrying porn and one of the things they say is that it causes an increase in rapes. This is clearly not true, and it's nice to have facts proving that. - sithmat, on 10/12/2007, -2/+6@ Lanser: "According to your argument there is *no* argument for causation, no matter what the evidence. "
What? Can you stop making huge leaps in judgement (if you can call it that) because I am simply trying to make a point about how this article itself is not enough to PROVE causation?
According to my argument, I am saying that the evidence IN THIS SPECIFC CASE does not PROVE causation. If you read the paper, you will see the authors only SUGGESTING the potential to reverse the age-old belief that porn causes rape.
Here is how you do prove causation: You obviously need correlation at first, but you need multiple studies using experimental methods other than simple X vs. Y plotting to figure out whether porn causes rape or vice-versa. Maybe some longitudinal studies, who knows, I don't claim to be a major researcher. You then need these multiple studies to be subjected to a meta-analysis (pretty much see if in general the results concur and if so, to what degree) before you can even begin to suggest that hey, porn does not cause rape or vice-versa.
And people, stop picking sides for me. No where do I say I am vehemently anti-porn or pro-porn, so stop slapping a label on me to bolster your weak arguments. - joeyjojo, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4...which is the entire point of the study. ;o)
- bonked, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3@Bokista
Even including those numbers, kidnapping is way down. - uttles, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4This is a simple principle really. The more you keep people away from something they want, the more violent they get.
http://isil.org/resources/lit/banning-porn.html - joeyjojo, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3"but it seems like"
and thus the problem with America right now. Too many voters put to much faith in their own sense of "but it seems like" rather than really thinking and analysing the topic at hand thoroughly. - sithmat, on 10/12/2007, -2/+5@kitsonk: "sithmat, what makes you think that there is "clearly no causality?""
What makes me think that? Have you READ the article or even the blurb on this article? It clearly says: "This paper argues that there is a correlation between the two." Okay? The paper itself admits it is only aiming for CORRELATION, so that's why I am sure there is no causality (for now) because their evidence is clearly not strong enough to support anything but correlation.
My little rant previously was just trying to make the distinction between correlation and causation before someone took this article out of context and tried to make it prove something it didn't. - Otto, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3No, actually, it does. That's what a correlation is.
It doesn't mean that there is a common causative factor, which is what I think you meant. - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3I think davodavo just wanted a reason to write "cum" in a story about rape and porn.
- Lanser84, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4Let's get over the causation vs corollation thing. The same argument applies to all generalizations, scientific, every-day, sociological, etc. (The only people it doesn't apply to, apparently, are religious conservatives who guess *without evidence* that porn causes rape.)
This is philosophy's problem of induction. Unless you are qualified to discuss the whole picture of when generalizations are valid and invalid don't use this argument as a rationalization to dismiss it. With it goes the rest of science as far as your argument went. In all likelyhood the statistical analysis was controlled in the same way scientists usually do: and used plenty of mill's methods to make the corollation very strong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mill%27s_methods - licoricewhip, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3I was always taught that if I kept my hands busy, I would keep out of trouble. Seems to apply here, I guess.
- Henaro, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Davodavo maybe if you wished cancer on them they would shut up. :D
- bloqmon, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2that bold face makes it look like it says poM...
- sephiroth4, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2"If you build it.....they will come...."
...I know..it's lame - KUKBAHLAM, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Since the rape statistics were released a couple of months back I have been struggling to come to grips with the reasons. I think it is a knee-jerk reaction to claim that porn is the only reason that the change has occurred. More likely it is a convergence of variables. We must also look at the changes in law, the statistics on incarceration rates and sentencing, the education of our youth as to the non-acceptability of rape, advances in pharmacology, etc. It is worth saying that the only variable in the mix that exhibits this level of change is technology, but again, it’s not the only variable.
However, let’s not lose site of the bigger picture here. This kind of a social change does not often happen unless you have some major environmental or cultural catastrophe. It is a frightening amount of change for a set of cultures that does not take change too well.
While grateful that this kind of a social development has happened, what undesirable cultural changes might be on the horizon? How can we hope to adjust to them when they happen so quickly and at such a high degree?
It compels us to start thinking of how to deal with all the rapid cultural changes that technology will perturb.
In the 70s, Alvin Toffler wrote “Future Shock.” It’s still worth reading.
I also recommend “Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos” by Mitchell M. Waldrop.
Oh, and if you get the chance to linger at a University for 10 years, collecting over 323 hours and several social science degrees….. I highly recommend the experience. - DaffyDuck, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Anyone interested in this topic, please read this study based on porn in Japan and Europe. It's pretty eye-opening if you ask me.
http://www.hawaii.edu/PCSS/online_artcls/pornography/prngrphy_rape_jp.html -
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