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8 Comments
- WaterDragon, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3Simple...open it, count it, f it's an odd number, always take the other envelope...slightly increases your odds.
- t1c52002, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2No you are incorrect. When he referst to the cases it is actually refering to the 3 possible outcomes that can be derived form the deceision based on using his methodology in ONE case. So the probablitly is that if you use his strategy your odds would increase to 66% of winning the test.
As for the rest of the post, I have no idea what he is talking about. - saeglopur, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Grab both of them and get the hell out.
- archimerged, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1The problem with the first problem posed in the article is that he assumes it is possible to "pick a number at random". Actually, there is no possible way of choosing a number in (-oo,oo) at random with probability density uniform.
The first comment above is correct about cash in an envelope. If one envelope contains an amount which cannot be evenly divided given the existing currency, then it must be the smaller amount. - szelij, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Uhh..i'm lost? Someone explain it to me in laymans terms please?
- baudbwoy, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1clearly if you guys and gals were paying attention you would see that the answer is staring you in the face...its as plain as daylight. I thought about if I should just come out and tell everyone or sit here and watch as you all put your brains into overdrive trying to come up with the answer...I decided that would be cruel so here is the answer...the answer is simple its forty-two. no, no, no thank yous need...yes I am a genius.
- WaterDragon, on 10/12/2007, -1/+1Noo Noo it doesn't work that way...( I read the beginning of the article.)
The three 'cases' don't occur with equal frequency, as they are arbitrary cases that you made up. No advantage is gained, and the odds remain at 50-50, always! Nice illusion...maybe for a little kid! - sigintop, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0Here's my solution:
Just pick one, ignore the other one. ;)
You're maximizing your profit because there's nothing you can do that will definately give you the larger amount. For example, a business can't say they haven't maximized profits just because they haven't sold their product to every living person on the planet. There are limitation and yours just happens to be that you don't have x-ray vision. ;)
Also, by not looking at the other one you take the less of two regrets. The first being regretting you never made the choice. The second, regretting you did make the choice. The difference being that the first one still leaves some hope in your mind that you made the right choice.
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