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127 Comments
- billricardi, on 04/07/2009, -5/+35The very fact that the same professionals reach the upper levels (aka: 'cash') in huge event fields, year after year shows a statistical bias towards skill. These sustained performances over hundreds of months transcend the 'luck' argument.
- VsAcesoVer, on 04/07/2009, -1/+27It's ridiculous that there are still people who think poker is primarily luck-based. If it were just a game of odds, there would be the implication that people could be professional roulette-players, or professional slots-players. If you can play a game professionally, it's because there's a demand for that skill set that relatively few people have.
- JPOOPOO, on 04/07/2009, -0/+22the stock market is legal, so should be poker
- zyl0x, on 04/07/2009, -2/+22Poker may be more skill-based than luck-based, but you have to admit that there is significantly more luck involved in poker than other skill-based games such as soccer, or chess.
- sheeplescareme, on 04/07/2009, -6/+25of course it's skill-based. put someone who doesn't play often at a table with someone who does and watch what happens - it's a lot more than knowing the rules.
- PizzaEagle, on 04/07/2009, -7/+25Poker? But i hardly know 'er!
- GhettoOverlord, on 04/07/2009, -4/+22Ehh, poker got boring. I'm really into this cup and ball now. Whoa! Wow! Man, you never know which way this crazy ball's going to go!
- superkendall, on 04/07/2009, -0/+17Someone lost a ton playing online poker I see.
- h4x2d4m4x, on 04/07/2009, -1/+17dont bluff the calling stations then..
- Evazan21, on 04/07/2009, -0/+14Please post statistically significant data verifying your statement. Until then please don't make any other ignorant comments.
- billricardi, on 04/07/2009, -0/+11Well. There are professional slots players and professional roulette players. I'll explain, very briefly.
Professional slots players calculate the point at which major progressive jackpots roll past the break even; where playing on those machines is 'worth' more than what they put into the machine, and the value of their time. The skill here is research, calculation, and organizing your slots teams.
Professional roulette players bank on something called 'wheel bias'. If a casino does not maintain their table properly, it warps (or the wheel develops imperfections). By tracking the long term results, professional roulette players can figure out which 2 numbers will come up more often than others. If it reaches a point that exceeds the house edge, they bet tens of thousands of dollars in a matter of hours to take advantage of the bias.
Hmmm. I think I've given away my professional gaming background. :) - VsAcesoVer, on 04/07/2009, -0/+8No. They aren't. You just see a lot more hands when you play online because the play is so much faster. More trials => greater chance of seeing something unlikely.
- kengineer, on 04/07/2009, -0/+8The only 4 rules you need to know:
1. Know when to hold em
2. Know when to fold em
3. Know when to walk away
4. know when to run - Pugmonkeys, on 04/07/2009, -1/+9I'm stunned by your ignorance. Poker is so much more then, as you so brilliantly put it, "knowing the odds". Its an incredibly complex multi layered game where there are consistent winners. As soon as you introduce the human element the game becomes beatable.
If it was all luck, how would it be possible for there to be consistent winners? And I'm saying every month like clockwork making 10k plus.
The worst thing you have in your post is your "minimal amount of skill" garbage. It takes incredible amounts of skill, dedication, ability to adapt, awareness and fortitude to play poker and win consistently. Why not take a couple grand of your money, load it up online and play. You will learn verrrryy quickly how much skill it takes to win at this game. - SteveMTyler, on 04/07/2009, -5/+13From what I've seen, you just end up pissing off the person who knows how to play because the other person isn't betting right and picking up his bluffs by not knowing what his raises are supposed to mean.
- TheHerk, on 04/07/2009, -1/+8This is true and very funny but the person who "knows how to play" is often just some arrogant ***** that picked up an out-print-copy of Supersystem in hardback, never even read past chapter two, then proceeded to act like he knows everything about the game. He ends up sounding the Mike the Mouth, when in reality the player making all the wrong, but lucky calls is generally just a guy who knows the rules, some basics, and some statistics playing logically against some loudmouth that claims to be "skillful" at poker.
- Brassbud, on 04/07/2009, -0/+7I don't know, I always win at poker and I'm not that skilled. My secret is whenever it's time to show your cards, I insist that I have the best hand. Sometimes there are people that disagree, but I just shoot them and take their money anyway.
- daltonmc, on 04/07/2009, -1/+7People who are interested in it, which is a wide margin. Just like people who watch golf and bowling watch those things because they are interested in it, only poker is more accessible to people because anyone can play.
- ajwinder, on 04/07/2009, -0/+6Which is why looking at individual tournament wins is ridiculous especially in packed fields. Look at lifetime winnings. What the *****'s moneymaker won since the bracelet? And how much does someone like Negreanu or Scotty Nguyen win over a lifetime?
- acknotSW, on 04/07/2009, -1/+6I did that on super bowl Sunday, cleaned out my father, 3 uncles, 2 of my dad’s friends, and 2 of my friends all of whom play poker with each other and at casinos on a regular basis. This was the second time in my life playing poker. I just kept coming up with great hands time after time and bet to the limit unless I had a total ***** hand. I agree with steveMTyler though, it becomes more a game of skill when skilled players are the only ones playing. If everyone would have started with $100 instead of $30, it’s likely the cards would have turned against me and I would have been crushed.
It's kind of like playing pool. At a certain level, most of the luck is eliminated from the game and it comes down to the better shot maker, better position player, better thinker. The players try to anticipate what their opponent will try to do when placed in a certain situation. When a skilled player who knows the moves and knows how to maximize his chances plays a banger (he might even be a good banger) all his strategy and planning gets tossed right out the window the first time the banger gets to the table. You can't predict what shot the banger will try in any given situation so it comes down to blind luck, when the banger fires away at some crazy shot that no sane player would ever try, if he completely resets the table and makes it next to impossible for his opponent to win or sells out the rack. The banger doesn’t know that he's not supposed to move a ball if he doesn't have to move a ball. If he does that 2 or 3 times and gets lucky, he can make it very tough for even a very good player to run out. In a long race or over many games, the skilled player will win more often than the banger, but In a short race anything can happen. - kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+5chance on what hand you get, not chance in how it is played
all players get the same number of good and bad hands in the long run - vertinox, on 04/07/2009, -0/+5Poker is a game of skill and chance.
The skill is knowing when your chances are good and when they are not.
And knowing how to read other people's opinion on their chances.
Still... If you keep getting crap hands, even the most skilled player can't win if the other player simply plays good hands. The difference between him and the unskilled player is that he knows when to fold.
Side note: If you want to ruin a good poker game but still make it out positive gain, then play only call on the first hand if you have two of a kind and fold immediately if someone raises if you don't have 3 as soon as you draw the cards after the discard.
And then only raise yourself when you have really good hands (3 of a kind)
The other players immediately recognize when you have good hands and will tend to fold immediately so they won't fight your raises and fold.
Its going to be rare that they will get a royal flush or 4 of a kind, so over the long term you'll be in the positive regardless if they try to bluff you.
That usually takes the fun out of it because no one is bluffing...
And no one will invite you back to the game after that even though not much money changed hands ;) - dazparkour, on 04/07/2009, -0/+5Yes, but if you start with £2000, you'll not survive for a long time on luck - you need to know when to raise and when to fold, that's not luck.
- CoD4, on 04/07/2009, -1/+6Next up, chess is based on luck
- Trifold, on 04/07/2009, -0/+5Has anyone repeated making it to the final table since the poker boom and the mass of amateur players showed up? Not trying to troll, just curious. It just seems like whenever I watch it on ESPN, pro after pro gets knocked out after some "unskilled" guy makes some play he's not "supposed" to make and wipes him out.
Not denying there is SOME level of skill in poker, but if you asked me to predict my odds of winning between 100 hands against Gus Hansen or 100 games of chess against Garry Kasparov, I'd take my chances with the former. - kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+5a) tell me how often that happens and what the odds are
b) also, tell me if the pocket aces man is reading bets and raises correctly
c) you're a moron - Kishoba, on 04/07/2009, -0/+4You're are just plain absurd. Online gambling sites have some of the most inherently random generated values possible. Many of them specifically discuss how they generate their randomness as it's important to clients to ensure that they are not playing a fixed game or one that could be exploited by mathemetical models. One in particular I remember reading that was extremely interesting was listed on ParadisePoker's website. Very informative. You wouldn't believe the effort they go through to introduce entropy into their RNG.
- kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+4except there are few with real skill in the stock market. warren buffet is the obvious example.
I always liked the dart challenge where throwing darts at a dartboard beat "pro" stock pickers on a consistent basis. - Flagg3, on 04/07/2009, -1/+5The argument that poker is not skill based is completely inane. As a matter of fact, it's very simple to prove that poker is skill based.
Simply go to any of the independent poker tracking sites, such as sharkscope.com, then choose one of the leaderboard leaders and look at their historical charts. The players all have one thing in common, their charts show that not only are they profitable, but the profits all trend steadily and consistently UPWARD over time. It is mathematically impossible for anyone to win consistently in a luck based game, and yet thousands of people do it day in and day out. - pault107, on 04/07/2009, -0/+4Either that or you own a casino and are trying to dupe us into spending more money at your establishment.
You crafty bugger :) - superkendall, on 04/07/2009, -1/+5Mark Twain on Science Vs. Luck (in regards to Poker):
http://pokerplayersalliance.org/pdf/EPSTEIN1.pdf
The best part:
"It is the deliberate opinion of this jury, that the ‘chance’
theory . . . is a pernicious doctrine, and calculated to inflict untold
suffering and pecuniary loss upon any community that takes stock in
it." - kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+4I hope that was sarcasm.
Try doing that every day for 8 hours for 5 years straight.
It's called pot odds, and it's why the pros get more bad beats than poor players. They only play good hands so they only get beat by someone getting lucky and getting a better hand, and they play pot odds so that the number of wins is insignificant to the amount won when playing the odds. - inactive, on 04/07/2009, -0/+4You DO realize that the E in ESPN stands for "entertainmnet", right/ And that has never claimed to be a sports exclusive TV station.
And based on how they cover sprots, maybe they should drop the sports altoether. They can become the "Bad Sportsmanship, trash talk, all slam dunk" network. That is all they focus on in their highlights as it is. NEver the plays that ACTUALLY determined the outcome of the game.
And wakeup...that may be why people are digging him down. It is not a secret that ESPN covers plenty of non-sports. The Spelling Bee, Scrabble Championship, competitve eating, etc. - Furman82, on 04/07/2009, -0/+4The article clearly states that after 1000 hands, there is a noticeable divergence between those who are successful and those who are not. Clearly, only playing the game twice, you failed you reach a sufficient amount of hands where the skill aspect of the game overtakes the luck aspect of the game.
Knowing when to call or fold is a skill... being able to recognize patterns and "read" your competition is only one aspect to being a skilled player. You also need to be able to calculate the odds of winning versus the odds that the pot is giving you. If there are only a couple of cards in the deck that you feel will make you the victor, a fold might be in order, even if you sense your competition might be bluffing, because the pot isn't giving you the odds to call... - jeffwmartin, on 04/07/2009, -1/+4I got beat by a straight flush in Tunica 3 weeks ago. Not trying to disprove your point, I'm just still pissed about it. I had an Ace high flush, with the Ace in my hand.
- mdelling, on 04/07/2009, -1/+4If it can be lost intentionally, it is not luck based, and therefore must be skill based.
- billricardi, on 04/08/2009, -0/+3THAT sir, is more crafty than I'm capable of. :) (scribbles it down for later)
- Flagg3, on 04/07/2009, -0/+3Umm, wrong. AA is SUPPOSED to lose to 72offsuit 12.4% of the time if all of the money goes in preflop. That's why there are situations in tournament poker where it is completely the correct move to fold to an all in bet preflop with AA, EVEN IF YOU KNOW THE OTHER PLAYER HAS 72offsuit! (Like, on the money bubble, depending on the tournament structure.)
Saying that because AA loses to 72offsuit ONE TIME makes the game a game of luck is about as accurate as saying that Basketball is a game of luck because I can make a single free throw and the best player in the world could potentially miss that same free throw. Ignore the fact that I will only make 12% of my free throws in the long term, and he will make 87% or more - If I make one and he misses it the game is luck? Ridiculous.
The same argument can be made for ANY game of skill. I can beat a professional bowler on one frame, a professional golfer on one hole but none of that changes the fact that I will lose most of the time in the long run. - kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+3lmao, playing positive odds is luck?
you're a goddamn moron, I'm posting your response so that others can get a laugh as well! - inactive, on 04/07/2009, -1/+4Whenever the luck v. skill argument comes up, I always think of that line from Rounders: "Why does this still seem like gambling to you? I mean, why do you think the same five guys make it to the final table of the World Series of Poker EVERY SINGLE YEAR? What, are they the luckiest guys in Las Vegas? It's a skill game, Jo"
- kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+3one hand is always luck, a few thousand is skill, just like card counting.
not getting the cards? in the long run we all get the same number of good and bad hands, it's how you play them. - inactive, on 04/07/2009, -0/+3The past three years! Wow! So...you have been all over this game ever since the fad started DYING
- vijskan, on 04/07/2009, -0/+3its a game of both skill and luck. even though knowledge of the game and probabilities plays a huge role, pre flop no hand is guaranteed to win which is where the gambling aspect comes into play, especially in NL games.
i also see a few comments on how many pros are consistantly in the finals.
dont get me wrong, i believe these players are masters at the game (Phil Ivey, Gus Hansen) but the financial ability to buy in at the top tier as opposed to qualifying through various other tournaments definately influences your odds of sucess. - lucky2222, on 04/08/2009, -0/+2Its clearly a game of chance, that when played requires skill to know when you can take the pot. Thats the biggest problem they are having in defining it. Its both a game of chance and skill.
- RagManX, on 04/08/2009, -0/+2That's so true, although I must admit that I couldn't my money when I was sitting at the table.
- whiskeythief, on 04/08/2009, -0/+2During a poker tournament with a friend of mine, an older gentleman, I told him "There is no crying in poker".
He just looked at me and said "Oh yes there is". - kinerry, on 04/07/2009, -0/+2the odds of that are in the billions, no joke
royal over quads is over 3bil - Genma, on 04/08/2009, -0/+2that's how you find the posers, real players will just adapt and take advantage instead of giving their money away to luck. some would rather bitch at a bad beat than keep their mouth shut and bank on those who keep on making the same mistakes.
- whiskeythief, on 04/08/2009, -0/+2Playing tight early in a tournament causes you to earn "fold equity". You can use it for bluffing later in the tournament.
- ajwinder, on 04/07/2009, -0/+21. It's Limit, I mean, limit isolates calling stations from what you normally do to get those people to stop screwing around.
2. Who plays a full-rack game of pool without having to call shots? Unless its 9-ball, in which case, who the hell cares, you're probably drunk if you're doing that... :P -
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