What is Digg?192 Comments
- Gigs, on 10/18/2007, -2/+27This is why I will avoid skydiving and make sure to look both ways, twice, for the next 20 years. Nothing's worth risking immortality.
- inactive, on 10/17/2007, -0/+21Here's a great video of the guy.
http://www.technologyevangelist.com/2007/05/killer ... - gak001, on 10/19/2007, -1/+17He wasn't saying that climate change is over-hyped because it was scientific voodoo, he was using that as an example to illustrate that technology is progressing at such an awesome rate that even something so potentially catastrophic as climate change will be simply remedied by these advances and that we should have more faith in the exponentially increasing rate of technology and its ability to solve the world's problems.
- ApokalypseNow, on 10/17/2007, -3/+19You say that like it is a bad thing, especially when the end result of his money-making endeavor, should it prove successful, would be bringing us ever closer to the singularity.
- hughes42, on 10/19/2007, -0/+13When you say, "computer smarter than a human," it important to decide which human. For example, I have a programmable coffee maker that is way smarter than my sister-in-law.
- theshizzler, on 10/16/2007, -0/+13Actually, in The Singularity is Near he goes through his previous predictions from The Age of Spiritual Machines and judges their accuracy. Most of them were highly accurate, though he admits he didn't nail every single one. His short-term predictions from Singularity are for ~2014. I was doubtful of many of them, but every once in a while I'll read some tidbit about progress in quantum computing or the creation of synthetic life and I'm reminded of his previous accuracy. Personally, I'm rooting for the guy to be right. Who doesn't want to live forever?
- gropo, on 10/16/2007, -2/+14I think Gates has chilled out over the past few years since he stopped equating Microsoft success with his personal worth. A life of philanthropy and thinking bigger thoughts would tend to do that, even for someone as narcissistic and self-absorbed as Gates.
That said, I've been reading Kurzweil for years, and if you can handle his hurricanes of information and theory, you're better off as a result when it comes to speculations about the general direction of human-machine interactivity and technological evolution. I wonder how many of his projection points 10 years ago in The Age of Spiritual Machines are on the mark today? - fockyou, on 10/17/2007, -2/+14Short, but its interesting nonetheless.
- hammerpants, on 10/17/2007, -0/+12I didn't know it was illegal.
- phalcon, on 10/18/2007, -0/+10You guys are failing to appreciate the implications of the law of accelerating returns. All technology will become cheaper and better, on an exponential scale. If you read his book, you will see that this progression has been going on pretty much since we crawled out of the ooze. The rich poor divide will go away, because everything will be dirt cheap to manufacture. New forms of businesses will arise to take the place of ones that are no longer "profitable". Mainly information creating businesses.
As far as reaching the limits of the "atomic level", he accounts for this also. With many paradigm shifts, such as 3D computing, molecular computing, quantum computers, DNA based computation, reverse computing, etc. Once one paradigms limits are reached, another arises in its place, (abacus, vacuum tubes, transistors, etc)
These laws remain true, regardless of politics. This isn't the American law, its for our species. If it doesn't happen here, it will happen somewhere else first.
Everyone should read kurzweil's book, its a very mind opening experience, and totally changes your world view. Any logical person, can see that he is pretty much dead on, and the knowledge of this does change your outlook towards certain things, like Global Warming.
Global Warming wouldn't be such a problem if we just released billions of nanobots into the atmosphere that absorbed CO2 and converted it to oxygen and carbon, or some similar futuristic solution. These are the kinds of things that will be possible in 20-30 years.
We are reaching the "knee of the curve" in the exponential growth, and it will soon become obvious to everyone that growth is exploding and can no longer even be confused as being linear.
I predict kurzweil will be hailed as one of the greatest inventors, "prophets", and if his FatKat fund goes well, wealthiest men to ever live. - racekarl, on 10/17/2007, -0/+10If past experience holds true, it is Kurzweil who will be proven correct on that point, not you. Take for example almost any environmental issue that has cropped up far enough in the past to have had time to be dealt with: water quality in the renaissance, deforestation during the industrial revolution, air quality during the second half of the twentieth century. All of these issues have been dramatically improved through the application of technology, and continue to improve despite massive increases in population and productive capacity.
A fatalist attitude that we can do nothing except stop what we're currently doing will *never* succeed at anything except creating misery. - insonh, on 10/18/2007, -2/+12i for one welcome our Cylon Overlords
Pic from the future or it wont happen
how will we react when Muslims stage a virtual attack in our virtual worlds while we're having virtual sex? - wentwj, on 10/19/2007, -0/+10We will start virtual wars with people that had virtually nothing to do with the virtual attack.
- hammerpants, on 10/17/2007, -0/+9Robots don't need no steenkeng biosphere!
- hammerpants, on 10/16/2007, -2/+11Kurzweil's great. I loved the book "The Age of Spiritual Machines." Excerpts of it were on Our Lady Peace's album, "Spiritual Machines." Really well done. If you can't read, and if a robot is reading this to you, I recommend the album. Cool stuff in there. The music's ok, too...OLP's last really good disc.
- FuzzyC, on 10/17/2007, -0/+9Reminds me of Ghost in the Shell.
- inactive, on 10/16/2007, -0/+8Tonight, fellow half-humans, we dine in HELL!
- slapded, on 10/16/2007, -0/+8see: Road Ahead
hahahah - Gryfft, on 10/16/2007, -0/+8I'm gonna be one of those half humans, so I'll see you in hell.
- inactive, on 10/17/2007, -1/+9I'm buying 3 hummers to run on treadmills just to spite you.
- EmoSLWarrior, on 10/17/2007, -1/+9While I can comprehend what Kurzweil says and I do believe he is an extraordinary man, I still think that there will be a large segment of the population "left behind". There already is. Some people would argue that survival of the fittest or some variation thereof is in effect and that those people should be left behind. My question: is it ethical to leave people behind to suffer and die?
- monsterofNone, on 10/17/2007, -3/+11bill gates is not a great reference when it comes to predicting the future.
- RonBurgundy76, on 10/16/2007, -2/+9I predict that you need to read up a little more on Mr. Kurzweil...
- teh_techie, on 10/17/2007, -2/+9HATE -> Black background with white text! UGH!
- Nidor, on 10/17/2007, -0/+6heh, just hope its more Ghost in the Shell and less Terminator
- BlazinEurasian, on 10/18/2007, -0/+6uhh, I am a meat popsicle.
- vwvan, on 10/16/2007, -0/+6some progress, based on printing is non-linear, other progress based on the availability of energy is linear or worse.
progress based on people cooperating varies, as in war and peace - Gigs, on 10/19/2007, -1/+7round? are you insane? seriously man, the Earth is flat, get over it!
- inactive, on 10/18/2007, -1/+7Hopefully I can join the Terrans in dominating the Protoss forces.
- GuyeNoir, on 10/19/2007, -0/+5I once met a girl on the internet who asked me if I was messed up (citing that all other New Yorkers she's met were messed up). I said "probably, but the only alternative is being normal, and that's just boring." Now she's my girlfriend.
- SquashMaster, on 10/25/2007, -1/+6"For something that smart, it should be simple to solve any solvable problem. Like people left behind. Whatever that means."
This, ladies and gentlemen, is one of the most terrifying things ever. Leaving human life up to a computer's logic.
Think all those sci-fi stories you read were just fantasy novels? Look out folks.
RIP ***** sapien ~200,000 BC - 2027 AD - kodax, on 10/16/2007, -0/+5I think the thing that makes moore's law unique and the idea of a singularity possible is the concept of momentum accelerating and feeding upon itself. Yes - current technology will yield diminishing returns as it requires more effort for modest gains. However, it is the new technology itself that drives the next gain.
- leftyslament, on 10/17/2007, -0/+5You do realize how fascist that sounds, right? I think you forget that not everyone on earth has access to computer technology like us. There is a huge portion of the planet that is computer illiterate, not because they are unintelligent, but because they have never used a computer. Even in wealthier, tech-savvy countries like the U.S. there are people who don't have computers. This doesn't make them "wasteful" humans, it makes them poor. If you think that only 2 percent on the world will be "left behind", then you're an optimist.
My biggest problem with Kurzweil's prediction is that it fails to take into account human behavior. There is a pretty high chance that those who are in control of the resources of the future, whether politically or monetarily, will misuse them. The very technologies that have the potential to set humanity free have the power to enslave them as well. And this is all assuming that those who currently control the resources don't ***** up first. There is also a chance that these technologies might be developed under strict oppressive regimes like China. Imagine what kind of applications the government would have for such technology. So to answer your question, I don't think ethics will even have a factor in the progression. It will happen no matter what, and yes, people are gonna suffer no matter what. The disparity between the privileged and the poor will unf - SpykerSpeed, on 10/16/2007, -0/+5Well, relative poverty. In America poverty means a color television and a double wide trailer, in China it's quite different. I expect in 30 years, people will look back and consider average Americans today "poverty stricken". In a sense, wealth has always been a preview for what's coming in the future.
- pantsbandit, on 10/19/2007, -0/+5My thoughts, exactly.
- diggerine, on 10/19/2007, -8/+13What's this? Diggers actually approving of a guy who thinks Al Gore's warnings about global warming is overhype and ridiculous.
So who do you believe? Ray Kurzweil and his "The Singularity is Near!" message, or Al "Nobel Peace Prize" Gore and his "The Globe is Warming!" alarms?
Kurzweil thinks Gore does not take into account the effects of exponential technological progress. I think he's right. - blast_flame, on 10/18/2007, -0/+5He deals with this problem in his book "the singularity is near." Even if we do not get quantum computing we can start producing 3d chips instead of the flat chips we have today to increase power.
- GuyeNoir, on 10/19/2007, -0/+4When people first started using trains in the U.S. there were many MANY accidents and lots of people died. Despite that, railroads completely transformed the face of this country, and others. I think that kind of death and suffering is terrible and should be avoided, but what would've happened if the U.S. passed a law in the early 1800s making trains illegal because they were unsafe? Just something to think about...
- Sawta, on 10/16/2007, -0/+4So when can I expect the handicapped to drive highly armored double-wide buses of destruction, complete with mini helicopter while surfing Second Life, I mean Metaverse?
- Zeeeeeeeeeee, on 10/16/2007, -0/+4lol, of course suffering and dieing isn't ethical. Not much of a question.
If Kurzweil is right, and we can create a computer smarter than ourselves, that computer can improve itself until it is crazy intelligent. ie. a singularity.
For something that smart, it should be simple to solve any solvable problem. Like people left behind. Whatever that means. - wentwj, on 10/18/2007, -2/+6There's a LOT of guesses and assumptions in this theory. I don't doubt that it COULD be true, but I think wagering the planet and other such things is entirely idiotic. We can be mindful of global warming right now and if he's right, it'll still happen.
Predicting paradigm shifts is also basically theoretically impossible. With that being said, if computers are going to solve everything, we will need a paradigm shift. Computers can't solve every problem, there is a theoretical limit and problems they can't solve. Granted these problems are pretty weird, and could potentially be irrelevant but they are still problems. Quantum doesn't solve it either. Quantum computers still suffer the same problems and can't solve anything beyond a standard turing computational model. Likewise even in Quantum computing P does not equal NP, and there are still things outside of NP. - inactive, on 10/19/2007, -0/+4"Nutjob" is a lame excuse for not changing opinions that are probably wrong. Everybody who doesn't agree with you isn't "crazy".
- 4pple5auce, on 10/18/2007, -1/+5This kind of goes along the same lines of thinking as futurists Nikolai Kardashev and Michio Kaku. This future doesn't seem so hard to imagine technologically, but I have a feeling people will have a problem with the moral and ethical implications of being a cyborg.
- xister, on 10/16/2007, -0/+4I hope that doesn't apply to all machines... I'd hate to have to get rid of my fleshlight.
- jon30041, on 10/17/2007, -0/+4Wait... merging with our technology is the next step in our evolution? So... when it comes down to it... it really WILL be SkyNet, and not zombies, that over-run the earth...
Damnit, I was really pulling for fighting dumb brain-sucking staggering punks, not super-intelligent, super-strong, super-everything half humans! - RabidAngel, on 10/16/2007, -1/+5"Age of the Spiritual Machines" is the best non-fiction book that I have ever read.
- hammerpants, on 10/16/2007, -0/+4I really liked his ideas in the introduction to read it in any order you feel. I tried it, and it was cool. It was definitely the most engaging non-fiction I've read.
- Downtime, on 10/16/2007, -0/+4Sounds like Futurama! Sweet!
- pabloD, on 10/18/2007, -1/+5Greetings from the singularity, meatpuppets.
- skags, on 10/19/2007, -0/+4In the future, all web pages will be white text on black backgrounds. Its a scary future indeed.
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