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- BloodJunkie, on 10/12/2007, -2/+104For those that don't want to load the PDF, Nintendo is estimating that they will sell 6 million Wii consoles and 17 million Wii software units by March 2007.
- TheKingInYellow, on 10/12/2007, -3/+78I predict that I will purchase a Wii.
- iluvatar, on 10/12/2007, -4/+60not so pointless for the shareholders
- johnhummel, on 10/12/2007, -3/+29I predict I will buy two, one for me, one to sell to you on eBay.
Yes, I am evil - but I predicted that too. - deucer, on 10/12/2007, -4/+18I predict that you will buy one too.
- johnhummel, on 10/12/2007, -1/+13All I ask is that you please spell "please" "please" - but otherwise I understand your post, but I do have one question:
Why will people stop playing it in two years because of the graphics? The graphics of the PS2 are inferior to the Xbox, but people still buy it (more than the 360 still). The graphics of the DS are clearly inferior to the PSP - but the DS sells more.
I think you have a point there somewhere, but I fail to see why inferior graphics equals only a 2 year life span. - Antialias, on 10/12/2007, -1/+12Because it seems very reasonable considering the amount of interest for the Wii? Where as there seems to be quite a bit of negativity toward the PS3, and their estimates were very high.
- weirdone, on 10/12/2007, -1/+12buss you have it reversed. It says 17 million wii console titles sold and 6 million console units. How can it make sense that they would sell more units than titles? That means they would expect 2/3 of the people who buy a wii to not buy a game.
- MrSketch, on 10/12/2007, -1/+11No we're not since the Wii is half the cost of the PS3, thus 6 million units is a lot more reasonable.
- crystalskull, on 10/12/2007, -1/+11They must be guessing that for every Wii, the average gamer will have 3 games to start out with. I know I'd go with Super Mario Galaxy, Twilight Princess and Metroid Prime 3.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -1/+10You did the math, but you couldn't find the figures when the article is handed to you?
The first table lists the current consoles, and their extrapolated predictions (they're all * 10'000 in case you're getting ready to tell me it says 600) and your estimated price that you "did the math" for is great thanks. I love figures derived from numbers you had no way of knowing and completely pulled out of your ass. What was your value for the production cost? How much are they willing to lose on each console? You could follow Nintendos normal formula for how much they're willing to lose based on their software predictions, but I know you didn't.
But I'm probably wrong. You probably realllllly DID just peg the end user cost for the Wii, even though the ARMY of Japanese math nerds don't know if they've got the right asking price yet. - Antialias, on 10/12/2007, -0/+9Super Mario Galaxy isn't a launch title, but perhaps it will come out before Christmas, especially if the rumors of an October launch come true.
- Pharaoh777, on 10/12/2007, -1/+10I think that's impossible if they're only going to ship 6 million by March.
- russizm, on 10/12/2007, -1/+9In May, there's this thing called E3. People play demo's of machines that aren't out yet.
PEOPLE HAVE PLAYED THE WII AND THE PS3. It's not blind intuition. - Antialias, on 10/12/2007, -1/+8This generation the PS3 may have less of a selection than the other consoles. With the huge development costs, developers are already canceling PS3 projects. Of course we won't know until 6 months after it launches, but just because ps1+2 had a good selection, doesn't mean the PS3 will.
- buss, on 10/12/2007, -1/+8weirdone: You're right, I had those numbers flipped. Doing this same calculation with the right numbers yeilds a price of over $800, which is obviously wrong. The next error would be I didn't account for all the other sales including DS Lite. Digg all my other ones down (if they weren't already).
- pgup, on 10/12/2007, -3/+10I think the actual sales figures will be well above that.
- mgillow, on 10/12/2007, -1/+8Probably due to the inclusion of Virtual Console game sales, as those still count as individual units.
- GalacticCmdr, on 10/12/2007, -2/+8Nintendo has already passed through its "evil" stage, while Sony is in the very heart of its "evil" stage. People tend to let time heal the wounds done to them by gaming companies. Nintendo, having learned their lesson, is now on the rise. Sony, looking to bend over more "customers", is on the decline for the hearts and minds.
Thus, the general feeling is that many people on various boards (at least those posting) seem to wish Nintendo well. While others, if they saw a Sony exec laid down on the road in the middle of a busy highway - would run right out into traffic just to kick them in the nuts.
Personally I will be buying a Wii, but then my kids are 5, 3, and 2 - so neither the X360 or PS3 really have as many choices for them. The games I enjoy are RTT (Total War, Combat Mission, Myth, etc.), turn-based (Korsun Pocket, etc.), and 4x (GalCiv). All games that are PC-based and not exactly something that plays decent on any console. For those few times I enjoy a good Fighting Game or Rail Shooter I can find something for the Wii that will do just as well for me. - SkeletaLlama, on 10/12/2007, -1/+7Sony predicts equal sales in the same time frame. But then again both Nintendo and Sony are simply predicting they'll sell all of their units shipped by March '07, which is six million units each. However, Sony expects the PS3 to sell 100 million units in its lifespan, that's almost as many units as the PS2 sold at half the price. I think that's an unreasonable expectation and if they've based their profit forecasts on those figures, they're in for a very nasty surprise over the next 5-6 years when their predicted source of income vanishes (Playstation accounts for the majority of Sony's profits).
- SkeletaLlama, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6Superior graphics clearly does not equal longevity. Look at Xbox, best graphics but they released their next console 2 years sooner in its lifespan than the PS2 which had the worst graphics.
Xbox - 2001
Xbox 360 - 2005
PS2 - 2000
PS3 - 2006
Clearly having the weakest graphics equals the longest lifespan. So it would seem the PS3 will live the shortest amount of time and Wii will live the longest. If graphics had any bearing what so ever on the lifespan of a console. Which they don't. - felyduw, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6@buss:
$299 ? Couldn't it be some kind of average between $250, 250€ ($316), 200£ ($370) and the japanese price? Are you taking that into consideration? - MerlynXLII, on 10/12/2007, -2/+7Nintendo already said they will ship 6 million units by March of 07. I assumed they would expect to sell that many also, so seeing it in print is really not a big deal there.
It is interesting to see an expectation of 17 million software unit sales. Wonder how they came up with that number? - EtherGnat, on 10/12/2007, -0/+5"[Quantity and quality] are not mutually exclusive...Neither is game play and graphics for that matter. Something people here seem to think don't work well together."
That is true but great gameplay and great graphics seems to require ExpensiveToys. Unfortunately since "Wedding98" I've found that ExpensiveToys causes "Wife: Nooky Qwest" to freeze (unless also running "Jewelry 2K6"). - iluvatar, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6it depends on how many they can physically manufacture. It's possible they're predicting 6 million because that's how many they can produce by march 07
- MrSketch, on 10/12/2007, -1/+6Ditto here too. People not getting those will probably be getting at least mario sports and excite truck. Of course, I'll probably be getting those two in addition to the three above, so I'd better start saving now for my Wii spending spree this fall.
- telapan, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4>>What I'm saying is that superior graphics != longevity.
My bad, I thought you were referring to high price means lack of success. - telapan, on 10/12/2007, -0/+4>>All of those people they are giving a hard time about movies and music, are the same people that buy games.
What does this mean?
Also how many units did Sony predict they would sale in the same time frame? - walterd93, on 10/12/2007, -1/+5i'd get TP, Red Steel, and Animal Crossing: Wii World.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -0/+3You write Nintendo and Sony an IOU.
- inactive, on 10/12/2007, -3/+6I'll get a decent amount of VC roms depending on price, too.
- LunarOcean, on 10/12/2007, -1/+4"And since the PlayStation's beginnings Sony has held a monopoly on some of the best software designers in the industry and lots of them."
Thing that I see, recently, is that many of those that they held in the days of the PS and early PS2 are starting to waver a bit. I don't look into this stuff a ton, but I'll use Square as an example - they jumped to Sony with the 64 cartridges and stayed there for quite awhile. They're still there, but they've been releasing stuff on Nintendo consoles more and more so - starting with Crystal Chronicles (I believe). I would not be surprised if they lose exclusives with lots of these companies - 3rd parties are, quite often, very fickle (RE4, Gamecube exclusive? Yeah, that lasted long).
Overall, Nintendo has gained third party support since the release of the Gamecube, and, as expected, much of that comes from the portable world - I don't think it's entirely fair to write them off as not having many developers when quite a few have expressed tons of interest in the system.
Sony has had selection going for them for awhile, and that may end up being the case again soon, but I don't think it will be anywhere near the current amount of games for this generation. That is, and nobody go nuts on me for this, the launch price. If I were a developer, I guarantee I'd be scared at hearing its launch price when the other two consoles will be 50% of its price at the time. It would certainly make me think about other options.
Twisted Metal 2 was a great game. - aggrazel, on 10/12/2007, -3/+5Two Words: "Neo Geo"
- DragonAura, on 10/12/2007, -0/+2Wow... 3.8 billion yen just in taxes for only one quarter. But then again, when you're taking in over 100 billion yen per quarter, I guess that doesn't seem like so much.
- telapan, on 10/12/2007, -6/+8So is everyone going to start ripping on Nintendo for making this prediction like they do for Sony? If not can you please explain why?
- AppleTamer, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3We're arguing between X-Box and PS2 classics the "quantity over quality" on those systems, yet the GC was the best example of it. Every 6 months, a fantastic, GC-exclusive game would come out. However, littered throughout the other months were loaded with crap-ass 3rd party games like "SeaWorld Adventure" and "Cubix: Robots for Everyone."
However, with the Wii's cheaper development costs and efficient tools to help all the independent developers out there, the shotgun-effect could be in full force with this generation. - jogro123, on 10/12/2007, -2/+4Probably based on average software unit sales per person and/or per console (depending on how the statistic was developed). Seeing as it's in a consolidated nintendo forecast means they are probably referring to 1st party software units sold only. It also is worth noting that software units could include games, certain software accessories and virtual console titles!
- SkeletaLlama, on 10/12/2007, -4/+6This is really pointless. 6 million units is the number of units they're shipping by March. Their prediction is that they'll sell all of those units by March. Which is typical of a newly launched console.
- aggrazel, on 10/12/2007, -2/+4What I'm saying is that superior graphics != longevity.
- telapan, on 10/12/2007, -1/+3>>Two Words: "Neo Geo"
Have you seen the infation corrected prices of the Nintendo, SNES and/or Genesis? - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -1/+2woot for that.. but actually PS has quite a few quality games many of which were remade for XBox and Gamecube consoles so don't act like they don't. :) I have all three consoles myself for the full range of the goodies.. but that's just me.
Woot for any new game gear! - stappawho, on 10/12/2007, -2/+3Well, what they are saying is you get quality and quantity.
You could have gone with an Xbox last time around and had a handful of great games or you could have gone with a PS2 and had handfuls and handfuls of great games. Or both, whatever.
They are not mutually exclusive.
Neither is game play and graphics for that matter. Something people here seem to think don't work well together. - furrot, on 10/12/2007, -4/+5Most likely they multiplied the number of predicted Wii units by the number of first party titles people are going to get uncontested. So Wii Sports/Mario Tennis, Zelda, Mario Galaxy and maybe Metroid. Then you factor in any games people have only seen a little of and secret 3rd party titles and it's not hard to imagine each console owner buying 3 games.
- Dragonspawn, on 10/12/2007, -0/+1Nice to see what everyone always says about Nintendo viewing Europe as an afterthought, proved. We have Japan, The Americas, and yes the whole rest of the world lumped into one category to prove how inconsequential they are.
I do Like Nintendo stuff (I've had everything since NES) but the way they treat Europe sucks. - supanaturalhigh, on 10/12/2007, -3/+3But have you?
- Scooter1974, on 10/12/2007, -0/+0I have made a HTML version of the file for those of you who don't want to load the PDF
http://wiihaw.com/blogs/wiihaw_blog/archive/2006/07/27/Wii_Sales_Predictions.aspx - Toad008, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1I will agree with you, on the older systems, Nintendo had poor 3rd party support compared to the ps, and ps2, but lately what I've been seeing is more 3rd party developers leaving the PS3 since it's so hard, and expensive, to develop for.
Granted it has been a little while since I have scanned the PS3 launch title list, but I think this next generation is going to see a shift away from Sony having all the best 3rd party titles. (Not saying they won't have some eg) Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, but I think the other consoles will gain some of these developers eg) GTA, Madden football ) - inactive, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Don't wii guys already have a wii that wii can play with?
Hope the VC is all it's cracked up to be, I remember pwning my brother in RC PRO AM on NES!
Ah yes, good times. - LunarOcean, on 10/12/2007, -2/+1Bah, that's what I get for not proofreading - 1 minute to edit isn't long enough x.x
I believe the launch price will have that effect on developers - not trying to state that as some fact. Also, the development costs, as mentioned, may scare some people. And we can't forget Blu-Ray putting hypotheticals in people's mind. "What if Blu-Ray fails?" is a question for them to answer. Likewise, so are other obvious ones, such as "Will the Wii do alright?" With all these sorts of things going around, I would not be surprised to see more developers go across all systems to try and give themselves at least something to fall back on if one console ends up doing poor. - telapan, on 10/12/2007, -3/+1>>I think the actual sales figures will be well above that.
How can they sell more than they make? I can't beleive that this comment go dugg a couple of times. This just goes to show that digg is a Nintendo Fanboy hangout. You guys digg anything pro-Nintendo/anti-Sony even if it doesn't make sense. -
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