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128 Comments
- chicagojack, on 03/31/2009, -6/+43Prices are no where near bottom
- Wolt, on 03/31/2009, -5/+22I read this as "Still Crashing, Or Is It a Good Time to Buy a Horse?"
Oh well. - BetterOffEd, on 03/31/2009, -5/+21A: Still crashing.
Even *with* the 8K tax credit, you may still be better off waiting. - ATL, on 06/20/2009, -1/+15If you can afford it vs. renting, and can get a fixed pmt you can be comfortable with, I'd say buy. Even if the value goes down, you get stability (if you have stable income) vs BS rent price fluctuations.
There are no guarantees, but yeah... it probably will go down more, but who knows if you will be able to still get a loan at the rates you can now... - kent1146, on 03/31/2009, -4/+16My philosophy:
The perfect time to buy a house is when you need a house. The important part about price is how much you sell for... not how much you buy for. - inactive, on 03/31/2009, -3/+14experts and facts don't seem to back up your comment. But I guess I will trust your gut feelings, based on absolutely NO expertise or experience
- geoffg, on 03/31/2009, -2/+13Still crasing...hard.
With absolutely nothing to get excited about to save us except emerging markets. - diggydougie, on 03/31/2009, -1/+12Here's my argument for buying (at any time). I bought my hours over a decade ago for 60,000.00.
Along the way I ran up some credit card debt and refinced the house to pay it off.
My principal is now around 60,000.00.
No progress you say?
The house is currently worth 110,000 so I have equity even in the current mess.
If I were not to have bought the house I would have still spent the same amount of money (gotta live somewhere). - paisleyunderdog, on 03/31/2009, -0/+9I'd think it's a great time to buy if you're looking for you know...a place to LIVE!
If it's all about making money, I'm not sure there's ever a good time to buy. - gregoryan, on 03/31/2009, -3/+12If you have the resources (I would like to emphasize that making $1600/month and having a $1600/month mortgage does not mean you have the resources) it's a very good time to buy if you're willing to stay put for some years to come.
- timbellomo, on 03/31/2009, -2/+11www.doctorhousingbubble.com projects a 2011 bottom for California.
This guy's been calling it since 2005 - I highly encourage you to check it out. - jwolcott, on 04/01/2009, -2/+9It's still 35% over-priced!
- Calcularius, on 03/31/2009, -2/+9Unless you plan on dying in the next 3-4 years, now is a great time to buy a house.
- inactive, on 03/31/2009, -0/+6But you are giving just ONE side of the argument. What if, instead of buying, you had rented and put the difference into sensible stocks. Now, obviously with the last few months, things have changed. But it is NOT always the case that buying is better simply because you now have an asset. It is entirely possible that renting and investing the difference will yield MORE assets than you have in the house.
You act as if your rent would have been the same as a mortgage. And that is highly unlikely.
Again, I am not saying you personally made the wrong decision. Just that your argument that it is always correct is wrong. - inactive, on 03/31/2009, -0/+6If you want to buy MY home I say BUY and NOW! Otherwise I'd say go ahead buy, you smart real estate economy guys know so much more than the rest of us. You can make MILLIONS! or more! The line starts behind me, what's the first bid?
- diggduggDOOM, on 03/31/2009, -0/+6In my area, that $8k is nice but doesn't do much for the $300k+ homes that are actually something you might want to buy.
- davewelsh79, on 04/01/2009, -0/+5@diggydougie
Rent is nowhere near the monthly cost of buying a house. Typical price-to-rent ratios are still in the 20s. Say it's 25. That means a $300,000 house costs about $1000/month to rent.
To buy that house, you'd have to pay about 1.5% in property taxes, 0.75% in insurance, and 2% in upkeep. That's $1062.5/month right there, and we haven't even paid the mortgage yet!
This is why housing hasn't fallen anywhere near enough yet. Price-to-rent ratios should be somewhere from 12 to 16, not 25 or 30 or 36 like they were last year.
Maybe the price-to-rent ratio for some particular properties is in line with reality, but the national average is still way too high in Canada and the US. - handheldchimp, on 03/31/2009, -0/+5Just because you revealed my future plans, doesn't mean I am going to quit on them...
- handheldchimp, on 03/31/2009, -4/+8What is your area of expertise to second guess other Diggers?!?!
Seriously though, he is right. With California and Florida losing on AVERAGE 50% of the homes value, they could be losing 80% of the homes value on AVERAGE...it can easily get way worse. - vectorz, on 04/01/2009, -0/+48k is nothing when your house is depreciating 2% of 1million monthly. do the math. -20k monthly
- dorianh49, on 04/01/2009, -0/+4I haven't bought a donkey yet. When would be a good time to buy one of those?
- chanop, on 03/31/2009, -1/+5I'm closing on a foreclosure right now. I got the property for dirt cheap and it's appraised at 300k right now. Even if it goes down another 150k I'm doubling what I'm paying for it. The best part is I'm not taking it from someone who foreclosed and got kicked out. Just some rich ***** who decided not to pay for it anymore (rich people don't care about good credit). I'm excited about it. There are good deals out there, but there will be better deals ahead.
- palmer, on 04/01/2009, -0/+4It's not "crashing." It's CORRECTING. Real estate is STILL overpriced compared to where it would have been with normal historical appreciation.
- PacketPaul, on 03/31/2009, -2/+6Wow, that article said absolutely nothing useful. How about hard facts, data and some analysis?
Here is an idea. Housing prices from 1890 to 2000 followed the rate of inflation. But in 2000 housing started deviating from that trend until the bubble burst. If you want to find out what a house should be worth, take the value of the house (or a comp) in 1999 and compound in the rate of inflation since 1999 (about 3%). That is roughly what the house should be worth today. - dangero, on 04/01/2009, -1/+5The fact that loan rates are so good right now indicates how artificially overvalued the market is. When interest rates return to normal (go up), then buying power of the average person will go down, and in turn housing prices, since demand will be lower due to inability for people to get qualified.
It's better to buy a house you can afford when interest rates are as high as possible. That way when rates go down you can refinance and end up with a really small monthly payment and most likely an increased home value due to the increased demand caused by the low interest rate. - BESTenemy, on 04/01/2009, -0/+4 Unemployment increases and incomes of those still employed are getting reduced. People that are unemployed don't spend. They don't buy houses, they don't buy cars. People that are worried about losing their jobs don't do any of those things either. The sentiment is worsening and along with the the demand for everything is getting crushed.
The housing market is not going to recover until the employment numbers improve, and judging by the current state of things the bottom is not even on the horizon. We're still accelerating downward. No housing market recovery any time soon. If we were to reverse the employment trend this very minute (flip the curve tangent), it would take till 2012 for it to flatten. - jasdf, on 04/01/2009, -1/+5It is NEVER a good time to buy a horse, those things are eating machines. They will eat your ass into the poor house.
- phish3r, on 04/01/2009, -0/+3You would only have 0 equity if you were taking the entire difference between rental prices and owning prices and spending that delta on booze and hookers...
I dunno maybe you would've and that's where all the credit card debt came from? - chlsmith, on 04/01/2009, -1/+4If you are only now deciding to buy a house, this would indicate to me that you are currently renting. Here's what I think: if you have the credit, go get yourself a house with a payment you can afford and live there! Don't go out to find a place to make a bunch of money on; go out and buy an affordable home and STAY THERE!
I've never understood the idea of buying a home as an investment, nor do I understand the idea of a "starter home." (Actually, the idea of a "starter home" is pure marketing BS made up by the real estate industry to get people to keep up with the Jones' and buy bigger houses when they get more money. In other words, it's a crock.) Buy something decent, have some pride in it, and take care of it. If you live there 20 years and sell it, I promise that you will come out ahead money-wise, but that shouldn't be your main priority anyway.
Once you have a HOME, feel free to buy up other properties as investments. Buying REAL ESTATE is not the same as buying "a house." Get some apartments, some rental property, or a fixer-upper and attempt to flip it. Just don't screw around with your own home; you will be buying what used to be a home, as those people move into your apartment. - john214, on 03/31/2009, -0/+3I think if your dying now might be a great time to buy a house and max out your cards. Why live the rest of your life in shams if you know your going?
- Zymophideth, on 04/01/2009, -1/+4House prices are based off wages and fake credit(bubble), companies are cutting salaries and unemployment is going up. The Baby Boomers are beginning to hit retirement age. Those savings they had in the stock market, gone. Social Security, not enough. What do they have? Their homes, but they'll need to sell them to make money. Just means more homes on the market.
People unable to afford homes + More Homes on the market = Home prices dropping further.
The Gov is trying to blow more air into the bubble by printing money and giving tax incentives but the hole is there and that bubble needs to fully deflate before it can be repaired.
- Ineedanap, on 03/31/2009, -1/+4Yeah, and expert's and facts couldn't warn us of the current crisis.
- shig, on 04/01/2009, -0/+3If rent cost $.01 a month, and to buy cost $10million, you would be better off renting.
Saying that buying is always justified is just as fallacious as saying that prices always tend toward equilibrium. Obvious untruths. - HopeForTomorrow, on 03/31/2009, -0/+3Ah well, I always figure homes are those things you should always buy. People are always going to need a place to live. If you don't need one to live in one, buy it and rent it out at a reasonable price, they won't always be this low, and if you can afford to pay the mortgage (by making some profit out of renting), then you can turn a small profit when housing eventually goes back up.
- loki49152, on 03/31/2009, -2/+5Which experts? Please, tell me who can actually predict the market's pricing behavior accurately. I want to hire this person immediately and make myself a bajillionaire.
- palmer, on 04/01/2009, -1/+4"Firesale prices"? BULLCRAP.
All of a sudden, the media and politicians have forgotten how grossly overpriced real estate has been FOR YEARS. The fact is that it's STILL overpriced.
Call us when prices have corrected to where they would have been with normal appreciation rates since 2000 or so. - mikelist, on 03/31/2009, -1/+4my son and his gf paid cash for a reasonable house, it was under $11,000. bank repo, but in a former time it was a 50grander.
meanwhile, me and the missus have a little more mortgage than ours is worth, but not nearly as bad as some stories i've heard. most of those folks have moved on, though. - VipeNess, on 03/31/2009, -1/+4just bought a house 65% under the original value. talk about living free.
- j0hn33y, on 04/01/2009, -0/+3Yeah but 60k 10 years ago was worth more than 110K in todays inflated dollars.
You don't make money on "owning" a house. You just hold an asset that has a real declining value. - diggydougie, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2The market price only really matters to a first time buyer.
If you already have a house to trade it will be worth a lot in a high market, and not so much in a down. But that's ok, the one you are buying is subject to the same forces. So by having a house you are pretty much immune to the market fluctuations. - ATL, on 06/20/2009, -0/+2OR
buy a house you can afford when the interest rates are low so you can have a nice low steady monthly payment
there are many ways to do these things, I'm not trying to say your statement is wrong or right or mine for that matter, but there are negative and positive views for most situations, and you need to just do what works best for you
I bought a house in Jan '06 in one of the hardest-hit states in the USA, boy does that suck. I would much prefer to be buying something now. - davewelsh79, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2For anyone interested, here's a listing of several US metropolitan areas and their recent average price-to-rent ratios and the 15-year averages: http://www.time.com/time/pricerentratio/pricerentr ...
If your area's ratio is higher than its 15-year average, that will tend to push prices further down. If your ratio is over 16 or so, you will make more money by renting and investing the savings in a varied portfolio that returns about 5% per year. - isurfaddict, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2Just paid for my first house today! Cant wait for it to be ready ;)
- techweenie, on 04/01/2009, -1/+3If you can afford to lose your entire downpayment -- and maybe double that amount -- and feel fine about it, by all means, buy!
- dangero, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2In my area (Los Angeles) $8k, and low interest rate does nothing when home prices are 600k+ for homes that you might actually want to buy.
- richardstaboner, on 04/01/2009, -2/+4There are a lot of experts that don't agree with your experts.
- teh_techie, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2I agree with Grym11 actually. Don't believe the ***** that gets spewed onto the news. Those are puppets talking.
- Dustin00, on 04/01/2009, -2/+4Considering the next article to hit front page is "Breaking: Chicago Sun-Times files for bankruptcy"
Still Crashing. - chupavacas, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2Sure it's a great time to buy... if you like catching falling knives.
- diggydougie, on 04/01/2009, -0/+2Funny how the places hit the hardest are the very same that ran up the most in the boom. For the rest of us this is all a non-event.
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