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69 Comments
- peschelnet, on 07/14/2009, -1/+18Isn't there an article on the front page saying that this is going to last until 2020? It's good to see that their guess is as good as mine.
- Janinco, on 07/14/2009, -7/+23I don't believe anything the media reports.
The continued job losses tell the real story. - Taiyoryu, on 07/14/2009, -0/+9Unemployment is a lagging indicator. By the time unemployment goes down, the economy is already well on its way to recovery.
- fr0mundacheese, on 07/14/2009, -1/+10Someone enlighten me to what has actually changed to "Spin-Around" the economy.
- drmangrum, on 07/14/2009, -1/+9Hrm, conflicting stories http://digg.com/d1wbmV
Which to believe? - dienaked, on 07/14/2009, -2/+9You would think that Goldman Sachs record setting $3.4Billion profit, less than a year after they almost brought down the entire world's financial system must mean the recovery is already here.
- borez, on 07/14/2009, -1/+8Nope, wrong. I have several drinking mates who are bankers, one who's an macro-economist and another who ( up until recently ) was a hedge fund manager in the City ( London) and according to them and the chatter they're privy too, we are: " More ***** then we could ever possibly imagine," and will be for a very long time coming... That is if we actually can ever recover without the Chinese talking our place, because there's talk of that too.
FTR: What my mates divulge over long drinking sessions actually scares the ***** out of me. - UselessTrivia, on 07/14/2009, -1/+7Jobs are a lagging indicator of the economy's overall health.
Every recession ends before it starts creating jobs again.
If GDP goes positive again by the end of the year, it might take another year or two before unemployment reaches pre-recession levels.
I know that sounds wrong and counter-intuitive. How can the recession be over if 10% of the population is still unemployed? But think of it like this: Recession is basically a term that describes the contraction of GDP. Once GDP stops shrinking, the recession is "over". Even if it turns positive again, it takes time before you recover back to where you were before the shrinking started.
So the recession ending and the economy recovering to its pre-recession levels are completely separate things.
So what these people are saying is: GDP will turn modestly positive, which will start to stimulate a small amount of new job creation, but that takes a while to show it's effects. Companies have to end their hiring freezing, interview candidates, etc...so it will take months in some cases before those new jobs are filled and start reducing unemployment. - smithfly114, on 07/14/2009, -0/+6I love how this story is about 10 stories newer than the "depression until 2020" story.
- jsffive, on 07/14/2009, -0/+5Tell me, do ANY of the people who are predicting recovery stand to lose their jobs if they are wrong?
?
Of course not. No economist ever lost his job by inaccurately predicting a BOOM.
The article completely neglected the fact that in the second half of this year, MORE mortgage rates are expected to reset, and the foreclosures that may result from those foreclosures may very well cause yet another credit crisis, if those banks heavily invested in CDOs haven't shored up their reserves well enough. - Cputerace, on 07/14/2009, -2/+7How about we stop listening to those who didnt see this whole mess coming and instead listen to what those who did see it coming have to say.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=peter+ ... - logic11, on 07/14/2009, -0/+4I used to work for one of the big banks... number 2 actually. Some of the stuff that the investment guys talked about changed me from a happy motorist to a wacked out survivalist type (although I am still having trouble convincing my fiance to let me grow crops in the front yard). Suffice to say, don't count on a recovery in the near or even eventual future. Might want to start growing food and learning some... older skills, like tanning hides and blacksmithing.
- TroyPDX, on 07/14/2009, -0/+4Your guess is actually probably better than theirs. Their 'predictions' tend to line up with what's in the best interest of whoever is signing their checks.
- Cputerace, on 07/14/2009, -3/+7Exactly.
How about we stop listening to those who didnt see this whole mess coming and instead listen to what those who did see it coming have to say.
http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=peter+ ... - FMtriple, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3As far as jobs go, I feel that many companies used the sour market to "cut the fat." I remember talking to a friend about her job at a large university hospital and told me how a co-worker was lazy and didn't do anything, but was difficult to fire her due to employee rights and not wanting to get sued. I think the markets will begin to recover, but won't mean jack ***** to our employers and us who won't get a bailout if we start spending like its 1999.
- tecratour, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3Get ready for high gas prices.
- Rudegar, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3 wiseman: economy! economy, speak to me!
Brave, brave economy! You shall not have died in vain!
economy: Uh, I'm-I'm not quite dead, sir.
wiseman: Well, you shall not have been mortally wounded in vain!
economy: Uh, I-I think uh, I could pull through, sir.
wiseman: Oh, I see.
economy: Actually, I think I'm all right to come with you--
wiseman: No, no, sweet economy! Stay here! I will send help as
soon as I have accomplished a daring and heroic rescue in my own
particular... (sigh)
economy: Idiom, sir?
wiseman: Idiom!
economy: No, I feel fine, actually, sir.
wiseman: Farewell, sweet economy!
economy: I'll-uh, I'll just stay here, then, shall I, sir? Yeah. - dienaked, on 07/14/2009, -1/+4You need to rephrase that:
We aren't doing a second stimulus quite yet. - publiclurker, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3Of course that is not much of a comfort to those who happen to be unemployed.
- dienaked, on 07/14/2009, -2/+5The one where Obama says unemployment will keep going up.
http://digg.com/d1wgip - AnotherDiggGuy, on 07/14/2009, -3/+6Lol, recovery. Is that what they call hundreds of thousands of job losses per month these days? I was wondering what Obama was talking about. But in all seriousness, clearly the author/website is a tool.
- newmanium2001, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3HA!
http://digg.com/business_finance/The_Economy_Accor ... - borez, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3Yep you don't say, if anyone ever tells me to put on a tin foil hat when It comes down to what has actually just gone on behind the scenes within the financial sector, I'll laugh my ass off, because it defies ***** belief.
It literally was/is: The crime of the century. Period. - dmm219, on 07/14/2009, -0/+3You'd have a record profit as well if:
1) You personally assumed NO risk at all for your work (tax payer beared all the risk)
2) Someone else gave you billions of dollars for doing nothing and providing no useful services at all
oh, and hope you enjoyed paying that $2000 of your own money in taxes last year so that a Goldman Sacs employee could maintain a 700k+ salary and lifestyle, for basically destroying the entire banking system last year and doing nothing of real value for anyone... - Ebacherville, on 07/14/2009, -0/+2Nope the derivatives haven't blown up yet.. just wait.. they will.. then it will get bad..
- mantis108, on 07/14/2009, -0/+2Really, gee that's funny, a Nobel Prize winning economist was on Colbert last night saying the ***** opposite.
- buckrogers1965, on 07/15/2009, -0/+2Thanks for that link. Amazing that they would advertise for bogus jobs.
- MothBoy, on 07/14/2009, -1/+3Interesting that the article above this one is titled: "The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think"
- monvalley, on 07/14/2009, -2/+4Media reports go like this: Republican Administration; 4.5% unemployment, the sky is falling, we are all doomed, there is no hope. Democatic Administration; 9.5% unemployment, dead silence except that hope is on the way.
- fiatjustitia, on 07/15/2009, -0/+2actually, a lot of people are finding out that a lot of these temp agencies/hiring agencies are completely full of it:
http://digg.com/business_finance/Does_AppleOne_Adv ... - stonebear, on 07/14/2009, -0/+2I predict November; the collapse of the retail sector based on virtually absent Christmas sales projections being just the fuse.
- dmm219, on 07/14/2009, -1/+3funny, the silence is deafening isn't it?
Ask CNBC. - stonebear, on 07/14/2009, -0/+2You didn't read the fine print at the bottom of the bailout:
*Some restrictions apply; visit whatever your bank is now for details. Not everyone will experience recovery. Recovery not valid in FL, NY, AZ, CA, NV. - tecratour, on 07/15/2009, -0/+2What the *****? This has nothing to do with politics. GTFO. I'm not even going to ***** start with all that's wrong with this comment.
- Barackalypse, on 07/14/2009, -0/+2I'm sorry, but "predicted" GDP gains next year in some cities that weren't particularly hard hit by the recession is not evidence of a recovery. Earlier this year I saw some "predicted" unemployment numbers trying to justify spending $800 billion and now 6 months later unemployment is way worse than those statistics suggested it would be if we acted.
- eastwood24, on 07/14/2009, -1/+3Okay two of their sources are Fox News analysis of GAO reports and the Consumer Confidence Index. I would never trust either of these sources as a reliable indicator of a potential recovery.
- SwampAss, on 07/14/2009, -0/+1We need a large part of the worlds population to go away.
- buckrogers1965, on 07/15/2009, -0/+1I'd say that you are not in recovery until you start seeing a monthly gain in jobs instead of month losses. The hemorrhage slowing down just means you are taking longer to bleed out.
- buckrogers1965, on 07/15/2009, -0/+1Until I get a job I am not going to believe that things are better, no matter how the news agencies spin things. Right now large professional employment agencies are going full months without getting people jobs. They aren't saying that in the news.
- Chezowan, on 07/14/2009, -1/+2There's like 45 articles on the front page saying the recession is both over, and not likely to end for 10 more years. All of this speculation is a waste of time
- buckrogers1965, on 07/15/2009, -0/+1Start with just a little 4x4 raised garden one year and expanded it 4x4 every year after that.
- aleatoric, on 07/14/2009, -0/+1Things are going to get better before they get worse. Wait, that's not how the expression goes...
- felman87, on 07/14/2009, -3/+4Whichever one gets you elected in 2010
- SwampAss, on 07/14/2009, -0/+1sort of like predicting the weather 100 years from now.
- fiatjustitia, on 07/15/2009, -0/+1I found the blog after looking up yahoo reviews for my local appleone office. After being laid off, I registered with them, giving them every minuscule detail about every single job i've ever had. They took my information, told me that they'd call me, and they just ignored me. Apparently, this is normal for them: they take down your info, and pretend you don't exist.
- inactive, on 07/14/2009, -0/+1Predicting "doom" is one thing, precisely laying out how the whole thing is going to go down is another. His books are quite prescient, and I agree that we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg. Our fundamentals are a mess.
- Cputerace, on 07/15/2009, -0/+1"Maybe because Peter Schiff is *usually* wrong?"
source? - TexanRudeBoy, on 07/14/2009, -0/+1His investment history would say otherwise.
- mlvassallo, on 07/14/2009, -0/+1No, that's cool. Dig me down. It certainly does prove your point. Because you know, an unemployment rate always grows that fast for no reason at all.
Retard.
Take a ***** economics class. - Grym11, on 07/15/2009, -0/+1The fact that the unemployment rate is a lagging economic indicator shouldn't make you jump to the opposite conclusion that a recovery is underway. For that you need other evidence, and I have yet to see any from what I've read that would lead one to believe we're in the clear.
Most other economic indicators are down. The one exception is the stock market via indexes like Dow Jones Industrial. And even there, most analysts I've read agree that the these markets are undergoing another round of increased speculation and "irrational exuberance" (i.e. another bubble).
But, more importantly, what has changed? What fundamental reform has happened? The fact of the matter is that the same deregulated, corrupt environment that produced the financial collapse last fall exists today. No significant legislation has been passed. Nobody responsible has gone to jail. In fact, most of the same people and institutions that caused the mess are still in power and running the show. Until we see specific reforms such as the reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act or the repeal of the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, it's pretty safe to say that we will continue to see economic instability. -
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